AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

7/18/2025: Gold rises on weaker dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close at $3,353 on safe-haven inflows as the dollar retreated after President Trump resumed his attacks Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Bullion dipped $3 for the week. Silver added 0.4% to finish at $38.22 but fell 1.2% for the week.

Trump heaped new scorn the Fed Chair today, calling him a "numbskull" for not slashing interest rates. At the same time, Fed Governor Waller echoed Trump's call for a rate cut this month. In the same speech, he said would be happy to become Fed Chair.

Waller was one of two FOMC members, both Trump appointees, who advocated for a rate cut in June, according to the minutes from the meeting. The rest of the committee argued for caution until the fallout from trade wars could be assessed.

Earlier this week, the President floated the idea of firing Powell, but then quickly retracted after it after stocks, the dollar, and Treasury yields all plunged on concerns about the Fed losing its independence.

New trade war worries also lifted gold after the White House indicated a target of 15-20% tariffs on all products imported form the EU.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals as those worries were rekindled. A falling dollar lifts gold by making it cheaper overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also retreated, supporting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Platinum fell 1.1% today and 0.9% this week. Palladium added less than 0.1% for a weekly rise of 5.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.90 to $3,353; silver shed 17 cents to $38.22; platinum dropped $15.90 to $1,438.50; and palladium added 90 cents, to $1,291.90 an ounce.

7/17/2025: Gold slips on data, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.4% to close above $3,340 as better-than-expected US economic data dimmed the outlook for imminent rate cuts from the Fed, boosting the dollar. Silver shed 0.5% to finish at $38.06 an ounce.

US retail sales rebounded 0.6% in June after the White House delayed many of its extreme tariffs. Consumers spent more on restaurants, autos, clothing, and remodeling projects. The next round of tariffs is slated for early August.

Separately, first-time jobless claims fell again last week, suggesting companies are holding onto employees even if they are not hiring new ones.

The dollar gained 0.3% against major rivals as traders speculated that resilience in the economy will give the Fed time to weigh the inflationary effects of burgeoning trade wars before lowering interest rates.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for foreign trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

A pair of Fed officials added to the hawkish outlook on interest rates. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the Fed should not cut rates " for some time" until it determines the impact of tariffs. New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs are likely to add 1% to inflation within the next nine months.

Platinum and palladium rose 1% and 4.2%, respectively, as the escalating Russia-Ukraine war impacts supplies from Russia, a leading producer of PMGs.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $12.40 to $3,340.10; silver slipped 20 cents to $38.06; platinum picked up $14.05 to $1,454.30; and palladium jumped $52.15 to $1,291 an ounce.

7/16/2025: Gold gains on Fed worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close above $3,352 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell on flights to safety after reports that President Trump was preparing to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Silver added less than 0.1% to finish at $38.75 an ounce.

Bloomberg reported that the President floated the idea of firing Powell to several Republican lawmakers, testing the waters and awaiting a reaction from the market. Trump and his allies have put the Fed under extreme pressure recently to cut interest rates.

He did not have to wait long. Treasury yields and the dollar immediately tumbled while gold jumped more than 1% on worries that the Fed would lose its independence, thereby undermining global faith in US assets.

Trump quickly denied the reports while simultaneously suggesting Powell may have committed fraud, an offense that would justify his termination, by allowing cost overruns on an ongoing Federal Reserve renovation project.

Still, the markets were mollified by the denial, with yields and the dollar paring losses while gold pared its gains.

Adding to demand for bullion, the PPI on goods rose in June as tariffs lift wholesale costs. The overall PPI was unchanged, however, because of falling prices on services. The data comes one day after the CPI release showed consumer prices rising by the most in five months.

In addition, Israel launched intensive airstrikes into Damascus, deepening geopolitical concerns and boosting safe-haven demand.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $22.709 to $3,352.50; silver added 2 cents, to $37.85; platinum picked up $43.55 to $1,420.25; and palladium advanced $31.65 to $1,238.85 an ounce.

7/15/2025: Gold dips on higher inflation

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.6% to close under $3,330 after rising consumer prices shifted rate-cut expectations, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar. Silver lost 1.6% to finish at $37.83 an ounce.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in June, the most in five months, to push the annual inflation rate up to 2.7% from 2.4% in May. The bulk of the increase came from services, not goods, indicating tariffs have not played much of a part so far.

Tomorrow's release of the producer price index showing wholesale inflation should give a better sense of inflation in the product pipeline.

Fed fund futures traders shifted rate-cut projections slightly after the data, putting the likelihood of a quarter-point reduction in September at 52%, down from 59% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.5%, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.6% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum slid 1.6% while palladium picked up 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $21.70 to $3,329.80; silver slid 63 cents to $37.83; platinum dropped $23 o $1,376.70; and palladium picked up $5 to %1,207.20 an ounce.

7/14/2025: Gold eases on trade hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.1% to close under $3,352 as equities, bond yields, and the dollar edged higher on rumblings of trade deals with South Korea and the EU. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $38.46 an ounce.

President Trump turned up the trade temperature over the weekend, threatening new tariffs of 30% on Mexico and the EU after similar warnings against Japan, South Korea, and other nations. Today, South Korea and the EU replied that they are framing out deals with the US in hopes of circumventing destructive trade wars.

All three major US stock indexes swung from small losses to small gains following the remarks, with the Dow and S&P 500 picking up 0.2% while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose 17 basis points to 4.43% on the shift toward risk appetite, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals, undercutting gold and other commodities by making the pricier overseas.

President Trump increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, saying on Sunday that it would be "a great thing" in Fed Chair Jerome Powell resigned. Traders will look toward the CPI and PPI releases this week for further clues on the direction of interest rates.

Platinum fell 3.6% and palladium lost 1.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $4.50 to $3,351.50; silver shed 21 cents to $38.46: platinum dropped $52.30 to $1,399.70; and palladium slid $21.30 to $1,202 an ounce.

7/11/2025: Gold rallies on more tariff salvos

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.2% to close at a two-week high of $3,356 on flights to safety after the White House announced yet more new tariffs, rattling markets. Bullion ended the week with a gain of 0.7%. Silver rose 4.4% to $38.68 for a weekly increase of 5.2%.

President Trump threatened Canada with 35% tariffs, separate from sectional tariffs already in place. However, the new edict exempts items covered by the US-Mexico-Canada-Trade-Agreement, which comprise around 38% of imports from Canada.

The latest shakeup in trade relations follows announcement earlier this week of new 25% duties on 12 major partners like South Korea and Japan, along with 20% to 30% duties on 7 minor trading partners, plus 50% duties on imported copper and 50% tariffs on Brazil, with whom the US already has a trade surplus.

According to the International Chamber of Commerce, US consumers will now pay an effective tariff rate of more than 20%, the highest since the early 1900s. The effective rate was 16%, the highest since the 1930s, after Trump's "Liberation Day" launch of tariffs in April.

The Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, while the VIX volatility index jumped 1.7% after the new trade salvos.

Platinum rose 4.1% for a weekly gain of 5.8%. Palladium added3.1% today and 6.7% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.60 to $3,356; silver surged $1.64 to $38.68; platinum picked up $57.10 to $1,452; and palladium advanced $36.40 to $1,223.30 an ounce.

7/10/2025: Gold rises with trade anxiety

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close above $3,317 on safe-haven inflows despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders digested the latest tariff salvos from the White House. Silver rose 1.9% to finish above $37 an ounce.

Present Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazil effective August 1, citing his displeasure with the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump supporter during his first term. Bolsonaro is on trial for plotting a coup to prevent his elected successor, current President Lula da Silva, from taking office, something Trump has dismissed as "a witch hunt."

It is the latest in a series of new tariffs that have reawakened dormant trade anxieties. Earlier this week, Trump levied 25% duties on major partners like South Korea, Japan, and12 other nations. Then he placed 20% to 30% duties on seven minor trading partners, including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and others. He also issued a 50% tariff on copper imports.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged higher after first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, fueling a mild appetite for risk on Wall Street. The Dow added 0.4% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar picked up less than 0.1% against major rivals.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.8$ and 6.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.80 to $3,317.40; silver jumped 69 cents to $37.04; platinum climbed $24.30 to $1,394.90; and palladium surged $71.70 to $1,186.90 an ounce.

7/9/2025: Gold gains on new tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to close near $3,312 as rekindled trade war worries pushed investors towards safe havens and pressured Treasury yields. Silver slipped 0.3% to finish at $36.15 an ounce.

President Trump today announced new tariffs of between 20% and 30% on seven minor trading partners, including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and others. The move comes after new tariff announcements of 25% on major partners like South Korea and Japan along with 12 other nations. And yesterday Trump raised duties on imported copper to 50%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rolled back as investors sought protection from the highest US tariffs since 1934, when protectionist trade policies deepened the Great Depression.

The dollar was little changed.

Gold's gains were capped by somewhat hawkish minutes from the Fed's last meeting on monetary policy. Only "a couple" of committee members advocated lowered interest rates in July, while the majority remained concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump trade policies.

Platinum slipped 0.4% while palladium rose 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4.60 to $3,311.60; silver slid 12 cents to $36.35; platinum dipped $6 to $1,370.60; and palladium picked up $4.20 to $1,115.20 an ounce.

7/3/2025: Gold slips on Fed rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $3,332 after stronger-than-expected jobs data dimmed the prospects for imminent rate cuts from the Fed, boosting the dollar and pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion still rose 1.7% for the holiday-shortened week. Silver climbed 1% to $36.78 for a weekly rise of 1.9%.

US nonfarm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, handily exceeding consensus forecasts of around 110,000 and pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.

While the headline numbers were solid, the details were softer. Nearly half the gains came from the government sector while the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, the fewest in eight months. And the lowered unemployment rate was attributed to more jobseekers giving up.

Still, the overall resiliency evident in the report makes it unlikely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates when it meets later this month, and more likely that rates will remain elevated through 2025. Fed fund futures traders now project 51 basis points in cuts this year, down from 66 before the NFP print.

In addition, the ISM reported the services sector nudged back into expansion in June after contracting in May. Service industries constitute around 70% of the economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.35% on the dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals. A weaker dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

Platinum fell 3.4% today but gained 2.3% this week. Palladium shed 1.3% but managed a weekly rise of 0.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $16.40 to $3,331.60; silver climbed 36 cents to $36.78; platinum dropped $49 to $1,372; and palladium lot $15 to $1,146 an ounce.

7/2/2025: Gold rises on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close at $3,348 after private payrolls contracted in June, perhaps putting the Fed on a path to lower interest rates sooner than expected. Silver jumped 1% to finish at $36.43 an ounce.

ADP reported privately run businesses cut 33,000 jobs in June as the worst trade wars since the 1930s are creating "hesitancy to hire and reluctance to replace" departing employees. It was the first net loss of jobs in more than two years.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the central bank will take a patient approach to rate cuts because of uncertainty surrounding US trade and tariff policies, he also suggested that the rate cut in July is not off the table.

If the upcoming and more-authoritative US nonfarm payrolls data reflect a deterioration in the labor market, the Fed may well be moved to lower rates. Fed fund futures now put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at 24%, up from 20% before the ADP release.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and lower Treasury yields, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers and reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead on bonds for safety.

Meanwhile, the House will try to pass the Senate's version of the Trump tax-cut and spending bill, which will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade.

Platinum and palladium rose 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $11.30 to $3,348; silver climbed 35 cents to $36.43; platinum picked up $75.10 to $1,421; and palladium advanced $58.10 to $1,161 an ounce.