AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

1/9/2026: Gold rises after soft jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.9% to close above $4,490 after slower-than-forecast job growth reinforced expectations for additional monetary easing from the Fed in 2026. Bullion finished the week 4.1% higher. Silver surged 5.6% to finish at $78.88, posting a weekly rise of 11.8%.

The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, according to the BLS nonfarm payrolls report, falling short of the 60,000 projected by most economists, and totals for November were revised down to 56,000 from the initial report of 64,000.

There is no doubt that the labor market is stuck. Only 584,000 jobs were added in 2025, averaging 49,000 per month, after 2 million jobs were added in 2024, averaging 168,000 per month. The decrease is widely attributed to the unpredictable operating environment for businesses because of ever-changing trade policies.

The Fed has repeatedly emphasized in recent month that supporting the supporting the labor market has been the driving force behind its three straight rate cuts of 25 basis point last fall. Further cuts are expected in 2026, and the December jobs report does nothing to change this outlook.

Still, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% in December from 4.5% in November despite softer job growth, the Fed is expected to wait and see for now.

The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals as on the growing likelihood that the Fed sit tight this month. Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a January rate cut at just 5%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on flight to safety as investors weighed growing risks of geopolitical uncertainty—the same motivator behind the rising gold price. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, its increasing rhetoric of taking control of Greenland, the continued fighting between Russia and Ukraine, and the growing unrest in Iran are all whetting appetite for safe havens.

Platinum rose 1.8% today and 7.2% this week. Palladium added 4.5% for a weekly jump of $14.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $40.60 to $4,490.30; silver rose $4.17 to $78.88; platinum picked up $41.35 to $2,278.30; and palladium climbed $78.70 to $1,603.70 an ounce.

1/8/2026: Gold steady ahead of payrolls data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold held steady near $4,500 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors weighed rising geopolitical risks ahead of tomorrow's release of crucial US payrolls data. Silver shed 3.1% to finish at $74.72 an ounce.

Global tensions ratcheted up after the US seized another pair of tankers linked to Venezuela, one flagged as Russian, in the Trump administration's latest attempt to control Venezuelan oil.

In addition, aggressive overtures by Trump to take control of Greenland on the pretext of national security continue to rile Europe. And tensions between Japan and China remain at the highest level since World War Two after Tokyo signaled that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger a military response.

HSBC said today that gold could reach $5,000 by mid-2026 on increasing geopolitical turmoil and rising US debt levels.

Against this backdrop, investors eagerly await tomorrow's release of the December nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the coming direction of interest rates. A Reuters poll forecasts a modest 60,000 jobs added, fewer than Novembers 64,000, with a slightly drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Fed funds futures trading projects 65 basis points in rate cuts in 2026, more than the Fed's own projection of 25. But further weakening of the labor market could trigger deeper cuts, which would benefit gold and silver by weakening the dollar and lowering yields.

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals, capping gold's rise by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up slightly, adding additional headwinds for the gold price.

Platinum fell 0.7% while palladium was virtually flat.

At the New York spot close: gold added 40 cents, to $4,449.70; silver shed $2.42 to $74.72; platinum slipped $16.45 to $2,236.95; and palladium picked up 80 cents to $1,757.45 an ounce.

1/7/2026: Gold slides on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.7% to close under $4,450 after mixed US economic data prompted traders to take profits from bullion's 3.7% rally over the previous two sessions. Silver shed 4.2% to finish at $77.13 an ounce after gaining more than 13% this week.

US hiring remained sluggish in December and jobs are harder to come by. ADP reported that private payrolls increased by merely 41,000 jobs, falling short of expectation, while November's total was revised down to a scant 29,000. Meanwhile, job openings tumbled to a 14-month low in November, according to the Labor Department.

In contrast with the stagnant labor market, the US services sector unexpectedly improved in December, according to ISM data. More than 70% of Americans are employed in services-related businesses.

Equities fell from near record territory, with the down dropping 1%, as banks and financial shares were hurt and AI uncertainty returned.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down slightly, backstopping gold's slide, as investors shifted from equities to the perceived safety of government debt. The dollar traded flat.

China's central bank bought gold for its currency reserves for the fourteenth straight month in December. Aggressive purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets, were a key driver of record gold prices in 2025, a trend that is expected to continue in 2026.

Platinum and palladium fell 7.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot gold slid $32.90 to $4,4449.30; silver fell $3.40 to $77.13; platinum dropped $180.60 to $2,233.40; and palladium lost $55.85 to $1,756.25 an ounce.

1/6/2026: Gold, silver surge on safety

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending yesterday's 2.7% rally, New York spot gold added another 1% to close above $4,482 on safe-haven inflows and expectations of looser monetary policy in 2026. Silver surged another 5.7% to finish at $80.53, rocketing more than 13% in two sessions.

Geopolitical unease following President Trump's armed incursion into Venezuela, amplified by suggestions from key administration officials that Greenland might be next, continues to drive safety-minded investors into precious metals.

Meanwhile, slowing US growth, weakening employment, and contained inflation are raising speculation that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than the Fed's so-called dot-plot projects. Falling interest rates are bullish for gold because they pressure the dollar and reduce bond yields, making gold less expensive in other currencies and reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.ds

The Fed has penciled in one more quarter-point reduction in 2026, fed funds futures traders anticipate at least 50 basis points in cuts, and perhaps more if the labor market continues to deteriorate. This Friday's release of the December nonfarm payrolls data should help to clarify the short-term outlook.

Gold's gains came despite rising risk appetite among stock traders, as the Dow rallied another 1% to finish above 49,000 for the first time. Expectations of lower interest rates and optimism about AI were the primary drivers.

Platinum and palladium rose 7.4% and 4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $45.30 to $4,482.30; silver surged $4.37 to $80.53; platinum picked up $164.50 to $2,434; and palladium rose $69.90 to $1,812.10 an ounce.

1/5/2026: Precious Metals Gain Following Maduro's Arrest

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all surged sharply as global market participants returned to business as usual following the New Years break. While US markets were open on Friday, January 2nd, the Shanghai gold exchange was closed from Dec. 31 until the market reopen in Asia Sunday evening US time. Following Friday’s US sell-off in thin holiday trading, all four precious metals moved higher once Asia resumed regular trading. Gains continued to accumulate in both the London and New York trading sessions.

Gold gained 2.75% to close the New York session at $4,436, silver surged 7.3% to $76.16, platinum rose 6.3% to $2,269 and palladium popped 7.9% to $1,742.

Heightened geopolitical tension following the sensational US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his wife in the early hours of Saturday morning helped boost the haven appeal once markets reopened Sunday evening.

Stocks in the US also gained with the Dow up almost 800 points or 1.65%, with the S&P and the NASDAQ both rising about 0.75% or 53 points and 175 points, respectively. The US dollar was down slightly on the US dollar index and the 10-year US treasury yield edged lower as well. Bitcoin gained 3.3% to $94,345.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $122.50 to $4,436.90; silver surged $5.60 to $76.16; platinum rose $143.80 to $2,269.50; and palladium advanced $138.50 to $1,742.20 an ounce.

12/31/2025: Metals ease to end amazing year

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 1% to close under $4,326 as traders took profits and squared their books on the last trading day of 2025. Bullion still gained 3.8% for the month and a whopping 65% for the year, its best since 1979. Silver shed around 10% today to finish at $70.13 but rose an astonishing 31% in December and 155% this year, also its best since 1979.

Positive jobs data helped to push the metals power during today's session. First time filings for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to 199,000, well under the 220,000 that were forecast. It was the third straight decline and seventh in the past eight weeks.

Yesterday's release of the minutes from the December Fed meeting also weighed on gold and silver. In delivering a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, the Fed was deeply divided over the decision, citing concerns about rekindled inflation, with some officials wanting to keep interest rates unchanged "for some time."

The dollar crept higher on the relatively hawkish news, but nonetheless posted in its worst year since 1973, dropping nearly 10% against major rivals because of tariff mayhem, falling interest rates, and global worries about US fiscal policies. Analysts expect further weakness in 2026. A weaker dollar boosts precious metals by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum fell nearly 9% today but shot up 28% this month and 135% this year. Palladium fell 5,4% for a monthly rise of 13% and a yearly gain of 76%. Supply deficits and industrial demand helped the PGMs to ride the slipstreams of gold and silver to a banner year.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $44.50 to $4,325.60; silver shed $7.24 to $70.13; platinum plunged $197.80 to $2,034.50; and palladium retreated by $91.46 to $1,615. 25 an ounce.

12/30/2025: Gold, silver rebound on safety

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded 1% to close above $4.370 after rekindled geopolitical turmoil brought in bargain hunters following yesterday's sharp correction from all-time highs. Silver surged more than 8% to finish $77.37 an ounce.

Renewed safe-haven demand dominated thin, holiday trading in precious metals after Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Putin's residence and vowed to retaliate, undermining reported progress in a possible ceasefire plan. Ukraine denied the accusation.

Separately, the markets await the release of the minutes from this month's Fed meeting to gauge the outlook for monetary policy. While the central bankers cut interest rates by a quarter-point for the third straight time, their decision was far from unanimous.

Fed funds futures traders currently anticipate two additional cuts in 2026, but hawkish dissent in the minutes, to be released later today, could change the rate view and affect gold and silver. Both metals thrive under lower interest rates, in part because lower rates weaken the dollar, which makes them less expensive in other currencies.

The dollar picked up less than 0.2% today as traders expected at least some Fed voices will resist further rate cuts until inflation stops climbing. But the buck is on track to drop more than 8% in 2025, its worst year since 2017.

All four precious have enjoyed a banner 2025. Gold's 66% rally this year, its best since 1979, has been driven by a weak dollar, lower interest rates, global de-dollarization, financial turmoil because of volatile trade policies, and aggressive buying by central banks.

Silver's astounding 162% rise has benefited from a five-year supply deficit, increased industrial demand, and, tracking gold, rising demand as a currency of last resort.

Platinum and palladium have soared 144% and 81% this year, respectively. In part, they have been swept higher in sympathy with gold and silver. But they have also been buoyed by their own strong fundamentals including supply deficits, tariff uncertainty, and renewed demand for use in catalytic converters after the EU rescinded its 2035 ban on combustion engines.

Today, platinum rebounded 6.7% while palladium picked up 5.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $45 to $4,370.10; silver surged $5.84 to $77.37; platinum climber $140.24 to $2,232.30; and palladium advanced $89.80 to $1,706.70 an ounce.

12/29/2025: Metals tumble on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 4.4% to close under $4,330 as traders took year-end profits from bullion's record finish above $4,529 last Friday. Silver shed 6.5% to finish at $71.53 after Friday's record high of $76.49 an ounce.

Reports over the weekend that President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made progress toward a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war drained some of the safe-haven premium from precious metals.

With the books on 2026 about to close, and with gold and silver having rallied an astounding 65% and 150% this year, respectively, some traders took profits off the table. Thin holiday trading, with decreased liquidity in the markets, pushed prices lower than fundamentals might warrant.

Silver's atomic rise has been driven by deep supply shortages, its status as a designated critical mineral, rising industrial demand, and aggressive speculation, especially in China.

Gold's best year since 1979 is the result of global de-dollarization, rising geopolitical conflict, unstable US trade policies, and aggressive buying by global central banks, especially China and emerging-market nations.

Platinum and palladium fell 6.7% and 7.8% respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $199.61 to $4,329.50; silver shed $4.96 to $71.53; platinum dropped $150.94 to $2,091.46; palladium retreated by $149.40 to $1,616.90 an ounce.

12/23/2025: Gold, silver set new records

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained another 0.9% to close at a fresh record-high near $4,483 on safe-haven inflows as the dollar retreated on rate-cut hopes after President Trump declared that agreeing with him about lowering rates is a prerequisite for the next Fed Chair. Silver surged another 3.8% to a new all-time high of $70.49 an ounce.

Escalating global tensions and rate-cut bets continue to fuel the remarkable rallies enjoyed by all four precious metals. Aggressive actions by the US toward Venezuela, including a naval blockade, the seizing of oil tankers, and bombardments of fishing boats allegedly carrying drugs, have raised the likelihood of armed conflict in this hemisphere.

Separately, President Trump said today that he wants the "new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well," and that “Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!”

This condition runs contrary to the freedom of the Fed, something that alarms most economists and financial markets. It is also contrary to mainstream financial wisdom, which would typically advocate holding interest rates steady or even raising them when the markets are strong to prevent overheating and inflation.

The dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals on the growing expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates further in 2026. The buck is on course for a yearly decline of nearly 10%, its worst since 2017. A weaker dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Silver's 140% rally this year continues to gather momentum, reaching new records by a five-year supply deficit, rising industrial demand, and speculative buying by funds and private ETF investors.

Platinum and palladium rallied 9% and 7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.20 to $4,482.80; silver surged $2.58 to $70.49; platinum picked up $186.75 to $2,270.75; and palladium roe $125.20 to $1,918.60 an ounce.

12/22/2025: Gold jumps to new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped 1.9% to close at a new all-time high of $4,444.60 on flights to safety, a weaker dollar, and expectations of further easing from the Fed. Silver surged 1.6% to finish at $67.91 an ounce after reaching a new record-high of $69.28 earlier in the session.

As part of President Trump's blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments, the US Coast Guard is pursuing another tanker in international waters, the second this weekend and the third in less than three weeks. This action follows ramped-up military presence near Venezuela as Trump pushes for regime change.

Oil climbed 2.6% to more than $58 a barrel on supply concerns. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Gold had been channeling near record high prices in recent weeks, buoyed by falling interest rates and concerns about stubborn inflation. The burgeoning conflict with Venezuela is catalyzing safe haven buying that could open the door to $5,000 in coming months if further rate cuts are forthcoming.

The dollar fell 0.3%, lifting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies. The buck has fallen nearly 10% this year, helping to fuel gold's meteoric rise.

Platinum and palladium climbed 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $83.20 to $4,4444.60; silver rose $1.06 to $67.91; platinum picked up $70.80 to $2,084; and palladium advanced $44.40 to $1,793.40 an ounce.