AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

7/3/2025: Gold slips on Fed rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $3,332 after stronger-than-expected jobs data dimmed the prospects for imminent rate cuts from the Fed, boosting the dollar and pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion still rose 1.7% for the holiday-shortened week. Silver climbed 1% to $36.78 for a weekly rise of 1.9%.

US nonfarm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, handily exceeding consensus forecasts of around 110,000 and pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.

While the headline numbers were solid, the details were softer. Nearly half the gains came from the government sector while the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, the fewest in eight months. And the lowered unemployment rate was attributed to more jobseekers giving up.

Still, the overall resiliency evident in the report makes it unlikely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates when it meets later this month, and more likely that rates will remain elevated through 2025. Fed fund futures traders now project 51 basis points in cuts this year, down from 66 before the NFP print.

In addition, the ISM reported the services sector nudged back into expansion in June after contracting in May. Service industries constitute around 70% of the economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.35% on the dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals. A weaker dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

Platinum fell 3.4% today but gained 2.3% this week. Palladium shed 1.3% but managed a weekly rise of 0.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $16.40 to $3,331.60; silver climbed 36 cents to $36.78; platinum dropped $49 to $1,372; and palladium lot $15 to $1,146 an ounce.

7/2/2025: Gold rises on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close at $3,348 after private payrolls contracted in June, perhaps putting the Fed on a path to lower interest rates sooner than expected. Silver jumped 1% to finish at $36.43 an ounce.

ADP reported privately run businesses cut 33,000 jobs in June as the worst trade wars since the 1930s are creating "hesitancy to hire and reluctance to replace" departing employees. It was the first net loss of jobs in more than two years.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the central bank will take a patient approach to rate cuts because of uncertainty surrounding US trade and tariff policies, he also suggested that the rate cut in July is not off the table.

If the upcoming and more-authoritative US nonfarm payrolls data reflect a deterioration in the labor market, the Fed may well be moved to lower rates. Fed fund futures now put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at 24%, up from 20% before the ADP release.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and lower Treasury yields, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers and reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead on bonds for safety.

Meanwhile, the House will try to pass the Senate's version of the Trump tax-cut and spending bill, which will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade.

Platinum and palladium rose 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $11.30 to $3,348; silver climbed 35 cents to $36.43; platinum picked up $75.10 to $1,421; and palladium advanced $58.10 to $1,161 an ounce.

7/1/2025: Gold gains on haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 1.3% to close near $3,337 on safe-haven inflows after President Trump's costly tax and spending bill passed the Senate, bringing it closer to reality. Silver added 0.6% to finish at $36.08 an ounce.

The so-called big, beautiful bill to extend tax cuts while cutting social programs appears to be on its way to becoming law after narrowly passing in the Senate. Now the House must approve the Senate's amendments.

The spending package will add $3.3 trillion to the already-massive US deficit over the next 10 years, increasing the national debt burden at a time when trade wars threaten to increase inflation and therefore the cost of servicing the debt.

Gold is often considered a store of value during times of political and economic uncertainty.

The ISM reported US manufacturing remained in contraction last month despite the temporary reduction in tariffs. The index came in at 49%, where readings over 50% signals expansion. New orders fell to 46%. A survey of executives said the trade wars are increasing costs while curbing demand and making it harder to plan.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated today that suspended tariffs are scheduled to resume on July 9.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up slightly while the dollar slipped.

Platinum and palladium added 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $42.30 to $3,336.70; silver climbed 23 cents to $36.08; platinum picked up $11.90 to $1,345.90; and palladium added $1.90, to $1,102.90 an ounce.

6/30/2025: Gold gains 5.5% in Q2

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to close above $3,294 as Treasury yields and the dollar declined on the exploding US deficit and possibility of trade deals with Canada and China. Bullion added 0.2% for the month and 5.5% for the quarter. Silver slipped 0.7% to finish at $35.85, posting a monthly rise of 11.7% and a quarterly increase of 4%.

With President Trump's so-called big, beautiful bill working its way through Congress, apparently destined to add more than $3 trillion to the already-monstrous $37 trillion deficit over 10 years, investors are nervous.

The dollar fell another 0.6%, putting it on track for its sixth straight monthly drop. So far this year the buck has lost nearly 12% against a basket of major rivals, its worst performance since the 1970s. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Also weighing on the dollar was measured optimism about possible trade agreements. Canada dropped a digital sales tax affecting US companies, opening the door to further negotiations. An agreement was reached this week between the US and China over rare earth minerals, renewing hopes for further talks.

US-induced trade wars and inflationary tariffs are creating uncertainty around policy decisions and the US economy, driving a rally in longer-term Treasurys that has lowered yields in recent weeks. Falling yields boosted gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

But short-term Treasurys are a different story. Trump said he wants to finance the added debt burden of his tax bill by issuing more short-term Treasury bills, apparently to reduce the interest cost that would otherwise accrue by issuing long-term debt. But skeptical bond traders are demanding more compensation to purchase this short-term debt, pushing yields up dramatically at the short end of the curve.

The White House has been increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, in part to offset this added debt service for tax cuts. Additional data this week on employment and jobless claims may give further clues about the Fed's coming decisions.

Platinum pulled back 0.5% today but rose 26.2% this month and 32.1% this quarter. Palladium shed 3.7% but held onto a monthly and quarterly rise of 10%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.70 to $3,294.40; silver slipped 24 cents to $35.85; platinum dipped $7.25 to $1,334; and palladium shed $42.80 to $1,101 an ounce.

6/27/2025: Gold falls to a one-month low

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.1% to close at a one-month low of $3,275 after a trade agreement with China reduced safe-haven demand while weak US data lowered expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Fed. Bullion lost 2.8% for the week. Silver dropped 1.4% but held a weekly rise of 0.3% to $36.09 an ounce.

The US and China reached an agreement on expediting rare earth shipments to the US, suggesting a thaw in frozen trade negotiations between the world's two biggest economies. Rare earths are key resources for the making of tech products.

With the truce between Israel and Iran apparently holding, the China agreement drained some of the safety premium out of the markets and lifted risk appetite. The Dow rose 1% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both added 0.5%.

The risk rally came despite another spate of soft US economic data. Consumer spending fell 0.1% in May, the first decline since January. Household spending accounts for 70% of the economy.

Separately, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% last month, lifting the 12-month rate to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that further rate cuts are dependent on inflation continuing to fall.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept back toward 4.3% on the soft data dimming rate view. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum fell 6.5% but still gained 6.1% this week. Palladium added 0.8% for a weekly rise of 8.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $58.90 to $3,275; silver shed 50 cents to $36.09; platinum lost $89.85 to $1,341.25; and palladium picked up $9.20 to $1,143.80 an ounce.

6/26/2025: Gold rises on dollar weakness

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.2% to close above $3.333 as the dollar fell to a 3-year low on soft US data and growing concerns about the future independence of the Fed. Silver rose 0.9% to finish at $36.59 an ounce.

The Commerce Department reported the economy slowed by a revised 0.5% in Q1, with GDP at an annualized 1.9%, compared to 2.4% in Q4 of last year. The falloff was attributed to reduced consumer spending, which comprises roughly 70% of GDP.

First-time jobless claims dipped last week, suggesting that layoffs are not increasing. But the Labir Department said state unemployment rose swelled in June to the highest level in 3-1/2 years, signaling that employers are hesitant to hire because of fluctuating tariff policies.

Against this backdrop the Fed is coming under increased pressure from the White House over interest rates. Testifying before Congress this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the likelihood of rekindled inflation because of tariffs will keep the Fed on hold.

But President Trump is demanding large rate cuts now. To turn up the heat, he mused today about appointing Powell's replacement now, effectively creating a shadow Chair to influence policy, nearly a year before Powell's term expires.

The dollar lost 0.6% as Forex traders grapple with the prospect of a more dovish and politicized Fed. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making the less expensive on the other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4.26%, supporting gold by reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium rose 5.8% and 7.9%, respectively, on ongoing supply concerns because of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is a major producer of both PMGs.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $6.40 to $3,333.50; silver rose 34 cents to $36.59; platinum climbed $78.70 to $1,431.10; and palladium advanced $84 to $1,153 an ounce.

6/25/2025: Gold gains on yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close above $3,327 as mildly dovish comments from Jerome Powell pressured Treasury yields and the dollar, lifting alternative stores of value ahead of some key data releases this week. Silver climbed 1.5% to finish at $36.55 an ounce.

In his second day of Congressional testimony on monetary policy, the Fed Chair told the Senate panel that the possibility of inflation from US tariff policies will keep the Fed vigilant for now. But Powell added that the central bank is likely to "cut rates sooner than later" if price-pressures remain contained.

Fed fund futures traders now see an 85% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut in September, followed by at least one more before 2026. But this week's release of GDP data and the PCE report on inflation will give a clearer view on interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped further beneath 4.3%, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar slid 0.2% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium added 2.4% and less than 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $9.70 to $3,327.10; silver surged 55 cents to $36.25; platinum picked up $31.70 to $1,352.40; and palladium rose 50 cents to $1,069 an ounce.

6/24/2025: Gold falls on Iran-Israel truce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.8% to close under $3,318 after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, reducing demand for safe havens and stoking risk appetite. Silver shed 1.2% to finish at $35.70 an ounce.

After two weeks of intensive missile strikes, Iran and Israel have entered a ceasefire in which both sides have proclaimed victory. While each has accused the other of violations already, the truce appears to be holding.

Wall Street cheered the news, with all three major US stock indexes rising more than 1.2%.

Oil prices tumbled 5.6% on reduced fears of a disruption in supply. Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for 20% of the world's oil, if Israel persisted in its attacks. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Against this backdrop, US consumer confidence waned unexpectedly in June on concerns that trade wars will impact the labor market and make jobs harder to find.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appearing before Congress, said expectations of higher prices and rising unemployment due to tariffs are likely to keep interest rates where they are for now.

President Trump today called for the Fed to lower rates by 200 to 300 basis points immediately. Fed fund futures markets project 50 basis points in cuts this year, starting in October.

Platinum advanced 2% while palladium retreated 1.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $60.30 to $3,317.40; silver slid 45 cents to $35.70; platinum picked up $27.20 to $1,320.70; and palladium dropped $13.30 to $1,068.50 an ounce.

6/23/2025: Gold gains on Iran bombing

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $3,378 on safe-haven inflows after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites and dovish comments from a Fed official pressured the dollar. Silver added 0.5% to finish at $36.15 an ounce.

In a surprise move over the weekend, President Trump ordered the bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran, dramatically increasing the potential for a wider war in the region. He also talked about forcing regime change to "make Iran great again."

Vowing retaliation, Iran reportedly launched missile at US military bases in Qatar and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping channel for 20% of the world's oil.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell back near 4.3% as investors sought the perceived safety of US government debt. Lower yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar dropped nearly 0.3% against major rivals after Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the time is approaching to cut interest rates. A weaker dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Potentially complicating the rate-cut outlook, S&P Global surveys found the cost of doing business for US companies rose in June at the fastest rate in 30 months on fallout from Trump tariffs.

Platinum and p0alladium climbed 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $9.60 to $3,377.70; silver rose 18 cents to $36.15; platinum picked up $29.50 to $1,293.50; and palladium advanced $25.80 to $1,081.80 an ounce.

6/20/2025: Gold slips on Iran war delay

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.6% to close just above $$3,368 despite softening in the dollar as President Trump postponed a decision about entering the war against Iran. Bullion lost 1.8% the week. Silver dropped 2.4% today and 0.8% this week to finish at $35.98 an ounce.

After threats and saber-rattling, including demands for unconditional surrender and declarations that he could kill Ayatollah Ali Khamene at any time, President Trump announced that he would take two weeks to decide whether to use the US military against Iran.

While the situation remains perilous, with Iran and Israel continuing to launch missile strikes against each other, the delay in US involvement eased anxiety about a dramatic escalation in the war.

The dollar rolled back as forex traders felt less urgency for safe-haven currencies, but the buck still gained around 0.6% for the week on flights to safety. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum fell 4.8% but still rose 4.4% for the week. Palladium slipped 0.6% for a weekly rise of 1.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $21.70 to $3,368.10; silver dropped 89 cents to $35.98; platinum shed $63.50 to $1,264; and palladium dipped $5.90 to $1,055.90 an ounce.