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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


10/16/2017: Gold dips, holds above $1,300

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold dipped 0.1% but held above $1,300 as the dollar edged higher, supported by upbeat factory data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates against his year.

Speaking at a Group of 30 banking seminar, Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled coming rate hikes, saying momentum in economic growth "will warrant gradual increases" in short term rates. She qualified that assessment, however, by acknowledging that persistently low inflation remains a wild card.

The Empire State manufacturing index jumped to a three-year high in October, led by growing optimism in the business sector because of an upturn in the global economy. Exports and manufacturing have lagged other sectors in recovering from the Great Recession.

The dollar ticked up 0.1% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities denominated in it for international trade by making them more expensive to users of other currencies.

The other precious metals finished lower, with silver slipping 0.1% while platinum and palladium dropped 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold dips $1.60 to $1,303; December silver slipped 4 cents to $17.37; January platinum dropped $2.20 to $945.70; December palladium lost $9.20 to $976.30 an ounce.


10/13/2017: Gold posts 2.3% weekly gain

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold gained 0.6% to surpass the key $1,300 mark, closing at $1,304.70 after weak consumer inflation pressured the dollar and raised questions about another rate hike from the Fed this year. The metal finished the week 2.3% higher. Silver added 0.8% today for a weekly rise of 3.7%.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September, its biggest jump in eight months, behind a hurricane-related upsurge in gasoline prices. But the core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose a meager 0.1%. Annualized core inflation, the measure most tracked by the Fed, was 1.7% for the fifth straight month and remained well-short of the Fed's 2% target.

The dollar fell immediately after the CPI report as traders speculated that the Fed may be less inclined to raise interest rates. The minutes from the September Fed meeting, released this week, showed increasing debate over whether to hike again with inflation stuck so far under target. The buck retraced most of its losses late in the session after President Trump decertified the nuclear agreement with Iran.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard admitted today that the central bank is struggling to understand the causes of persistently low inflation, saying that the decline is probably not the result of temporary or global factors.

Other consumer reports today were more positive but did little to move the markets. Retail sales rose 1.6% for its biggest gain in 30 months in September, and consumer sentiment surged to a 13-year high in October. The Dow and S&P 500 both edged up around 0.1%.

The other precious metals were also higher for the day and week. Platinum added 0.7% for a weekly rise of 3.4%. Palladium rose 1.2% today and 7.2% this week, its biggest weekly win since January.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $8.10 to $1,304.60; December silver climber 15 cents to $17.41; January platinum climber $6.10 to $947.90; and December palladium jumped $10.80 to $985.50 an ounce.


10/12/2017: Gold rises 0.6% to 2-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold rose 0.6% to close at $1.296.50, its highest finish in more than two weeks, as traders digested yesterday's release of minutes from the Fed's September meeting. The metal reached as high as $1,299.80 in intraday trade before retreating slightly on upbeat US data.

The minutes from the last Fed meeting showed members generally supportive of tighter monetary policy but increasingly concerned about persistently low inflation. Several members said they would like to see core inflation rising to the Fed's 2% target before agreeing to another rate hike.

Further comments from several Fed members have deepened the debate. Esther George of the Kansas City Fed said today that waiting for 2% inflation risks "overheating the economy" and flirting with "an undesirable increase in inflation." James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed, on the other hand, said the Fed must defend its 2% target before raising rates or lose credibility. Similarly, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday that another hike is "not a done deal" while inflation is below 2%.

While the markets view a December hike as almost certain, the dovish tone to the Fed minutes and vocal opposition to another hike by some Fed members is giving traders pause, and lending support to gold. Higher rates tend to lift the dollar by attracting foreign exchange investment seeking higher yield. A stronger dollar, in turn, weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive overseas.

The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals, limiting gold's rise, after wholesale inflation rose 0.4% in September, boosted by a hurricane-related spike in gasoline prices. The core PPI was softer at 0.2%.

The other precious metals also finished higher, with silver rising 0.8% while platinum and palladium climbed 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $7.60 to $1,296.50; December silver rose 13 cents to $17.27; January platinum picked up $8.60, to $941.80; and December palladium climbed $14.75 to $973.70 an ounce.


10/11/2017: Gold dips, holds after Fed minutes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold dipped 0.1% to close under $1,293 as traders prepared for the release of the minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Reserve. The metal then held that slight loss in electronic trade after the minutes confirmed the Fed's bias toward another rate hike.

At their latest meeting on monetary policy, most Fed members felt that another rate hike this year "was likely to be warranted," according to the minutes released today. Persistently low inflation was a hotly-debated topic, with several members urging "some patience" until it climbs closer to the Fed's 2% target. While not automatic, another quarter-point rise in December was clearly the consensus, with only with four members pushing it off until 2018.

Separately, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said today that a December hike is not a done deal. A policy dove, Evans said he wants "an honest discussion" about whether another rate increase is needed while inflation remains under target.

The minutes did little to move the markets, with a December hike largely a foregone conclusion among traders anyway. CME FedWatch, which forecasts the likelihood of rate hikes based on trading in Fed fund futures, held the odds at 86.7% today, down a hair from 87.8% yesterday.

Gold's slide was backstopped by the dollar's fourth day of losses. The buck slid another 0.2% against major rivals after Catalan's leader balked at declaring formal independence from Spain, boosting the euro.

The other precious metals were mostly lower, with silver and platinum edging down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, while palladium gained 1.9%.

At the Comex close: December gold dipped $1.10 to $1,292.70; December silver slipped 3 cents to $17.18; January platinum edged down 50 cents to $935.80; and December palladium gained $16.95 to $951.45 an ounce.


10/10/2017: Gold climbs for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold gained 0.8% to close near $1,275 as a falling dollar and rising North Korea tensions supported demand for alternative assets. It was the metal's third straight winning session and highest finish in nearly two weeks. Silver rallied 1.4% to extend its four-session rise to 3.4%.

The dollar lost 0.5% against major rivals, posting its third straight losing session, as the pound and euro rose on expectations of tighter monetary policies to come. Upbeat manufacturing and construction data in the UK increased the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of England in November. Across the channel, ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said the central bank should cut back on quantitative easing. Both moves would make the dollar less attractive to foreign exchange traders seeking higher yield.

The dollar was also pressured by ongoing saber-rattling between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un after the President tweeted ominously over the weekend that diplomacy is "making fools of U.S. negotiators" and that "only one thing will work!" Defense Secretary Jim Mattis today warned the Army to be ready if negotiations fail to contain North Korea's nuclear ambitions. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Gold was also supported by rising oil prices. Crude gained 2% on reports that Saudi Arabia is cutting exports and the market is beginning to rebalance after years of excess supply. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Treasurys rose alongside gold and yields fell on flights to safety.

The other precious metals also rose, with platinum and palladium adding 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $9.70 to $1,294.70; December silver jumped 24 cents $17; January platinum climbed $15.10 to $936.50; and December palladium added $6.50, to $934.50 an ounce.


10/9/2017: Gold gains on North Korea concerns

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold gained 0.8%, erasing all last week's losses to close at $1,285 as renewed tension with North Korea spurred safe-haven demand.

In a series of comments and tweets over the past few days, President Trump has raised additional concerns about a possible military intervention to stop North Korea's nuclear weapons program. On Friday, he alluded to "the calm before the storm" when asked about the conflict, refusing to clarify his meaning. Over the weekend, the President cryptically tweeted that diplomacy is "making fools of U.S. negotiators" and that "only one thing will work!"

Given the President's threat in August to rain "fire and fury" on the rogue nation, the suggestion of warlike intentions was hard to miss.

The dollar pulled back against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them less expensive overseas. And US and global stocks also receded slightly as investors checked their risk appetite.

The other precious metals also finished higher, with silver rising 1.1% while platinum and palladium added 0.2% and 1%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $10.10 to $1,285; December silver picked up 18 cents $16.97; January platinum edged up $1.50 to $918.20; and December palladium climbed $9 to $928 an ounce.


10/6/2017: Gold gains on jobs, North Korea

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold gained 0.1% to close near $1,275, then pushed up another $3 in electronic trade, after weak jobs data and reports that North Korea is planning a new missile test boosted safe-haven demand. The metal still slipped around 0.8% for the week, pressured by growing expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.

US nonfarm payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first monthly decline since 2010 as the temporary impact from hurricanes Harvey and Irma hit hiring. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, however, unaffected by the storms. Average wages rose by 0.5%, but analysts attributed the increase to the loss of low-paying restaurant jobs because of the hurricanes.

The dollar initially rose on the jobs data as traders speculated that the lower unemployment rate would bolster the Fed's case to raise rates. But the buck reversed itself, and gold extended its gains, after reports that North Korea is planning to test a new ICBM that could reach American soil. Further escalation in tension between Pyongyang and Washington is likely to boost gold in coming sessions.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and week. Silver rose 0.9% today to pull off a weekly gain of 0.7%. Platinum edged down 0.1% but ended the week 0.1% higher. Palladium dropped 1.9% for the day and week.

A the Comex close: December gold gained $1.70 to $1,274.90; December dropped $17.50 to $919 an ounce.


10/5/2017: Gold dips on record equities

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold dipped 0.3% to close at $1,273.20 as US equities hit new records and the dollar rallied on upbeat data, reducing demand for alternative assets.

Factory orders rebounded 1.2% in August after plunging in July, the Commerce Department reported today, with durable goods orders rising 2%. In addition, the trade deficit dropped 2.7% to an 11-month low behind increased exports of drugs, computer chips, and networking gear.

The dollar climbed 0.5% to a 10-week high against major rivals as the strong data further boosted expectations for a rate hike from the Fed in December. A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for international trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

All three main US stock indexes pushed higher into record territory, with the Dow and S&P 500 adding 0.5% while the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. It was the sixth straight record close for the S&P 500, the longest streak since 1997.

Stocks were also supported by hopes that the Republican plan to cut corporate taxes is building momentum. The House passed a budget today, which is the first step toward enabling the Senate to pass tax reform with a simple majority through a process known as reconciliation. Otherwise, 60 votes would be needed, including some from Democrats, making passage unlikely.

The other precious metals all finished higher, with silver adding 0.1% while platinum and palladium rose 0.4% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold dropped $3.60 to $1,273.20; December silver added one cent $16.64; January platinum rose $2.50 to $918; and December palladium jumped $19.60 to $936.50 an ounce.


10/4/2017: Gold gains 0.2% as dollar slips

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold gained 0.2% to close near $1,277 as bargain-hunters entered the market and the dollar slid ahead of the widely-anticipated US nonfarm payrolls report. The metal traded as high as $1,285 early in the session before receding on upbeat ISM data.

The dollar slipped 0.2% against major rivals as traders trimmed their bets ahead of the government's official jobs report, due Friday. Weak nonfarm payrolls data could give the Fed pause about another rate increase this year. ADP reported 135,000 jobs were added by the private sector in September, slightly short of expectations as hurricanes Irma and Harvey took their toll on hiring.

The dollar also came under pressure after Politico reported Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin favors Fed Governor Jerome Powell over former governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. Closely aligned with Janet Yellen on policy, Powell is viewed as significantly more dovish than Warsh, which would likely mean a slower pace of monetary tightening.

The ISM services index jumped to a 12-year high in September, with 15 of 17 industries reporting growth. Employing around 80% of working Americans, services sector has been growing consistently for eight years while manufacturing languished. Earlier this week, though, the ISM manufacturing index surged to a 13-year high, signaling positive momentum for the economy entering Q4.

US stocks extended their rise to new record highs behind the upbeat data, with the Dow and S&P 500 both adding around 0.1%.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver dropping 0.2% and platinum edging down less than 0.1% while palladium picked up 0.3%.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $2.20 to $1,276.80; December silver slipped 3 cents to $16.62; January platinum inched 70 cents lower to $914.80; and December palladium added $2.75, to $919.65 an ounce.


10/3/2017: Gold hits 7-week low on risk rally

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin Gold dipped less than 0.1% to close under $1,275 for the first time since early August as equities rose to record highs, dulling interest in safe havens.

Boosted by tech shares and automakers, US stock indexes pushed higher into record territory, with the Dow rising 0.4% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.2%. Optimism over the Republican plan to slash corporate taxes is fueling risk appetite, supported by yesterday's upbeat data on US manufacturing growth.

The dollar treaded water, holding near seven-week highs against major rivals, as traders speculate that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year. CME FedWatch raised the odds to nearly 82% for a December hike, up from 71% yesterday. Higher rates boost the buck by attracting foreign exchange investment seeking higher yield, pressuring gold in turn by making it more expensive for users of other currencies.

The other precious metals were mostly lower, with silver and platinum slipping around 0.1% while palladium picked up 0.6%.

At the Comex close: December gold dipped $1.20 to $1,274.60; December silver dropped half a penny to $16.65; January platinum slid $1.10 to $915.50; and December palladium added $5.60, to $916.90 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,291.05           $-5.11
Silver $17.20           $-0.10
Platinum $935.86           $0.21
Palladium $989.86           $6.41

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