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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


4/25/2018: Gold slides on rising yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.8% to close at a five-week low under $1,323 as bond yields and the dollar continued to rise, reducing demand for alternative stores of value.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes further eclipsed the psychologically-important 3% level, reaching as high as 3.19% as traders speculate that rising inflation will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively this year.

CME FedWatch puts the likelihood of a fourth hike in 2018 at nearly 40%, up from less than 29% one month ago. Higher rates prompt investors to sell lower-yielding bonds, in turn putting downward pressure on bond prices, which pushes up yields.

The dollar hit a three-month high, adding 0.4% against major rivals. Rising yields and interest rates support the dollar as foreign investors must trade into the currency to purchase US government bonds and notes. A stronger dollar pressures gold by making it more expensive overseas.

The other precious metals were also lower, with silver dropping 1.2% while platinum and palladium lost 2.4% and 0.4%, respectively.

At the Comex close: June gold slid $10.20 to $1,322.80; May silver lost 20 cents to $16.50; July platinum dropped $22.30 to $912.70; and June palladium slipped $4.15 to $967.50 an ounce.


4/24/2018: Gold gains on safe-haven inflows

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.7% to close at $1,333 as stocks tumbled on rising bond yields, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

US equity indexes dropped sharply today, with the Dow losing 1.7% and the S&P 500 1.3%, after yields on 10-year Treasurys hit the psychologically-important 3% mark for the first time in four years. The sell-off occurred despite a solid start to the earnings season, with more than 80% of S&P 500 companies beating profit forecasts.

Treasury yields have risen along with higher inflation expectations, which have been driven in part by sharply higher commodity prices. The CRB commodity index rose last week to the highest level since mid-2015 and oil prices hit a 3.5-year high.

Inflation cuts into the value of fixed payments for bondholders, causing many to sell lower-yielding bonds in favor of higher-yielding issues. Inflation also hampers companies from turning profits, prompting investors to shift out of equities. And finally, rising inflation makes it more likely that the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes, which further lifts yields.

The dollar slipped 0.2% against major rivals as traders took profits from its five-session rally. The buck had climbed to a three-month high yesterday in anticipation of Treasurys rising above 3%. A falling dollar supports gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them less expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and platinum rising 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, while palladium slid 0.8%.

At the Comex close: June gold gained $9 to $1,333; May silver rose 12 cents to $16.70; July platinum climbed $12.60 to $935; June palladium lost $8.10 to $971.65 an ounce.


4/23/2018: Gold falls on data, yields

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 1.1% to close at a one-month low of $1,324 as upbeat economic data and rising bond yields rallied the dollar, damping demand for alternative stores of value.

The Markit flash PMI showed manufacturing expanded in April at the fastest pace in three years, signaling that the US economy may be waking from its winter slumber. The cost of raw materials rose at the fastest pace in five years.

The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth of 3.4% in the second quarter after a meager 1.9% in Q1. However, protectionist trade policies and sharply higher inflation could become a headwind for further expansion.

Existing home sales rose 1.1% in March, down only slightly from a year ago despite extremely limited inventory and rising mortgage rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept closer to the psychologically-important 3% mark as traders speculate that burgeoning inflation and hotter growth will prompt the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases. CME FedWatch, which forecasts rates based on Fed futures trading, sees a 40% change of four hikes this year, up from 33% one week ago.

The dollar extended its streak to five sessions, adding another 0.6% to reach a three-month high behind rising Treasury yields and rate view. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive overseas. The buck remains down nearly 1% for the year, however, after dropping around 10% in 2017.

The other precious metals were also lower, with silver plunging 3.4% while platinum and palladium lost 1% and 4.9%, respectively.

At the Comex close: June gold fell $14.30 to $1,324; May silver plunged 58 cents to $16.59; July platinum dropped $9.40 to $922.40; June palladium shed $50.65 to $979.55 an ounce.


4/20/2018: Gold declines for day, week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 0.8% to close under $1,339 as the dollar and bond yields continued to climb on higher inflation expectations, cutting into demand for alternative stores of value. The metal suffered a weekly deline of 0.7%, its first in three weeks.

Rising prices for raw materials and oil are pushing inflation expectations sharply higher. Yields on TIPS, or inflation-protected Treasury notes, rose to nearly 2.2% this week, the highest level in more than three years. Consumer prices heated up to an annualized rate of 2.4% in March, according to CPI data released early this month.

The dollar extended its rally to a two-week high, gaining 0.4% against major rivals as traders speculated that inflation will drive the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously thought. Yields on 10-year Treasurys pushed up near 3% for the same reason.

The buck was also boosted by a tumble in the pound after Bank of England governor Mark Carney said weak UK inflation data has lowered the likelihood of a rate hike next month.

While sharply higher inflation is ultimately bullish for gold's traditional role as inflation hedge, it can also pressure the metal in the short term by triggering faster rate hikes. Higher rates support the dollar by attracting foreign exchange investment seeking higher yield, weighing on commodities like gold that are priced in dollars for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and week. Silver slipped 0.4% today but gained 3% this week. Platinum lost 0.9% on the day and 0.1% on the week. Palladium added 0.4% today for a weekly rise of 5%, driven by tensions between the US and Russia, the major producer of palladium.

At the Comex close: June gold dropped $10.50 to $1,338.30; May silver slid 8 cents to $17.16; July platinum dropped $8.30 to $931.80; and June palladium added $3.75, to $1,030.20 an ounce.


4/19/2018: Gold slides on dollar, yields

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.4% to close under $1,349 as rising inflation expectations boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, reducing demand for alternative assets.

Expectations for higher inflation climbed to nearly 2.2% this week, the highest level in three years. Derived from yields on 10-year TIPS, or inflation-protected Treasurys, the expectations reflect sharply higher commodity prices despite generally softer US economic data over the past few months. Yesterday, the CRB commodity index surged to the highest level since 2015 because of improving global growth and rising trade tensions between the US and Russia, a major producer of raw materials.

The dollar gained 0.3% against major rivals as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward the psychologically important 3% level. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities priced in it for international trade by making them more expensive overseas.

Some generally upbeat data also helped the dollar. Retail sales edged up 0.6% in March, slightly more than forecast, to break a four-month losing streak. The Philly Fed manufacturing index crept one point higher in April, though new orders declined.

The other precious metals were also lower, with silver dropping less than 0.1% while platinum and palladium lost 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the Comex close: June gold slid $4.70 to $1,348.80; May silver dipped less than one cent to $17.24; July platinum fell $5.40 to $940.10; and June palladium dropped $8.50 to $1,026.45 an ounce.


4/18/2018: Gold gains as oil surges

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.3% to close at a one-week high above $1,353 as surging oil prices, flat stocks, and a soft Beige Book report boosted demand for alternative stores of value.

West Texas crude surged more than 3% to $68.60, the highest level since late 2014, after the EIA said US crude supplies fell 1.1 million barrels last week. Further fueling the rally, Reuters reported Saudi Arabia wants to push prices toward $100 by cutting production. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The Fed's Beige Book noted economic activity at a "modest to moderate pace" over the past month, unchanged from the previous report, with no escalation in wage growth. Most Fed regions expressed concern about the brewing trade war with China, and business owners were upset with rising prices because of tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The Dow dipped slightly into the red as risk appetite ebbed and traders rotated into commodities. The dollar ticked up 0.1% as weak inflation readings in the UK reduced the odds of higher rates from the Bank of England, punishing the pound.

The IMF reported global debt has reached a record high of $164 trillion, or 225% of global GDP. Three nations account for more than half the debt: China, Japan, and the US. Of the three, only the US is projecting an increase in debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years.

The other precious metals were also higher, with silver jumping 2.8% to a 10-week high while platinum and palladium rose 0.6% and 3%, respectively.

At the Comex close: June gold gained $4 to $1,353.50; May silver jumped 46 cents to $17.25; July platinum picked up $5.80 to $945.80; and June palladium jumped $29.95 to $1,034.95 an ounce.


4/17/2018: Gold dips on upbeat data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold dipped 0.1% to close under $1,350 as the dollar edged higher on upbeat data and stocks rebounded, diminishing demand for alternative assets.

Industrial production rose 0.5% in March, beating expectations, and auto production jumped 2.7% to the highest level in 17 months. The Empire State manufacturing index slipped in April, however, as rumblings of trade wars dimmed the outlook for the longer term.

Housing starts rose 2% in March, the Commerce Department reported, and year-to-date starts are 8% higher than a year ago, signaling ongoing strength in the housing market despite yesterday's report of declining homebuilder confidence.

US stocks bounced higher on the positive data and optimism over first quarter earnings. The Dow and S&P 500 rose around 1% while Nasdaq jumped nearly 1.8%.

The dollar picked up 0.2% as Eurozone and UK economic data disappointed. Economic sentiment in Germany fell in April, and wage-growth in Britain fell short of forecasts. A rising dollar pressures gold by making it more expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals finished higher, with silver adding 0.7% while platinum and palladium rose 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

At the Comex close: June gold dipped $1.20 to $1,349.50; May silver gained 11 cents to $16.79; July platinum rose $8.20 to $940; and June palladium edged up $1.25 to $1,005 an ounce.


4/16/2018: Gold adds to gains on world tensions

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending last week's 0.8% increase, gold gained another 0.2% to close near $1,351 as rising geopolitical tensions with China and Russia pressured the dollar, boosting demand for alternative stores of value.

President Trump branded China and Russia currency manipulators, tweeting today that they are playing an unacceptable "currency devaluation game" as the US raises interest rates. The claim contradicted a Treasury report released on Friday that declined to name China as a currency manipulator.

The dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals under pressure from the growing discord between the US and China over trade, and between the US and Russia over Syria. President Trump criticized Moscow's allegiance with the Assad government before launching a coalition missile strike on Friday against Syrian chemical weapons factories.

Gold was little affected by mixed economic data. Retail sales rose 0.6% in March, breaking a three-month losing streak as auto sales surged 2%. On the other hand, homebuilder confidence slipped for the fourth straight month in April. And the Atlanta Fed lowered their real GDP growth forecast to 1.9% for the first quarter.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and palladium adding 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively, while platinum jumped 2.3%.

At the Comex close: June gold added $2.80, to $1,350.70; May silver picked up 2 cents to $16.68; July platinum dipped $1.30 to $931.80; and June palladium climbed $22.80 to $1,003.75 an ounce.


4/13/2018: Gold gains for second week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.5% to close near $1,348 as rising tensions with China and Russia spurred safe-haven demand. The metal finished the week 0.8% higher for its second straight weekly win.

The US is developing plans with France and Britain for a missile strike against Syria, ratcheting up anxiety in the Middle East. All three allies say there is sufficient evidence of a chemical weapons attack against Syrian civilians by the Assad government to warrant military intervention. Russia has threatened to protect Assad with its air defenses.

Adding to geopolitical turmoil, the Trump Administration is planning to increase its hardline approach to China by levying new tariffs and blocking Chinese tech investment in the US. Both nations are escalating protectionist policies, leading to worries about a global trade war.

US stock indexes declined on the growing tension, with the Dow dropping 0.8%, as investors shed risk. Treasury yields and the dollar were little changed.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day but higher for the week. Silver added 1.1% for a weekly gain of 1.8%. Platinum dipped 0.2% but still gained 1.7% this week. Palladium rose 2.2% today and 9.6% this week.

At the Comex close: June gold added $6, to $1,347.90; May silver rose 19 cents to $16.66; July platinum dipped $1.70 to $933.10; and June palladium jumped $21.80 to $980.95 an ounce.


4/12/2018: Gold falls on easing tensions

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 1.3% to close under $1,342 as traders took profits from a four-session rally and Syrian tensions eased, boosting risk appetite and the dollar.

President Trump tweeted that an airstrike on Syria might not be imminent after all, walking back yesterday's tweet telling Russia to "get ready" for a missile attack on its ally. The likelihood of US military intervention has been growing since reports last weekend of a poison gas attack on civilians by the Assad government.

Stocks rebounded sharply on the reduction in geopolitical tension, with the Dow jumping 1.3%, as investors shifted out of safe havens. Treasury yields also rose.

The dollar recouped 0.3%, breaking a four-day losing streak, as the Fed's March minutes, released late yesterday, reinforced the view that more rate hikes are coming this year. The committee was unanimous in expecting GDP and inflation to rise in coming months, though "a strong majority" viewed retaliatory trade policies as a serious downside risk to the economy.

The other precious metals were mostly lower, with silver and palladium dropping 1.8% and 0.2%, respectively, while platinum edged up less than 0.1%.

At the Comex close: June gold lost $18.10 to $1,341.90; May silver dropped 30 cents to $16.47; July platinum inched up 50 cents to $934.80; and June palladium dipped 80 cents to $959.15 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,318.36           $-6.04
Silver $16.60           $-0.03
Platinum $912.70           $-3.05
Palladium $994.95           $7.60
In US Dollars

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