AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

4/15/2026: Gold slips on peace progress

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close at $4,800 as peace talks between the US and Iran lifted Treasury yields and pressured safe-haven assets. Silver rose 0.1% to finish at $79.49 an ounce.

Signs of de-escalation in the US war on Iran spurred risk appetite today, pushing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ higher by 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively, into record territory. With negotiators meeting in Pakistan, President Trump said the war is "almost over," although the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose as investors left the perceived safety of government debt for equities. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Oil prices were little changed, with US benchmark hovering around $91.28 a barrel.

The war against Iran has eroded business conditions across the US, according to the Fed's Beige Book. Hiring, pricing, and capital investment have been complicated by the energy shock resulting from the war.

The cost of imported goods rose sharply in March for the third month in a row, with an annualized increase of nearly 10%, the biggest in four years.

Platinum rose 1.4% while palladium dipped 0.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $25 to $4.800; silver added 10 cents, to $79.49; platinum picked up $28.30 to $2,112. 90; and palladium shed $2.75 to $1,576.65 an ounce.

4/14/2026: Gold gains on falling oil, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1.7% to close at $4,825 as the prospect of continued peace talks between Iran and the US put downward pressure on oil and the dollar while reviving rate-cut expectations. Silver surged 5.1% to $79.39 an ounce.

President Trump announced another round of peace talks could take place in Pakistan "over the next two days," signaling openness on both sides to end the war and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

US benchmark WTI crude tumbled 7.2% to under $92 per barrel on the ceasefire news, lowering inflation expectations and raising hopes that the Fed may reduce interest rates later this year. Bond traders are now pricing in a 33% chance of a single quarter-point cut, up from none just a few weeks ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped under 4.3% and the dollar lost 0.2% on the shifting rate view.

Whereas gold typically trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation, the US war on Iran has upended that correlation by introducing energy shocks that could raise global inflation, forcing central banks to increase interest rates. Falling oil prices potentially lower the inflationary risk and the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Falling rates lift gold by decreasing the opportunity costs for holding it and by pressuring the dollar, making it cheaper in other currencies.

Against this backdrop, US wholesale inflation came in lower than expected in March, with the PPI for final demand rising 0.5%, high but well under the 1.1% projected by most economists. Still, gasoline and diesel prices hit seasonal all-time highs.

Platinum and palladium added 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $82.60 to $4,825; silver surged $3.87 to $79.39; platinum picked p $22.80 to $2,084.60; and palladium advanced (.60 to $1,576.40 an ounce.

4/13/2026: Gold slips on oil, inflation

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.4% to close under $4,743 after peace talks between the US and Iran fell apart over the weekend, causing oil prices to spike higher and inflation expectations to rise. Silver rose 1% to finish at $75.52 an ounce.

After the initial peace talks came to nothing, President Trump announced a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to stop Iranian oil from entering the market. Tehran, in turn, threatened retaliation against the oil shipments of its neighbors in the Gulf.

The re-escalation of the US war on Iran immediately drove global benchmark Brent crude 7% higher to more than $100 a barrel.

In ordinary circumstances, sharply higher oil prices would trigger a rally in gold as a hedge against energy-related inflation. But the current market sees this energy-crunch as a global inflationary event that may prompt central banks to raise interest rates. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The IMF and World Bank signaled they will downgrade their forecasts for global growth and raise inflation targets because of the war. Dozens of nations including Germany, Sweden, and Britain, and indicated they will provide relief to citizens because of higher energy costs.

US home sales fell to a none-month low in March due to growing worries about the jobs and rising mortgage costs because of the Iran war.

Platinum added less than 0.1% and palladium rose 2.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $19.50 to $4,742.40; silver climbed 80 cents to $75.52; platinum added $12.70, to $2,061.80; and palladium advanced $34.15 to $1,569.80 an ounce.

4/10/2026: Gold post 2.4% weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.6% to close under $4,762 on profit-taking after four straight winning sessions despite a dip in the dollar and sharply higher consumer inflation. Bullion gained 2.4% for the week on hopes that the Middle East ceasefire could still bring rate cuts from the Fed this year. Silver slipped less than 0.1% to finish at $76.32, notching a weekly rise of 4.9%.

The CPI for March showed prices surge 0.9%, the most in nearly four years, boosting the 12-month inflation rate to 3.3%, the most since 2024. The US war on Iran is directly responsible for three-quarters of the massive rise by triggering a record 21% increase in gasoline prices.

Factoring out energy and food prices, the so-called core CPI rose a modest 0.2% for March, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%. The cost of services, which contribute roughly nearly 80% of GDP, also rose 0.2%.

Although economists expect the energy shock to continue for some time, tame inflation readings for services and many goods could induce the Fed to lower interest rats later this year, especially if the fragile the US-Iran ceasefire holds.

The dollar fell 0.1% on the slightly dovish outlook for rates because of mild core inflation, but benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose as traders anticipate lower rates toward the end of 2026.

Platinum lost 2.3% but held a weekly rise of 4.3%. Palladium dropped 1.7% for the day and 2.2% for the week.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $30.30 to $4,671.90; silver added 5 cents, to $76.32; platinum shed $47.50 to $2,049.10; and palladium dropped $26.50 to $1,535.65 an ounce.

4/9/2026: Gold gains for fourth session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained for a fourth session, adding another 0.9% to close above $4,792 as the dollar fell and oil rose on concerns about the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire. Silver climbed 1.4% to finish at $76.27 an ounce.

In violation of one of Iran's demands, Israel launched its most intensive strikes on Lebanon since the war began, prompting worries that the ceasefire will not hold. Re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, a central US demand, has not occurred.

US benchmark WTI crude jumped 3.8% to $98 per barrel on the continuing hostilities. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The PCE index showed US inflation rose 0.4% in February, the biggest jump in a year, to keep the 12-momnth rate at 2.8%. So-called core inflation, less food and energy, rose 0.4% for a 12-month rate of 3%, down from 3.1% in January. These readings were before the US war on Iran.

Yesterday's release of the minutes from the Fed's march meeting showed a divided committee. A group of members advocated higher interest rates this year to combat rising inflation, while "many" believed that up to two quarter-point cuts are still possible if the war subsides quickly.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals, lifting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Platinum rose 2.2% while palladium fell 1.6%.

At the New York spot closes: gold gained $42.70 to $4,792.20; silver rose $1.05 to $76.27; platinum picked up $46 to $2,096.60; and palladium shed $24.90 to $1,562.15 an ounce.

4/8/2026: Gold rallies on Iran ceasefire

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 2% to close near $4,750 as oil and the dollar plunged on news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Silver surged 4.7% to finish at $75.22 an ounce.

President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran within hours of his deadline threat to destroy the Iranian civilization. In the meantime, Israel stepped up its bombing of Lebanon and Iran continued attacks on its Gulf neighbors. No timeline for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been agreed upon.

While tenuous, the agreement nonetheless stoked risk appetite on Wall Street, with all three major US indexes rising more than 2.4%. Global benchmark Brent crude tumbled nearly 14% to less than $95 per barrel on the prospect of increased supply because of the ceasefire.

The dollar lost 1% against major rivals, wiping out all gains for the year, as traders anticipate that falling oil prices may undercut inflation and encourage the Fed to cut interest rates this year—or at least refrain from raising them.

While gold typically trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation, the US war on Iran largely upended this correlation. Because of rapidly escalating oil prices, the Fed was increasingly expected to hold rates steady this year or even raise them.

Falling oil prices flip the script, putting rate cuts back on the table in 2026. Lower rates weaken the dollar, boosting gold by making it cheaper in other currencies. They also lower bond yields, reducing the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds for safety.

Bullion has fallen 9% since the initial US attack on Iran in late February. If the ceasefire holds, the fundamentals that drove it to a series of record highs before the war—geopolitical turmoil, global de-dollarization, economic uncertainty due to erratic US trade policies, strong central bank buying—should be able to reassert themselves.

Platinum and palladium climbed 6.3% and 8.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $92.40 to $4,749.50; silver surged $3.40 to $75.22; platinum rose $121.45 to $2,050.60; palladium climbed $125.50 to $1,587.05 an ounce.

4/7/2026: Gold steady before Iran deadline

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold held steady, inching up 30 cents to close above $4,657 as the dollar fell and ahead of President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Silver shed 1.2% to finish at $71.82.

Trump reiterated his threat to obliterate Iran's infrastructure, warning that "a whole civilization will die" if Tehran does not agree to a ceasefire by 5pm EDT. In the meantime, the US conducted strikes on Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran's crude exports are handled.

US benchmark WTI crude futures jumped 3.5% to more than $117 per barrel in intraday trading after the Kharg attacks. Reuters reported that prices paid for physical crude at European and Asian refineries have risen to record-high prices above $150 per barrel.

Near-term inflation expectations jumped in March to more than 3.4% over the next 12 months, according to the latest NY Fed survey. Consumers anticipate high prices for food and energy because of the US war on Iran.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields initially rose on the inflation expectations before retracing to slight losses on flights to safety. The dollar fell against major rivals, lifting gold by making it cheaper overseas.

China's central bank purchased gold for its currency reserves for the 17th straight month, keeping a floor under the gold price as some nations, such as Turkey, have resorted to liquidating bullion to offset higher oil prices because of the war.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.4% and 2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold added 39 cents, $4,657.10; silver shed 84 cents to $71.82; platinum lost $48 to $1,929.15; and palladium slid $29.50 to $1,461.55 an ounce.

4/6/2026: Gold gains on Trump war threats

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.1% to close near $4,657 as President Trump threatened to escalate the US war on Iran, driving oil prices higher and boosting alternative stores of value. Silver edged down 0.1% to finish at 72.66 an ounce.

In an expletive-laced Easter post on social media, Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's infrastructure, bridges, and power plants with bombardments, making Iranians "live in hell" if Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz by tomorrow.

Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 1.4% to more than $113 per barrel on the threats, which, if carried out, would curtail supply further and lead to severe global energy shock. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The ISM reported the US services sector slowed more than expected in March and the prices paid by companies for inputs surged to by the most in 13 years, primarily because of the war on Iran. Services employment dropped to the lowest level since late 2023. Around 70% of Americans are employed in services industries.

Separately, the New York Fed reported that pressure on supply chains rose in March to the highest level since early 2023, when Covid disruptions raised input prices and global inflation.

Limiting gold's gains, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3% as investors anticipate higher inflation because of the Iran war. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum added 0.7% while palladium dipped less than 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.30 to $4,556.80; silver slipped 7 cents to $72.66; platinum picked up $13.35 to $1,977.15; and palladium lost 35 cents to $1,491.05 an ounce.

4/2/2026: Markets and Metals fall following Trump’s address

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Optimism over the potential quick resolution to the war in Iran turn to pessimism following President Trump's address to the nation last night. President Trump said that while the war was “nearing completion” U.S. forces would hit Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” signaling a potential escalation of the ongoing conflict.

Following Trump’s address, the UAE intercepted nineteen ballistic missiles and twenty-six drones fired at them by Iran. Kuwait and Quatar were also fired upon by Iran. Assaults on the Iranian infrastructure by the US and Israel escalated.

Oil prices, which tumbled yesterday on hopes of a cease fire announcement, rebounded sharply higher overnight, driving global equities markets lower with gold and silver selling off in sympathy to equity markets.

Gold and silver gave up yesterday’s gains, dropping 2.6% and 4.0% respectively, while platinum edged slightly lower and palladium gained 1.5%.

The dollar gained thirty-six basis points to just over 100.00 on the US dollar index, helping to pressure gold. Yields on the 10-year US T-bill were sideways at 4.30%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $131.70 to $4,651.50; silver tumbled $3.13 to $72.73 platinum eased $5.50 to $1,963.80; and palladium gained $24.30 to $1,502.70 an ounce.

4/1/2026: Metals notch fourth day of gains

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Precious metals continued their winning streak higher from Friday with gold gaining another 2.8% at the New York market close. Silver rose 1.4% while platinum and palladium each gained another 1% of value. Unlike yesterday, Asian equity markets rose today, along with those in Europe and the US, as hopes reverberated around the world that a resolution to the conflict against Iran was indeed within reach.

President Trump is scheduled to make a televised address at 9 PM tonight and is expected to announce that US objectives against Iran have met or exceeded expectations, but military operations may continue for another two to three weeks.

The US dollar weakened against other currencies on the US dollar index, falling thirty-six basis points on the index to 99.61. The dollar is now down a full point from its peak of 100.61 two days ago, it’s highest level since May of 2025. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield also eased lower to 4.31%, down from its Mar. 27th peak of 4.44%, its highest level since July of 2025. A weaker dollar and lower yields support a rising gold price.

The crucial brent crude oil price tumbled $17 from yesterday’s peak closing price of $118.35 to close just under $101 per barrel today. This narrowed the spread sharply between the European price for brent crude oil and the US West Texas intermediate crude price which peaked at $102.88 two days ago, with WTIC trading just over $100 per barrel this afternoon.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $135.60 to $4,783.20; silver rose $1.17 to $75.86 platinum rose $19.30 to $1,969.30; and palladium gained $17.95 to $1,489.15 an ounce.