AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

8/15/2025: Gold edges up on weak dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up less than 0.1% to close at $3,336 as the dollar fell further after hot wholesale inflation damped expectations for aggressive easing from the Fed this fall. Bullion still fell 3% for the week on hawkish rate view. Silver was down 0.2% for the day and 1.4% for the week, finishing at $37.89 an ounce.

The market continued to digest yesterday's higher-than-expected Producer Price Index data for July. Wholesale prices jumped 0.9% to lift the 12-month rate of wholesale inflation from 2.4% to 3.3%, the highest in five months.

The PPI followed a CPI report earlier in the week showing consumer inflation unchanged at 2.7%. This surprisingly benign data prompted traders to speculate that the Fed could be inclined to cut interest rates by as much as 75 basis points this year. The hot PPI data signal higher consumer inflation is probably in the pipeline and reduces that chance.

But upbeat US retail sales data could complicate the Fed's outlook. Sales rose 0.5% in July, a second month of gains. But they were led by auto purchases as consumers tried to get ahead of higher prices caused by tariffs. Without cars, the rise was a more modest 0.3%,

The dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept back above 4.3% on reduced expectations for three rate cuts this year.

Platinum dropped 1.4% but posted a weekly rise of 0.6%. Palladium fell 2.6% today but gained 0.9% this week.

8/14/2025: Gold falls after hot PPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 0.7% to close above $3,335 after a hotter-than-expected PPI shifted the outlook for rate cuts from the Fed, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields. Silver lost 1.4% to finish under $40 an ounce.

The Producer Price Index for July jumped 0.9% to lift the 12-month rate of wholesale inflation from 2.4% to 3.3%, the highest in five months. Most of the increase occurred in goods directly affected by tariffs, especially food, signaling that higher consumer inflation is probably in the pipeline.

The data follows a relatively benign CPI report that prompted traders to speculate that the Fed could be inclined to cut interest rates by as much as 75 basis points this year, with a 50-point cut possible in September. Those hopes have largely been dashed.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point rate cut in September at 93%, virtually unchanged, while the odds of a second cut in October have fallen to 54% from 66% yesterday. The chance of a third cut in December has dropped to 40% from 55% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.3% on the shifting rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bond for safety,

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $23.50 to $3,335.20; silver shed 52 cents to $37.98; platinum picked up $19.90 to $1,356.85; and palladium rose $14.20 to $1,150.65 an ounce.

8/13/2025: Gold rises on dovish rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to finish near $3,359 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell on growing confidence that the Fed will substantially reduce interest rates this year. Silver rose 1.6% to finish at $38.50 an ounce.

Yesterday's mild CPI print showed the annual inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% in July despite higher tariffs. In addition, last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy adding just 73,000 jobs last month, while the totals for June and May were revised downward by a whopping 258,000.

The combination of low inflation and a weakening labor market virtually guarantees that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September. It also ups the odds of additional easing later in the year. The likelihood of 75 basis points in cuts by December is now 57%, according to CME FedWatch, up from less than 50% a week ago

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields receded under 4.3% on the rate view, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell 0.3%, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum dipped 0.4% while palladium rose 0.5%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $9.80 to $3,358.70; silver added 60 cents, to $38.50; platinum slipped $5.60 to $1,336.95; and palladium picked up $5.10 to $1,136.45 an ounce.

8/12/2025: Gold eases on CPI, tariff truce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.1% to close under $3,349 as mixed inflation data and an extension of the US-China tariff truce stoked risk appetite, undercutting safe-haven demand. Silver added 0.6% to finish at $37.90 an ounce.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July, in line with most forecasts, to keep the 12-month inflation rate subdued at 2.7%. Cheaper gasoline offset sharply higher costs in airfares and healthcare.

But the core-CPI excluding food and energy, a measure more closely watched by the Fed, came in a little hotter at 0.3%. It is the biggest increase six months, pushing the 12-month rate up to 3.1%.

The mixed inflation data suggests that tariff-related inflation has yet to have a strong impact on the economy. Investors await tomorrow's Producer Price Index for the latest data on wholesale inflation, which should reflect prices in the pipeline to consumers.

Separately, the White House announced that the trade truce with China will be extended for another 90 days, preventing extreme tariffs from taking effect for now. Without the extension, duties on Chinese goods would have jumped from 30% to 145%, while duties on U.S exports to China would have risen from 10% to 135%.

Wall Street cheered the tariff news, with all three major US indexes rallying at least 1%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose back to 4.3% as investors shifted from haven to risk assets.

Platinum rose 0.9% while palladium fell 2.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $4.20 to $3,348.90; silver rose 24 cents to $37.90; platinum picked up $11.70 to $1,342.55; and palladium lost $25.30 to $1,131.35 an ounce.

8/11/2025: Gold tumbles on tariff clarity

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 2.5% to close near $3,353 as the White House announced that bullion will not be subject to tariffs and traders positioned for tomorrow's important CPI release. Silver dropped 2% to finish at $37.66 an ounce.

Last Friday, gold futures jumped to a record above $3,500 after U.S. Customs and Border Protection posted on its website that gold bars could be subject to tariffs. Today, this premium drained from the gold price after President Trump posted in social media that gold will not, in fact, be tariffed.

Adding to pressure on bullion, the dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals on expectations that tomorrow's release of the latest CPI data will show inflation heating up because of tariffs. A stronger dollar weighs on gold by making it pricier in other currencies.

If the CPI surprises to the upside, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates despite last week's clear signs that the economy is slowing. Jobs, manufacturing, and services data all came in much weaker than forecast.

Platinum added less than 0.1% while palladium rose 2.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $86 to $3,353.10; silver shed 76 cents to $37.66; platinum picked up 70 cents to $1,330.85; and palladium rose $26.40 to $1,156.65 an ounce.

8/8/2025: Gold sees 2.7% weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1.1% to close above $3,439 while gold futures surged temporarily to a new record high above $3,500 on uncertainty about the impact of new tariffs on bullion imports. Gold ended the week 2.7% higher. Silver added 0.7% to finish at $38.42, posting a weekly rise of 4.4%.

The Financial Times reported that US Customs and Border Protection published a notice saying imported gold bars of 1 kilo and 100 ounces will be subject to Trump's new country-specific tariffs. Bars from Switzerland, the world's leading refiner, would therefore be subject to duties of 39%.

The notice sent tremors through the gold market, pushing futures prices above $3,500 temporarily and raising the prospect that the New York futures market would lose its standing as a hub of the gold trade.

After the market closed, the White House announced a forthcoming executive order would provide clarity on the policy, suggesting that the published notice was in error. Futures prices retreated toward $3,350 in electronic trade.

Spot gold prices, which trade on instant rather than future delivery, remain strongly supported this week by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this fall by as much as 75 basis points because of slowing economic growth and weakness in the labor market.

Platinum slipped 0.7% today but rose 2% this week. Palladium shed 2.4% for a weekly loss of 6.7%, undercut by easing concerns about sanctions against Russia, a leading producer.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.80 to $3,439.10; silver added 26 cents, to $38,42; platinum slid $9.90 to $1,329.55; and palladium shed $27.80 to $1,130.25 an ounce.

8/7/2025: Gold gains on tariffs, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to close above $3,400 despite an uptick in the dollar as the imposition of new tariffs stoked safe-haven demand while soft economic data raised hopes for rate cuts. Silver climbed 1% to finish at $38.16 an ounce.

First-time jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 226,000, the highest in a month, reinforcing the sense of slack in labor market. While layoffs remain minimal, hiring is slowing to a crawl as employers have been frozen by tariff uncertainty.

The data flow recently points toward weakness. Payroll growth has fallen precipitously for the past three months, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by merely 73,000 workers in July, while totals for May and June were revised lower by 258,000 jobs.

The ISM services index fell to just above contraction in July, signaling growth has nearly stalled out in 70% of the economy. And the ISM manufacturing index fell deeper into contraction for the fifth straight month.

Meanwhile, President Trump's most recent round of aggressive tariffs takes effect today, adding to trade tensions and uncertainty about the global economy.

Traders speculate that the softening data will lead the Fed to resume cutting interest rates in September. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a September cut of 25 basis points at nearly 92%, with a second one in October at 90%, and a third cut in December at nearly 50%.

Typically, a dovish rate outlook weighs on the dollar. But the buck gained 0.2% against major rivals today, in part because of reports that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is the favorite to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term is up in May.

While a policy dove, Waller is also highly respected in financial circles and recognized as a defender of Fed independence. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks in part because of fears that the Fed's independence would be compromised by Powell's successor.

Platinum and palladium rose 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.30 to $3,400.30; silver rose 39 cents to $38.16; platinum picked up $3.80 to $1,339.45; and palladium advanced $8.80 to $1,158.05 an ounce.

8/6/2025: Gold eases on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down less than 0.1% to close at $3,380 as traders took profits from four straight rising session that brought bullion to a two-week high. Silver added 0.1% to finish at $37.77 an ounce.

A stream of weaker US economic data over the pat week has increased the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and perhaps twice more in 2025. CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a September reduction of 25 basis points at 91%, p from around 60% a week ago.

Last Friday's nonfam payrolls report showed that the economy added merely 73,000 jobs last month while the totals for June and May were revised downward by a whopping 258,000.

In addition, growth in the services slowed almost to a halt, with the ISM index posting 50.1%, where anything under 50% signals contraction. Services account for 70% of the economy.

Wall Street rose on the prospects of a rate cut, pulling monies away from safe havens. The Dow added 0.3% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively, driven largely by investments in AI.

The dollar fell another 0.3% against major rivals on rate-cut prospects, limiting gold's slide. A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper overseas.

Platinum picked up 1.4% while palladium fell 2.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold eased $1.90 to $3,380; silver added 8 cents, to $37.77; platinum picked up $18.45 to %+$1,335.65; and palladium retreated $34.90 to $1,149.25 an ounce.

8/5/2025: Gold gains again on weak data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close near $3,382 after another spate of weak US economic data spurred safe-haven demand. It was bullion's fourth straight winning session. Silver climbed 1.3% to finish at $37.69 an ounce.

The US services sector barely grew in July, weighed down by rising costs, employment cuts, and the inability of firms to plan around chaotic trade policies. The ISM index showed US services companies, which constitute around 70% of the economy, slipped to 50.1%, where anything under 50% signals contraction.

The data comes one day after the ISM factory index showed US manufacturing contracting for the fifth straight month.

Corporate earnings at home and abroad have fallen by around $15 billion this quarter, according to Reuters, as tariffs weigh on demand and pinch profits. Companies in the manufacturing, automotive, and industrial sectors have been absorbing higher prices in hopes that the most aggressive tariffs since the 1930s would be temporary.

Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office raised its estimate of the national debt increase resulting from the recent Trump tax and budget bill to $4.1 trillion over the next 10 years, up from earlier estimates of $3.7 trillion.

Wall Street pulled back on the soft data, with the Dow and S&P 500 dropping 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

Concerns about the reliability of future economic data also weighed on sentiment after President Trump, claiming manipulation but offering no evidence, fired the head of the BLS because the latest nonfarm payrolls data showed deepening cracks in the labor market.

Platinum and palladium fell 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $7.50 to $3,381.90; silver jumped 50 cents to $37.69; platinum shed %9.20 to $1,317.20; and palladium lost $13.80 to $1,184.15 an ounce.

8/4/2025: Gold gains for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained another 0.8% to close above $3,374 as Treasury yields and the dollar slid on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates sooner than expected because of deteriorating US economic conditions. Silver rose 1.1% to finish at $37.19 an ounce.

US factory orders plunged 4.8% in June, according to the Commerce Department, reversing gains from May as commercial aircraft orders tumbled. The data reinforced Friday's ISM report that showed manufacturing contracted for the fifth straight month in July. Manufacturing accounts for nearly 11% of GDP.

Cracks in the labor market are widening under pressure from Trump administration trade policies. The economy added merely 73,000 workers to payrolls in July, while totals for May and June were revised lower by 258,000 jobs. Analysts say employers are reticent to fill openings because of confusion over ever-changing tariffs.

Against this backdrop, President Trump announced another round of massive tariffs, creating additional uncertainty for businesses and consumers.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped under 4.2% as traders speculated that softer US data will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a September cut at 87%, up from 65% last week.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell another 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum climbed 1.7% while palladium fell 1.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $27.70 to $3,374.40; silver rose 41 cent to $37.19; platinum picked up $22.40 to $1,326.40; and palladium shed $13.90 to $1,197.95 an ounce.