AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

8/1/2025: Gold surges on jobs, tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.7% to close at a one-week high above $3,347 after an abysmal jobs report and aggressive new Trump tariffs crushed the dollar and stoked demand for safe havens. Bullion picked up 0.4% for the week. Silver rose 0.7% to finish at $36.79, losing 3.6% on the week.

The US economy added merely 73,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said, with almost all hiring restricted to a single sector, healthcare. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, held in check only by a falling labor participation rate. So far this year, 1.5 million job seekers have given up and left the labor force.

Meanwhile, employment gains during the previous two months were revised drastically lower. June's initially reported total of 147,000 new jobs was slashed to just 14,000, while May's 144,000 total was revised down to 19,000.

Analysts attribute the cracks in the labor market to economic uncertainty generated by tumultuous trade policies, which have left employers reluctant to hire.

Against this backdrop, the White House announced a new round of draconian tariffs against dozens of trading partners. Imports from Switzerland will be subject to 39% duties, Brazil 50%, Taiwan 20%, and Canada 35%, to name a few.

Wall Street plunged on the jobs report and tariff news. The Dow shed 1.2% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to just above 4.2% as investors, fearful of stagflation, fled into the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar plummeted 1% against major rivals, boosting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Platinum rose 1.4% today but still lost 7.3% this week. Palladium added 1.5% for the day but slid 1.5% for the week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $54.50 to $3,347.20; silver rose 24 cents to $36.79; platinum picked up $17.60 to $1,304; and palladium advanced $18.30 to $1,211.85 an ounce.

7/31/2025: Gold holds steady for July

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down less than 0.1% to close above $3,293 as higher-than-expected inflation supported a hawkish Fed outlook, boosting the dollar and pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion was virtually unchanged for the month, dipping 80 cents. Silver fell 1.1% today but still gained 2% this month to finish at $36.55 an ounce.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.3% in June, the biggest increase in four months, as the inflationary effects of tariffs began to filter into the economy. The 12-month inflation rate rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in May. Core inflation, minus food and energy, also rose 0.3% to hold at an annualized 2.8%.

The stronger inflation data underpinned the Fed's decision yesterday to hold interest rates steady despite unrelenting pressure from the White House to slash by as much as 300 basis points, something that historically occurs only during the most extreme financial crises.

The Fed's dual mandate requires it to adjust monetary policy to maintain price stability and maximize employment. The inflation rate has been drifting higher, away from its target 2%, since the so-called "liberation day" tariffs were declared in April. Tomorrow's release of the latest nonfarm payrolls data will give further clues about the health of the labor market.

The dollar rose 0.2% against major rivals as traders anticipate that the Fed, responding to inflation data and lingering trade uncertainty, will keep interest rates at current levels. The buck enjoyed its first monthly gain of the year as a flurry of trade deals instilled new confidence among Forex traders.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum lost 5.5% today and 3.7% this month. Palladium shed 2.9% but still rallied 8% in July on supply concerns out of Russia, a leading producer, because of its war against Ukraine.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.60 to $3,293.20; silver shed $1.01 to $36.55; platinum fell $74.30 to $1,286.40; and palladium lost $29.20 to $1,193.55 an ounce.

7/30/2025: Gold falls on data, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1% to close under $3,296 after upbeat US economic data increased expectations that the Fed will delay cutting interest rates, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields while undercutting alternative stores of value. Silver shed 1.3% to finish at $37.57 an ounce.

The economy grew 3% in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department data, signaling resilience despite the turbulence caused by volatile trade policies. The solid headline number was inflated by sharply reduced imports as the result of the highest tariffs since the 1930s.

ADP reported private payrolls grew by 104,000 jobs in July, more than forecast, as the easing of trade wars gave employers more confidence to hire additional workers. ADP payrolls declined by 23,000 in June.

Against this backdrop, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on policy, a decision that was widely expected despite extreme pressure from President Trump to cut rates heavily. For the first time since 1993, two Fed Governors, Trump appointees in line to replace Chairman Powell, dissented from the Fed's decision.

The dollar rallied 1% against major rivals as traders speculated that the solid economic data may reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see posture before cutting rates. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rose, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding the non-yielding asset instead of bonds.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $32.95 to $3,295.80; silver dropped 51 cents to $37.57; platinum shed $39.65 to $1,360.70; and palladium slid $36.80 to $1,22275 an ounce.

7/29/2025: Gold gains on China uncertainty

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to close above $3,328 on safe-haven inflows as Treasury yields retreated ahead of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy and the uncertain outcome of trade talks with China. Silver added 0.2% to $38.08 an ounce.

Top US and China representatives met for a second day in Stockholm, attempting resolve fundamental economic disputes and avert a damaging trade war. While hoping for a 90-day extension in the current tariff truce, traders hedged against negative outcomes with gold and Treasurys.

Risk appetite on Wall Street, whetting recently by the EU and Japan trade agreements, was dulled today by China uncertainty, mixed US data, and softer-than-expected corporate earnings.

US housing prices grew by the smallest percentage in nearly two years behind high mortgage rates and increasing affordability. Consumer confidence ticked slightly higher in July, lifted by higher stock prices and easing inflation, but economic expectations remained pessimistic.

The Fed began its two-day meeting on monetary policy amid widespread expectations that it will hold interest rates unchanged despite near-constant pressure from the Whie House to cut rates. Fed fund traders project cuts of 50 basis points later this year, beginning in October.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped under 4.4% as investors sought the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields boost gold by lowering the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds.

Platinum and palladium rose 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.45 to $3,328.75; silver added 6 cents, to $38.08; platinum picked up $11.55 to $1,400.75; and palladi8um rose $13.65 to %1,259.55 an ounce.

7/28/2025: Gold slips on EU trade deal

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 0.7% to close near a three-week low above $3,310 after a weekend trade agreement between the US and EU boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, undercutting alternative stores of value. Silver slipped 0.4% to finish at $38.03 an ounce.

President Trump and EC President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal that imposes 15% tariffs on goods imported into the US, half of the draconian 30% that each side had been threatening. The deal echoes the one with Japan in carving out exceptions.

Trump today declared that all other nations—some 200—who do no strike individual deals will be subject to tariffs of 15% to 20%, much stiffer than the 10% global tariff he imposed in April. No movement on a China deal has been reported.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.4% as investors, relieved that another trade war has been averted, shifted out of the perceived safety of government debt. Rising yields are a headwind for gold because they increase the opportunity cost for holding the non-yielding asset instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar climbed 1% against major rivals, in part because the inflationary potential of tariffs may slow the Fed in cutting interest rates. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Traders await this week's meeting of the Fed for further clues on the direction of interest rates. Despite often extreme pressure from the White House to lower rates, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, awaiting more evidence on the effects of trade policies.

Platinum fell 1.3% while palladium rose 1.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $23.70 to $3,310.30; silver slid 14 cents to $38.03; platinum dropped $18.60 to $1,388.80; and palladium picked up $16.20 to $1,245.90 an ounce.

7/25/2025: Gold drops on trade hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.1% to close at $3,334 as stocks and the dollar rose on trade optimism, pressuring safe-haven assets. Bullion ended the week 0.6% lower. Silver dropped 2.2% for the day and 0.1% for the week to finish at $38.17 an ounce.

The European Commission said today that a trade agreement between the EU and US is within reach, although individual member nations are readying sizable tariffs against the US if a deal is not forthcoming. Baseline duties on imports from the EU to the US are estimated to be 15%.

Relief about easing global trade tensions sent all major US stock indexes higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high. The rise in risk appetite came despite data new orders for US-made capitol goods fell unexpectedly in June, and overall business spending slowed significantly in Q2 because of confusion over trade policies.

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum fell 1.2% for a weekly loss of 2.2%. Palladium dropped 0.9% today and 4.8% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $37 to $3,334; silver shed 85 cents to $38.17; platinum slid $17.20 to $1,407.40; and palladium shed $11.55 to $1,229.70 an ounce.

7/24/2025: Gold slips on yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.7% to close at $3,371 as upbeat economic data and fading trade war worries pressuring safe-haven assets for a second day. Silver also slid 0.7% to finish at $39.02 an ounce.

The US and EU are nearing an agreement to place 15% duties on goods imported into the US. The likely deal follows a similar agreement with Japan earlier this week, helping to soften concerns about damaging trade wars with two major trading partners.

Meanwhile, S&P Global reported that the US services sector grew sharply in June, with the PMI rising above 55, where anything over 50 signals expansion. The manufacturing sector fell into contraction, however, with a PMI of 49.5, the lowest in seven months.

The combined surveys show an economy expanding at a rate of 2.3%, up from 1.3% after Q1. However, price pressure intensified in both sectors.

First-time jobless claims fell by 4,000 last week to 217,000, the lowest level since April. It was the sixth straight week of lower claims, indicating resilience in the labor market despite trade turmoil.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.4% as investors shifted out of safe-haven assets. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking with yield, the dollar added less than 0.2% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $23.10 to $3,371; silver shed 26 cents to $39.02; platinum dropped $26.60 to 1,411.10; and palladium lost $27.25 to $1,241.25 an ounce.

7/23/2025: Gold falls on trade deals

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.3% to close under $3,395 after the White House reached a trade deal with Japan and is close to one with the EU, whetting risk appetite and undercutting safe-haven assets. Silver dipped 0.1% to finish at $39.28 an ounce.

The US and Japan agreed to a trade deal that lowers imports on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a package of $550 billion in investments and loans to the US. In addition, Japan will purchase 100 Boeing airplanes and increase defense spending with US firms.

On the heels of the Japan deal, the US and the EU are close to completing a deal that puts a broad15% duty on goods imported from Europe, preventing aggressive countermeasures of 30% tariffs on US goods imported into the EU.

Wall Street cheered the news, with the Dow rising 1% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to just under 4.4% as investors shifted away from bonds and into stocks. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium fell 1.9% and 0.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $45.10 to $3,394.10; silver slipped 4 cents to $39.28; platinum dropped $27.80 to $1,437.70; and palladium shed $3.50 to $1,278.50 an ounce.

7/22/2025: Gold adds 1% on tariffs, Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied another 1.1% to close above $3,439 on safe-haven inflows as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated further on tariff and Fed uncertainty. Bullion has risen 2.3% over three straight winning sessions. Silver added 0.6% to finish at $39.32 an ounce.

With President Trump's tariff deadline of August 1 approaching with few notable deals, investors are bracing for economic headwinds from deepening trade wars. Pessimistic about a viable agreement, the EU is reportedly exploring countermeasures to the 30% tariffs threatened by the White House.

Trump backed off his near daily threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, repeating his "numbskull" insults but declaring that Powell "will be gone" in eight months. The Fed Chair's term expires in 10 months.

At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated the implication of wrongdoing by Powell over improvements at the Federal Reserve offices.

Trump wants the Fed to slash interest rates by 300 basis points to under 2% at its meeting next week, something few outside of the White House consider sound policy. Fed fund futures traders project a cut of 25 basis points in October, followed by another in December, as the Fed cautiously monitors the inflationary effects of current trade policies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped again on flights to safety, supporting gold by decreasing the opportunity costs of holding it instead of bonds. The dollar lost another 0.5% against major rivals, especially the safe-haven yen, boosting gold by making it cheaper overseas.

Platinum slipped 0.8% while palladium added 1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $37.30 to $3,439.20; silver rose 22 cents to $39.32; platinum dropped $12.20 to $1,465.50; and palladium added $12.20, to $1,282 an ounce.

7/21/2025: Gold tops $3,400 on Fed worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped 1.5% to close at a five-week high above $3,401 as the dollar and Treasury yields fell further on trade uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence. Silver surged 2.3% to finish at $39.10 an ounce.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today that "the entire Federal Reserve institution" needs to be "examined," adding to concerns that the Trump administration is planning a major shakeup that may bring monetary policy under the authority of the President.

The statement came after Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a "numbskull" last week and floated his termination, an act of dubious legality, to several Republican lawmakers. Worried that global faith in US sovereign debt and the dollar would be undermined, the markets went into a panic until Trump retracted the idea,

The dollar fell 0.7% against major rivals on the rekindled threats against the Fed, lifting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rolled back on flights to safety, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Against this backdrop, the August 1 deadline is approaching for trading partners to cut deals with the US or be subject to large tariffs, deepening trade wars. The EU is reportedly exploring counter measures.

Platinum rose 2.7% while palladium fell 1.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold jumped $48.90 to $3,401.90; silver surged 88 cents to $39.10; platinum picked up $39.20 to $1,477.70; and palladium shed $22.10 to $1,269.80 an ounce.