AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

12/8/2025: Gold slides ahead of Fed meeting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.6% to close under $4,188 as Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs on expectations that the Fed will deliver a "hawkish cut" at its meeting this week. Silver shed 64 cents to finish at $57.78 an ounce.

The markets almost universally anticipate another rate cut of 25 basis points at the Fed's final meeting on monetary policy this year. Supporting the US labor market has emerged as a priority in recent commentary from Fed Chair Powell and other committee members, with inflation taking a back seat.

But the persistence of inflation above the Fed's 2%, even before tariffs have fully hit prices, has bond traders apprehensive about prospects of additional easing in 2026.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest level in three months on expectations that Powell's post-meeting statements will be hawkish, signalling a high bar for further easing. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar edged higher against major rivals, weighing on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium added 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $25.70 to $4,187.20; silver shed 64 cents to $57.78; platinum picked up $5.60 to $1,651.95; and palladium added $11.20, to $1,483.70 an ounce.

12/5/2025: Gold ticks up for day, week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up less than 0.1% to close near $4,213 after belated data on inflation and consumer spending from September did nothing to change expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates next week. Bullion rose 0.1% for the week. Silver surged 2.8% to finish at $58.42 an ounce, notching a weekly gain of 3.5%.

Delayed by the government shutdown, data from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending stalling in September as households felt the pressure from higher inflation, volatile trade policies, a frozen job market, and the pending government shutdown. Spending rose 0.3% after three straight months of stronger gains.

Separately, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rising at the fastest pace in 18 months in September. Inflation increased by 0.3% for a 12-month rate of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in August.

The markets breathed a sigh of relief that the data, while stale, was not worse. All three major stock indexes rose more than 0.2%. Fed funds futures traders kept the odds of a quarter-point cut from the Fed next week at 88%, virtually unchanged from yesterday.

The dollar edged slightly higher against major rivals, limiting gold's gains by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also crept higher.

Platinum slipped 0.3% for the day and 0.2% for the week. Palladium rose 1.4% today but fell 3.6% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained 0$1.10 to $4,212.90; silver climbed $1.58 to $58.42; platinum slipped $.80 to $16,46.35; and palladium advanced $20.50 to $1,472.40 an ounce.

12/4/2025: Gold rises ahead of PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $4,212 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors bet on another rate cut from the Fed. Silver retreated 1.8% to finish at $56,85 an ounce.

Running counter to a recent slew of negative employment data, new jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 last week to 191,000, the lowest level since 2022. The number of people collecting ongoing benefits edged down slightly to 1.94 million but hovered near a post-pandemic high.

Earlier this week, ADP reported 33,000 jobs were lost last month in the private sector, marking the third month out of the past four in which the economy shed jobs. Other sources like ISM surveys and Beige Book reports indicated frozen hiring. But layoffs remain relatively muted, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labor market.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up on the news, limiting gold's gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders foresee an 87% likelihood that the Fed will reduce rates by a quarter-point when it meets next week. Tomorrow's release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures index, delayed by the government shutdown, should give a clearer sense of the Fed's plans.

Unless the PCE shows much higher inflation than expected in September, the dovish voices on the FOMC are likely to hold sway, given the recent emphasis by key Fed officials supporting the labor market.

Lower rates are typically bullish for gold because they reduce bond yields and weaken the dollar. A falling dollar makes gold and other commodities less expensive on other currencies, lifting demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.50 to $2,11.80; silver shed $1.07 to $56.85; platinum dipped $7 to $1,651.15; and palladium lot $24.90 to $1,451.90 an ounce.

12/3/2025: Gold gains on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close above $4,199 after soft private-payrolls data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates when it meets next week. Silver inched down 0.1% on profit-taking to finish at $57.92 after reaching a new all-time high of $58.94 earlier in the session.

ADP reported that private payrolls cut 32,000 jobs in November, marking the third contraction in four months. It was the biggest decline since spring 2023. Forecasts had expected a gain of 40,000 jobs.

The ADP data is just the latest in a string of reports indicating a broad-based weakness in the US economy. Manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and the Fed's Beige Book have all pointed toward slowdown in recent weeks.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again at its final meeting of the year. Fed funds futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut at nearly 90%.

A series of Fed members including Fed Chair Powell have indicated that the health of the labor market has become their main concern. But Friday's release of the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, could change the calculus on rate cuts if it comes in sharply higher.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.5% against major rivals led by the euro, which rallied on upbeat data about business activity in the eurozone. A falling dollar boosts gold by and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.70 to $4,199.30; silver dipped 6 cents to $57.92; platinum picked up $24.80; and palladium rose $13.45 to $1,476.80 an ounce.

12/2/2025: Gold slides on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 1.3% to close under $4,187 as traders took profits from yesterday's six-week high ahead of important data releases later this week. Silver slid 0.8% to $57.98 an ounce.

Recent data on manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and job growth have indicated an economy slowing under the combined weight of high tariffs, rising inflation, the longest US government shutdown in history, and uncertainty over economic policies.

Traders have up the odds of December rate cut from the Fed to nearly 90% from virtually nonexistent just weeks ago. In addition, another cut in January now has better than a 50/50 chance, according to CME FedWatch.

Gold rose to a six-week high yesterday behind this dovish rate view as the dollar and Treasury retreated. Today these trades reversed themselves, with the dollar and yields bouncing slightly higher while gold retreated in a bout of profit-taking.

Releases this week of the November ADP private payrolls report and the crucial Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will go far toward establishing whether the Fed will, in fact, reduce rates again.

Gold has been strongly supported this year by aggressive purchases by global central banks. This trend appears to be accelerating. Central banks bought 53 tons of gold in October, up 36% month-on-month, according to the World Gold Council.

Platinum fell 1.8% while palladium rose 1.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold slid %52.70 to $4,186.90; silver shed 44 cents to $57.98; platinum dropped $29.70 to $1,633.35; and palladium picked up $18.60 to $1,463.35 an ounce.

12/1/2025: Gold rises to 6-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.5% to close at a six-week above $4,239 as rate-cut bets and weak US economic data pressured the dollar, boosting alternative stores of value. Silver surged 3.5% behind tight global supplies, hitting a new all-time high above $58.20 before finishing at $58.42 an ounce.

US manufacturing shrank for the ninth straight month in November, with the ISM manufacturing index falling to a four-month low of 48.2%, where anything under 50% indicates contraction. The high costs from tariffs and rising global uncertainty, combined with the protracted government shutdown, pushed new orders close to a 15-year low.

In recent weeks, a softening job market and plunging consumer sentiment have prompted a growing number of Fed officials to signal their openness to additional rate cuts despite stubbornly high inflation.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut in December at nearly 90%, with a similar cut in January at nearly 60%.

Adding to the dovish outlook, Kevin Hassett appears increasingly likely to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair this spring. President Trump, who has aggressively pressured the Fed to slash rates, said today that he is 70% certain of Powell's replacement. Hassett has loyally supported all of Trump's positions on trade and other economic issues.

The dollar slipped 0.2% on the rate outlook, boosting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium fell 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $21 to $4,230.30; silver surged $1.97 to $58.42; platinum lost $14.70 to $1,663.05; and palladium dropped $23.75 to $1,444.75 an ounce.

11/26/2025: Gold rallies to one-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 0.9% to close at a one-week high near $4,167 as Treasury yields and the dollar weakened on expectations that the Fed will continue monetary easing in coming months. Bullion has added almost 2% in the past four sessions. Silver surged 4.7% to finish at $3.31 an ounce.

Following a wave of soft economic data and commentary dovish commentary from key Fed officials over the past week, the markets extended bets that the Fed will reduce interest rates at its December meeting and follow with another rate cut in January.

The dovish rate view is reinforced by growing expectations that Kevin Hassett, current head of the Trump Administration's Economic Advisory Committee, will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in 2026. A Trump loyalist, Hassert is anticipated to support much lower interest rates, like the President.

Fed fund funds futures traders put the odds of another quarter-point reduction in 2026 at around 90%, with a similar cut in January at around 60%. Falling rates boost gold, a non-yielding asset, by pressuring Treasury yields and weakening the dollar.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped under 4% and the dollar dipped 0.1% against major rivals.

Deutsche Bank upgraded its gold forecasts to $4,500 an ounce in 2026 and $5,150 in 2027, citing concerns about inflation, fiat currency debasement, and the world’s unsustainable debt spiral.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $36.60 to $4,16.75; silver surged $2.38 to $53.31; platinum picked up $33.30 to $1,585.05; and palladium added $32,20, to $1,429.15 an ounce.

11/25/2025: Gold rise on data, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.9% to close above $4,130 after mixed data reinforced rate-cut expectations and the emergence of a dovish candidate for Fed Chair pressured yields and the dollar. Silver rose 1.3% to finish at $50.93 an ounce.

Mixed data delayed by the government shutdown showed retail sales rising just 0.2% in September, half of expectations and one-third of the increase in August. Meanwhile, the September PPI showed wholesale inflation rising 2.7% over the prior 12 months, matching August.

Current data from the Conference Board indicates consumer sentiment fell sharply this month to near pandemic lows on concerns about tariffs, prices, and a stagnant job market.

The net-negative data reinforced views that the Fed will reduce interest rates by another quarter-point when it meets next month, and perhaps again in January. Fed fund futures traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a December cut, followed by a 60% chance of another in January.

In addition, Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell's term expires next spring. The White House National Economic Council Director is a close ally of President Trump's and would likely pursue Trump's preference for drastically lower interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to just above 4% on the dovish near- and longer-term prospects for rates, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yield, the dollar lost 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum climbed 0.4% while palladium slid 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.25 to $4,130.15; silver rose 64 cents to $50.93; platinum picked up $5.5 to $1,551.75; and palladium shed $6.15 to $1,396.95 an ounce.

11/24/2025: Gold rises on Fed comments

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close near $4,092 as Treasury yields and the dollar ticked lower on growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. Silver added 0.8% to finish at $50.30 an ounce.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today that weakness in the labor market is enough to warrant another rate cut this year. His comments follow those of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.

While several other Fed officials are unconvinced of the need for further easing, citing stubborn inflation, three of the most influential voices—Powell, Williams, and Waller—are unified in putting full employment above price stability as the most pressing Fed priority right now.

Fed fund futures raised the probability of a quarter-point cut in December to 81%, up from 71% yesterday and 42% a week ago.

The dollar and 10-year Treasury yields both edged lower on the dovish rate view. A weaker buck makes gold less expensive overseas, while lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium rose 15% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $15.20 to $4,091.90; silver rose 42 cents to $50.30; platinum picked up $23.30 to $1,546.25; and palladium added $10.05, to $1,401.10 an ounce.

11/21/2025: Gold gains on dovish Fed view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close near $4,077 after soft US data and dovish comments from an influential Fed official increased optimism for a December rate cut. Bullion still slipped 0.3% for the week. Silver fell 0.7% to finish at $49.87 for a weekly decline of 1.4%.

The final version of University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell in November to one of the lowest readings ever recorded. Americans grew increasingly pessimistic about the personal finances and frustrated with high prices driven by tariffs.

Separately, US factory activity fell to a four-month low as tariffs raised prices and limited demand. But the services sector expanded slightly, and service-related businesses expressed confidence in improving conditions, according to the S&P PMI survey.

Against this backdrop, New York Fed President John Williams said today the centra bank could cut interest further in the near term without damaging its inflation goals. Williams is almost always aligned with Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed Chair, too, may support a December rate cut.

Fed funds futures traders immediately raised the likelihood of a quarter-point cut next month to 73%, up from 35% before Williams' comments.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on the shifting rate view, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of for bonds for safety.

Platinum picked up 0.2% but lost 1.9% for the week. Palladium added 0.3% today but subtracted 2% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.20 to $4,076.70; silver shed 37 cents to $49.87; platinum picked up $2.90 to $1,522.75; and palladium added $4.20, to $1,393.05 an ounce.