AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

1/15/2026: Gold dips after jobless claims

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.2% to close under $4,617 after lower-than-expected jobless claims lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, spurring traders to take profits from bullion's rise to a new all-time high of $4,646.30 yesterday. Silver gained 1% to finish at $91.87, another record.

First-time filings for unemployment benefits fell last week to under 198,000, the lowest level in six weeks, suggesting that the labor market might be stabilizing. Any number under 200,000 is considered historically low. Continuing claims fell 19,000 to 1.88 million.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said today that stable unemployment means the Fed can focus on "the most important thing," which is "to get inflation back to 2%." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, also speaking Thursday, echoed this perspective.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose on the prospect that a solidifying labor market means that the Fed can hold off on further rate cuts for now. Fed funds futures traders project two quarter-point cuts for 2026, moving the first one back to June.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals on the shifting rate view. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas, while higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Safe-haven demand also slacked off after President Trump eased his interventionist rhetoric against Iran, saying he has received assurances that large-scale executions of protestors are unlikely.

Platinum added 0.9% while palladium lost 2%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $10 to $4,616.30; silver rose $1 to $91.87; platinum picked up $20.90 to $2,419.75; and palladium dropped $37 to $1,838.25 an ounce.

1/14/2026: Gold, silver set new records

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.8% to close above $4,626, a new record, as the dollar and Treasury yields edged down on rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, lifting alternative stores of value. Silver surged another 5.8% to finish at a new all-time high of $90.87 an ounce.

After President Trump threatened "strong action" against Iran if it harms protestors against its government, Iran warned that it will attack American bases in neighboring countries if the US intervenes.

This latest escalation in international tension comes while Vice President JD Vance meets with leaders of Greenland and Denmark following repeated statements by Trump administration officials that the US intends to take possession of Greenland. All this after the US staged a covert military operation in Venezuela to abduct its President less than two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, global central bankers and financial officials are lining up to support Fed independence after Trump opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell with the transparent intention of adding yet more pressure to reduce interest rates. A politicized Fed is almost universally seen as having catastrophic consequences for world markets.

Wholesale prices rose slightly in November, according to delayed PPI data. Cost of goods rose 0.9%, with 80% of that rise attributable to energy prices, while wholesale costs for services remained unchanged. Separately, the Fed's Beige Book showed businesses beginning to pass along Trump tariffs to consumers in late December.

The dollar edged down 0.1% against major rivals after the yen rebounded from an 18-month low on signals that the BOJ may intervene to support the currency. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of government debt. Lower yields buoy gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum picked up 2.8% while palladium dipped less than 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $37.10 to $4,626.30; silver surged $4.99 to $90.87; platinum picked up $65.05 to $2,398.85; and palladium inched down $1.10 to $1,875.25 an ounce.

1/13/2026: Gold eases on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.3% to close under $4,590 after benign CPI data was offset by a stronger dollar, prompting traders to take profits from record-high prices. Silver continued to surge, adding another 1.5% to finish at a new record of $85.88 an ounce.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December for a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7%, mirroring November's. So-called core inflation, less volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% for a 12-month reading of 2.6%.

But the data was not all positive. Food prices rose by the most in more than three years and rents were also exceptionally high, reinforcing the affordability crisis affecting many Americans.

Initially, gold surged to a new intraday record above $4,634 after the modest inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates later this year. Falling rates tend to weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper overseas, and they also lower bond yields, thereby reducing the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds for safety.

But traders took profits from bullion's all-time high as the dollar strengthened behind a falling yen following news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early general election to capitalize on her current popularity. Takaichi is seen as a monetary dove who will cut interest rates and weaken the yen.

Silver continued its seemingly indomitable rise, reaching another record high behind increased strong investment and industrial demand, a five-year supply deficit, and a huge wave of speculative buying among retail investors in China.

Platinum and palladium slipped 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $15.10 to %4,589.20; silver surged $1.27 to $85.99; platinum shed $22.05 to $2,33380; and palladium edged down $2.20 to $1,876.35 an ounce.

1/12/2026: Gold, silver hit new records

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 2.5% to close at a new all-time high above $4,604 after President Trump threatened to indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising new concerns about the independence of the US central bank. Silver rocketed 7.3% to finish at a new record of $84.61 an ounce.

In his latest move to pressure Powell, Trump has reportedly instructed the Justice Department to launch a criminal investigation into the Fed Chair because of what he calls fraudulent cost overruns in the renovation of the Fed's offices.

In a statement, Powell dismissed the possible indictment as a "pretext" to gain more influence over interest rates, which Trump wants to be slashed. He asserted that the question is whether monetary policy will be "based on evidence and economic conditions" or the result of "political pressure or intimation."

The dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals on concerns that the loss of Fed independence would undermine global faith in the US currency and finances. A weaker dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

The increased uncertainty about the Fed comes atop concerns about rising geopolitical turmoil following the Trump administration seizure of Venezuelan President Maduro and threats to seize control of Greenland despite its membership in NATO. Trump has also been publicly musing about intervening in civil unrest in Iran.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York close: gold gained $114 to $4,604.30; silver surged %.73 to $84.31; platinum picked up $77.15 to $2,355.85; and palladium advanced $42.40 to $1,878.55 an ounce.

1/9/2026: Gold rises after soft jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.9% to close above $4,490 after slower-than-forecast job growth reinforced expectations for additional monetary easing from the Fed in 2026. Bullion finished the week 4.1% higher. Silver surged 5.6% to finish at $78.88, posting a weekly rise of 11.8%.

The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, according to the BLS nonfarm payrolls report, falling short of the 60,000 projected by most economists, and totals for November were revised down to 56,000 from the initial report of 64,000.

There is no doubt that the labor market is stuck. Only 584,000 jobs were added in 2025, averaging 49,000 per month, after 2 million jobs were added in 2024, averaging 168,000 per month. The decrease is widely attributed to the unpredictable operating environment for businesses because of ever-changing trade policies.

The Fed has repeatedly emphasized in recent month that supporting the supporting the labor market has been the driving force behind its three straight rate cuts of 25 basis point last fall. Further cuts are expected in 2026, and the December jobs report does nothing to change this outlook.

Still, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% in December from 4.5% in November despite softer job growth, the Fed is expected to wait and see for now.

The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals as on the growing likelihood that the Fed sit tight this month. Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a January rate cut at just 5%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on flight to safety as investors weighed growing risks of geopolitical uncertainty—the same motivator behind the rising gold price. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, its increasing rhetoric of taking control of Greenland, the continued fighting between Russia and Ukraine, and the growing unrest in Iran are all whetting appetite for safe havens.

Platinum rose 1.8% today and 7.2% this week. Palladium added 4.5% for a weekly jump of $14.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $40.60 to $4,490.30; silver rose $4.17 to $78.88; platinum picked up $41.35 to $2,278.30; and palladium climbed $78.70 to $1,603.70 an ounce.

1/8/2026: Gold steady ahead of payrolls data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold held steady near $4,500 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors weighed rising geopolitical risks ahead of tomorrow's release of crucial US payrolls data. Silver shed 3.1% to finish at $74.72 an ounce.

Global tensions ratcheted up after the US seized another pair of tankers linked to Venezuela, one flagged as Russian, in the Trump administration's latest attempt to control Venezuelan oil.

In addition, aggressive overtures by Trump to take control of Greenland on the pretext of national security continue to rile Europe. And tensions between Japan and China remain at the highest level since World War Two after Tokyo signaled that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger a military response.

HSBC said today that gold could reach $5,000 by mid-2026 on increasing geopolitical turmoil and rising US debt levels.

Against this backdrop, investors eagerly await tomorrow's release of the December nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the coming direction of interest rates. A Reuters poll forecasts a modest 60,000 jobs added, fewer than Novembers 64,000, with a slightly drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Fed funds futures trading projects 65 basis points in rate cuts in 2026, more than the Fed's own projection of 25. But further weakening of the labor market could trigger deeper cuts, which would benefit gold and silver by weakening the dollar and lowering yields.

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals, capping gold's rise by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up slightly, adding additional headwinds for the gold price.

Platinum fell 0.7% while palladium was virtually flat.

At the New York spot close: gold added 40 cents, to $4,449.70; silver shed $2.42 to $74.72; platinum slipped $16.45 to $2,236.95; and palladium picked up 80 cents to $1,757.45 an ounce.

1/7/2026: Gold slides on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.7% to close under $4,450 after mixed US economic data prompted traders to take profits from bullion's 3.7% rally over the previous two sessions. Silver shed 4.2% to finish at $77.13 an ounce after gaining more than 13% this week.

US hiring remained sluggish in December and jobs are harder to come by. ADP reported that private payrolls increased by merely 41,000 jobs, falling short of expectation, while November's total was revised down to a scant 29,000. Meanwhile, job openings tumbled to a 14-month low in November, according to the Labor Department.

In contrast with the stagnant labor market, the US services sector unexpectedly improved in December, according to ISM data. More than 70% of Americans are employed in services-related businesses.

Equities fell from near record territory, with the down dropping 1%, as banks and financial shares were hurt and AI uncertainty returned.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down slightly, backstopping gold's slide, as investors shifted from equities to the perceived safety of government debt. The dollar traded flat.

China's central bank bought gold for its currency reserves for the fourteenth straight month in December. Aggressive purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets, were a key driver of record gold prices in 2025, a trend that is expected to continue in 2026.

Platinum and palladium fell 7.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot gold slid $32.90 to $4,4449.30; silver fell $3.40 to $77.13; platinum dropped $180.60 to $2,233.40; and palladium lost $55.85 to $1,756.25 an ounce.

1/6/2026: Gold, silver surge on safety

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending yesterday's 2.7% rally, New York spot gold added another 1% to close above $4,482 on safe-haven inflows and expectations of looser monetary policy in 2026. Silver surged another 5.7% to finish at $80.53, rocketing more than 13% in two sessions.

Geopolitical unease following President Trump's armed incursion into Venezuela, amplified by suggestions from key administration officials that Greenland might be next, continues to drive safety-minded investors into precious metals.

Meanwhile, slowing US growth, weakening employment, and contained inflation are raising speculation that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than the Fed's so-called dot-plot projects. Falling interest rates are bullish for gold because they pressure the dollar and reduce bond yields, making gold less expensive in other currencies and reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.ds

The Fed has penciled in one more quarter-point reduction in 2026, fed funds futures traders anticipate at least 50 basis points in cuts, and perhaps more if the labor market continues to deteriorate. This Friday's release of the December nonfarm payrolls data should help to clarify the short-term outlook.

Gold's gains came despite rising risk appetite among stock traders, as the Dow rallied another 1% to finish above 49,000 for the first time. Expectations of lower interest rates and optimism about AI were the primary drivers.

Platinum and palladium rose 7.4% and 4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $45.30 to $4,482.30; silver surged $4.37 to $80.53; platinum picked up $164.50 to $2,434; and palladium rose $69.90 to $1,812.10 an ounce.

1/5/2026: Precious Metals Gain Following Maduro's Arrest

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all surged sharply as global market participants returned to business as usual following the New Years break. While US markets were open on Friday, January 2nd, the Shanghai gold exchange was closed from Dec. 31 until the market reopen in Asia Sunday evening US time. Following Friday’s US sell-off in thin holiday trading, all four precious metals moved higher once Asia resumed regular trading. Gains continued to accumulate in both the London and New York trading sessions.

Gold gained 2.75% to close the New York session at $4,436, silver surged 7.3% to $76.16, platinum rose 6.3% to $2,269 and palladium popped 7.9% to $1,742.

Heightened geopolitical tension following the sensational US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his wife in the early hours of Saturday morning helped boost the haven appeal once markets reopened Sunday evening.

Stocks in the US also gained with the Dow up almost 800 points or 1.65%, with the S&P and the NASDAQ both rising about 0.75% or 53 points and 175 points, respectively. The US dollar was down slightly on the US dollar index and the 10-year US treasury yield edged lower as well. Bitcoin gained 3.3% to $94,345.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $122.50 to $4,436.90; silver surged $5.60 to $76.16; platinum rose $143.80 to $2,269.50; and palladium advanced $138.50 to $1,742.20 an ounce.

12/31/2025: Metals ease to end amazing year

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 1% to close under $4,326 as traders took profits and squared their books on the last trading day of 2025. Bullion still gained 3.8% for the month and a whopping 65% for the year, its best since 1979. Silver shed around 10% today to finish at $70.13 but rose an astonishing 31% in December and 155% this year, also its best since 1979.

Positive jobs data helped to push the metals power during today's session. First time filings for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to 199,000, well under the 220,000 that were forecast. It was the third straight decline and seventh in the past eight weeks.

Yesterday's release of the minutes from the December Fed meeting also weighed on gold and silver. In delivering a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, the Fed was deeply divided over the decision, citing concerns about rekindled inflation, with some officials wanting to keep interest rates unchanged "for some time."

The dollar crept higher on the relatively hawkish news, but nonetheless posted in its worst year since 1973, dropping nearly 10% against major rivals because of tariff mayhem, falling interest rates, and global worries about US fiscal policies. Analysts expect further weakness in 2026. A weaker dollar boosts precious metals by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum fell nearly 9% today but shot up 28% this month and 135% this year. Palladium fell 5,4% for a monthly rise of 13% and a yearly gain of 76%. Supply deficits and industrial demand helped the PGMs to ride the slipstreams of gold and silver to a banner year.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $44.50 to $4,325.60; silver shed $7.24 to $70.13; platinum plunged $197.80 to $2,034.50; and palladium retreated by $91.46 to $1,615. 25 an ounce.