AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

7/11/2025: Gold rallies on more tariff salvos

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.2% to close at a two-week high of $3,356 on flights to safety after the White House announced yet more new tariffs, rattling markets. Bullion ended the week with a gain of 0.7%. Silver rose 4.4% to $38.68 for a weekly increase of 5.2%.

President Trump threatened Canada with 35% tariffs, separate from sectional tariffs already in place. However, the new edict exempts items covered by the US-Mexico-Canada-Trade-Agreement, which comprise around 38% of imports from Canada.

The latest shakeup in trade relations follows announcement earlier this week of new 25% duties on 12 major partners like South Korea and Japan, along with 20% to 30% duties on 7 minor trading partners, plus 50% duties on imported copper and 50% tariffs on Brazil, with whom the US already has a trade surplus.

According to the International Chamber of Commerce, US consumers will now pay an effective tariff rate of more than 20%, the highest since the early 1900s. The effective rate was 16%, the highest since the 1930s, after Trump's "Liberation Day" launch of tariffs in April.

The Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, while the VIX volatility index jumped 1.7% after the new trade salvos.

Platinum rose 4.1% for a weekly gain of 5.8%. Palladium added3.1% today and 6.7% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.60 to $3,356; silver surged $1.64 to $38.68; platinum picked up $57.10 to $1,452; and palladium advanced $36.40 to $1,223.30 an ounce.

7/10/2025: Gold rises with trade anxiety

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close above $3,317 on safe-haven inflows despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders digested the latest tariff salvos from the White House. Silver rose 1.9% to finish above $37 an ounce.

Present Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazil effective August 1, citing his displeasure with the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump supporter during his first term. Bolsonaro is on trial for plotting a coup to prevent his elected successor, current President Lula da Silva, from taking office, something Trump has dismissed as "a witch hunt."

It is the latest in a series of new tariffs that have reawakened dormant trade anxieties. Earlier this week, Trump levied 25% duties on major partners like South Korea, Japan, and12 other nations. Then he placed 20% to 30% duties on seven minor trading partners, including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and others. He also issued a 50% tariff on copper imports.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged higher after first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, fueling a mild appetite for risk on Wall Street. The Dow added 0.4% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar picked up less than 0.1% against major rivals.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.8$ and 6.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.80 to $3,317.40; silver jumped 69 cents to $37.04; platinum climbed $24.30 to $1,394.90; and palladium surged $71.70 to $1,186.90 an ounce.

7/9/2025: Gold gains on new tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to close near $3,312 as rekindled trade war worries pushed investors towards safe havens and pressured Treasury yields. Silver slipped 0.3% to finish at $36.15 an ounce.

President Trump today announced new tariffs of between 20% and 30% on seven minor trading partners, including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and others. The move comes after new tariff announcements of 25% on major partners like South Korea and Japan along with 12 other nations. And yesterday Trump raised duties on imported copper to 50%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rolled back as investors sought protection from the highest US tariffs since 1934, when protectionist trade policies deepened the Great Depression.

The dollar was little changed.

Gold's gains were capped by somewhat hawkish minutes from the Fed's last meeting on monetary policy. Only "a couple" of committee members advocated lowered interest rates in July, while the majority remained concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump trade policies.

Platinum slipped 0.4% while palladium rose 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4.60 to $3,311.60; silver slid 12 cents to $36.35; platinum dipped $6 to $1,370.60; and palladium picked up $4.20 to $1,115.20 an ounce.

7/3/2025: Gold slips on Fed rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $3,332 after stronger-than-expected jobs data dimmed the prospects for imminent rate cuts from the Fed, boosting the dollar and pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion still rose 1.7% for the holiday-shortened week. Silver climbed 1% to $36.78 for a weekly rise of 1.9%.

US nonfarm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, handily exceeding consensus forecasts of around 110,000 and pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.

While the headline numbers were solid, the details were softer. Nearly half the gains came from the government sector while the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, the fewest in eight months. And the lowered unemployment rate was attributed to more jobseekers giving up.

Still, the overall resiliency evident in the report makes it unlikely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates when it meets later this month, and more likely that rates will remain elevated through 2025. Fed fund futures traders now project 51 basis points in cuts this year, down from 66 before the NFP print.

In addition, the ISM reported the services sector nudged back into expansion in June after contracting in May. Service industries constitute around 70% of the economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.35% on the dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals. A weaker dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

Platinum fell 3.4% today but gained 2.3% this week. Palladium shed 1.3% but managed a weekly rise of 0.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $16.40 to $3,331.60; silver climbed 36 cents to $36.78; platinum dropped $49 to $1,372; and palladium lot $15 to $1,146 an ounce.

7/2/2025: Gold rises on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close at $3,348 after private payrolls contracted in June, perhaps putting the Fed on a path to lower interest rates sooner than expected. Silver jumped 1% to finish at $36.43 an ounce.

ADP reported privately run businesses cut 33,000 jobs in June as the worst trade wars since the 1930s are creating "hesitancy to hire and reluctance to replace" departing employees. It was the first net loss of jobs in more than two years.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the central bank will take a patient approach to rate cuts because of uncertainty surrounding US trade and tariff policies, he also suggested that the rate cut in July is not off the table.

If the upcoming and more-authoritative US nonfarm payrolls data reflect a deterioration in the labor market, the Fed may well be moved to lower rates. Fed fund futures now put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at 24%, up from 20% before the ADP release.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and lower Treasury yields, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers and reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead on bonds for safety.

Meanwhile, the House will try to pass the Senate's version of the Trump tax-cut and spending bill, which will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade.

Platinum and palladium rose 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $11.30 to $3,348; silver climbed 35 cents to $36.43; platinum picked up $75.10 to $1,421; and palladium advanced $58.10 to $1,161 an ounce.

7/1/2025: Gold gains on haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 1.3% to close near $3,337 on safe-haven inflows after President Trump's costly tax and spending bill passed the Senate, bringing it closer to reality. Silver added 0.6% to finish at $36.08 an ounce.

The so-called big, beautiful bill to extend tax cuts while cutting social programs appears to be on its way to becoming law after narrowly passing in the Senate. Now the House must approve the Senate's amendments.

The spending package will add $3.3 trillion to the already-massive US deficit over the next 10 years, increasing the national debt burden at a time when trade wars threaten to increase inflation and therefore the cost of servicing the debt.

Gold is often considered a store of value during times of political and economic uncertainty.

The ISM reported US manufacturing remained in contraction last month despite the temporary reduction in tariffs. The index came in at 49%, where readings over 50% signals expansion. New orders fell to 46%. A survey of executives said the trade wars are increasing costs while curbing demand and making it harder to plan.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated today that suspended tariffs are scheduled to resume on July 9.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up slightly while the dollar slipped.

Platinum and palladium added 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $42.30 to $3,336.70; silver climbed 23 cents to $36.08; platinum picked up $11.90 to $1,345.90; and palladium added $1.90, to $1,102.90 an ounce.

6/30/2025: Gold gains 5.5% in Q2

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to close above $3,294 as Treasury yields and the dollar declined on the exploding US deficit and possibility of trade deals with Canada and China. Bullion added 0.2% for the month and 5.5% for the quarter. Silver slipped 0.7% to finish at $35.85, posting a monthly rise of 11.7% and a quarterly increase of 4%.

With President Trump's so-called big, beautiful bill working its way through Congress, apparently destined to add more than $3 trillion to the already-monstrous $37 trillion deficit over 10 years, investors are nervous.

The dollar fell another 0.6%, putting it on track for its sixth straight monthly drop. So far this year the buck has lost nearly 12% against a basket of major rivals, its worst performance since the 1970s. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Also weighing on the dollar was measured optimism about possible trade agreements. Canada dropped a digital sales tax affecting US companies, opening the door to further negotiations. An agreement was reached this week between the US and China over rare earth minerals, renewing hopes for further talks.

US-induced trade wars and inflationary tariffs are creating uncertainty around policy decisions and the US economy, driving a rally in longer-term Treasurys that has lowered yields in recent weeks. Falling yields boosted gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

But short-term Treasurys are a different story. Trump said he wants to finance the added debt burden of his tax bill by issuing more short-term Treasury bills, apparently to reduce the interest cost that would otherwise accrue by issuing long-term debt. But skeptical bond traders are demanding more compensation to purchase this short-term debt, pushing yields up dramatically at the short end of the curve.

The White House has been increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, in part to offset this added debt service for tax cuts. Additional data this week on employment and jobless claims may give further clues about the Fed's coming decisions.

Platinum pulled back 0.5% today but rose 26.2% this month and 32.1% this quarter. Palladium shed 3.7% but held onto a monthly and quarterly rise of 10%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.70 to $3,294.40; silver slipped 24 cents to $35.85; platinum dipped $7.25 to $1,334; and palladium shed $42.80 to $1,101 an ounce.

6/27/2025: Gold falls to a one-month low

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.1% to close at a one-month low of $3,275 after a trade agreement with China reduced safe-haven demand while weak US data lowered expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Fed. Bullion lost 2.8% for the week. Silver dropped 1.4% but held a weekly rise of 0.3% to $36.09 an ounce.

The US and China reached an agreement on expediting rare earth shipments to the US, suggesting a thaw in frozen trade negotiations between the world's two biggest economies. Rare earths are key resources for the making of tech products.

With the truce between Israel and Iran apparently holding, the China agreement drained some of the safety premium out of the markets and lifted risk appetite. The Dow rose 1% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both added 0.5%.

The risk rally came despite another spate of soft US economic data. Consumer spending fell 0.1% in May, the first decline since January. Household spending accounts for 70% of the economy.

Separately, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% last month, lifting the 12-month rate to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that further rate cuts are dependent on inflation continuing to fall.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept back toward 4.3% on the soft data dimming rate view. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum fell 6.5% but still gained 6.1% this week. Palladium added 0.8% for a weekly rise of 8.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $58.90 to $3,275; silver shed 50 cents to $36.09; platinum lost $89.85 to $1,341.25; and palladium picked up $9.20 to $1,143.80 an ounce.

6/26/2025: Gold rises on dollar weakness

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.2% to close above $3.333 as the dollar fell to a 3-year low on soft US data and growing concerns about the future independence of the Fed. Silver rose 0.9% to finish at $36.59 an ounce.

The Commerce Department reported the economy slowed by a revised 0.5% in Q1, with GDP at an annualized 1.9%, compared to 2.4% in Q4 of last year. The falloff was attributed to reduced consumer spending, which comprises roughly 70% of GDP.

First-time jobless claims dipped last week, suggesting that layoffs are not increasing. But the Labir Department said state unemployment rose swelled in June to the highest level in 3-1/2 years, signaling that employers are hesitant to hire because of fluctuating tariff policies.

Against this backdrop the Fed is coming under increased pressure from the White House over interest rates. Testifying before Congress this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the likelihood of rekindled inflation because of tariffs will keep the Fed on hold.

But President Trump is demanding large rate cuts now. To turn up the heat, he mused today about appointing Powell's replacement now, effectively creating a shadow Chair to influence policy, nearly a year before Powell's term expires.

The dollar lost 0.6% as Forex traders grapple with the prospect of a more dovish and politicized Fed. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making the less expensive on the other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4.26%, supporting gold by reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium rose 5.8% and 7.9%, respectively, on ongoing supply concerns because of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is a major producer of both PMGs.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $6.40 to $3,333.50; silver rose 34 cents to $36.59; platinum climbed $78.70 to $1,431.10; and palladium advanced $84 to $1,153 an ounce.

6/25/2025: Gold gains on yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close above $3,327 as mildly dovish comments from Jerome Powell pressured Treasury yields and the dollar, lifting alternative stores of value ahead of some key data releases this week. Silver climbed 1.5% to finish at $36.55 an ounce.

In his second day of Congressional testimony on monetary policy, the Fed Chair told the Senate panel that the possibility of inflation from US tariff policies will keep the Fed vigilant for now. But Powell added that the central bank is likely to "cut rates sooner than later" if price-pressures remain contained.

Fed fund futures traders now see an 85% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut in September, followed by at least one more before 2026. But this week's release of GDP data and the PCE report on inflation will give a clearer view on interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped further beneath 4.3%, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar slid 0.2% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium added 2.4% and less than 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $9.70 to $3,327.10; silver surged 55 cents to $36.25; platinum picked up $31.70 to $1,352.40; and palladium rose 50 cents to $1,069 an ounce.