AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

10/22/2025: Gold extends slide ahead of CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending yesterday's price correction, New York spot gold slipped another 1.7% to finish under $4,045 as traders continued to take profits from Monday's all-time high of $4,336.40 ahead of this week's delayed release of the September CPI. Silver slid 1.7% to $47.46 an ounce.

After rallying more than 60% this year—and a whopping 20% since the Fed initiated a rate-cut cycle in late September—bullion fell 5% yesterday in what most analysts viewed as necessary correction, removing some speculative froth from a healthy bull market.

Sell-off momentum continued today, with investors recalibrating in advance of Friday's release of the consumer price index for September. Although delayed and missing some data components because of the government shutdown, the CPI is expected to provide additional clues to the Fed's upcoming rate moves.

While rekindled inflation from trade wars is certainly a concern for the Fed, jobs are perhaps a bigger worry after weak nonfarm payrolls reports over the summer. Layoffs remain low, but hiring has essentially dried up, leaving the labor market vulnerable to a sharp downturn.

Fed funds futures traders expect the central bank to step in, putting the odds of a quarter-point cut next week at 98%, followed by another in December. But sharply higher inflation could easily change that calculus.

Platinum and palladium slid 1% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $71.85 to $4,044.40; silver fell $1.19 to $47.46; platinum lost $15.95 to $1,536; and palladium retreated $21.85 to $1,418.25 an ounce.

10/21/2025: Gold tumbles on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 5% to close under $4,117 after upbeat earnings on Wall Street and optimism about trade with China spurred risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits from bullion's epic rally. Silver shed 4.8% to $48.65 an ounce.

Strong earnings from non-tech blue chips rekindled risk appetite, lifting the Dow 0.6% as corporate giants like GM, 3M, and Coca-Cola delivered stronger-than-expected profits. Tech shares didn’t share in the sentiment, despite the recent outperformance of AI-related companies.

So far this month, 87% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates. Aggregate Q3 earnings are projected to grow 9.2% year-on-year, according to LSEG data.

Adding to risk appetite, President Trump said he expects to achieve a "fair deal" with Chinese President Xi Jinping as negotiations proceed over tariffs and rare earth exports.

The dollar added 0.3% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Gold has risen 60% this year behind intensifying geopolitical and economic uncertainty, aggressive central bank purchases, strong Chinese demand, and global de-dollarization. Most analysts see today's correction as overdue to remove some of the speculative froth out of the market.

Platinum and palladium lost 5% and 4.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $220.20 to $4,116.25; silver shed $2.47 to $48.65; platinum dropped $82.95 to $1,551.95; and palladium retreated $69.40 to $1,440.10 an ounce.

10/20/2025: Gold jumps 3.5% on uncertainty

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded strongly, jumping 3.5% to close above $4,336, as rate-cut hopes and economic uncertainty spurred safe-haven inflows following last Friday's correction. Silver surged 2.4% to finish at $51.12 an ounce.

After reaching a new intraday record above $4,378 on Friday, gold pulled back under $4,242 by the session's close when President Trump said his additional 100% tariffs on China were "not sustainable."

But as today's aggressive rebound indicates, concerns about trade wars with China are not the only driver behind bullion's epic rally. After nearly three weeks, the US government shutdown appears no close to ending. Key economic data has been delayed, leaving investors struggling to make sense of markets that seem both fragile and overbought.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Fed will meet next week to set monetary policy in something of a data vacuum, without the latest information on inflation and the health of the labor market.

Against this backdrop, Fed funds futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at 99%, with another coming in December. Lower rates lift gold by lowering yields and weakening the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity costs for holding it and making it cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 2% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $146.50 to $4,336.40; silver climbed $1.26 to $51.12; platinum picked up $32.60 to $1,634.90; and palladium advance $28.60 to $1,509.55 an ounce.

10/17/2025: Gold scores 6.7% weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 1% to close under $4,242 on profit-taking after President Trump walked back his tariff threats against China, lifting equities, yields, and the dollar. Bullion still notched a weekly gain of 6.7%. Silver dropped 2.4% today but rose 5.8% this week to finish at $51.75.

After sparking new trade war worries by threatening additional 100% tariffs on China, Trump said today that this notion was "not sustainable" and he would meet with China's leader Xi Jinping over easing tensions and loosening restrictions on rare earth exports.

Wall Street applauded the de-escalation, with all three major US indexes adding 0.5%.

Benchmark 10-Year Treasury yields rose back above 4% as investors shifted from safety to risk. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive overseas.

Gold reached a succession of record highs above $4,200 this week on trade war worries, the US government shutdown, and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates when it meets next week.

In a note to clients, Bank of American strategists said gold could peak at $6,000 an ounce in 2026, while 30-year Treasury yields could drop below 4%. Bullion has already returned around 65% this year.

Platinum fell 7.6% for a weekly rise of less than 0.1%. Palladium dropped6.8% today but gained 2.3% this week.

At the New York Spot close: gold fell $38.55 to $4,241. 65; silver slid $1.25 to $51.75; platinum shed $132.60 to $1,602.30; and palladium lost $109 to $1,480.95 an ounce.

10/16/2025: Gold leaps above $4,280

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold leapt another 2.5% to close above $4,280, a new all-time high, as trade-war worries and soft US data stoked safe-haven demand, while a falling dollar boosted alternative assets. Silver surged 3.8% to finish at $53.02 an ounce.

Uncertainty surrounding global trade ratcheted higher today after US officials condemned Beijing for deepening restrictions on crucial rare earth exports, while China blamed the US for inflaming global tensions over supply chain disruptions. President Trump has recently threatened an additional 100% tariff on China imports, prompting tit-for-tat reactions.

Wall Street turned negative on deepening trade tensions and weaker performance by the financial sector, prompting investors to take shelter. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4% on flights to the perceived safety of US government debt.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell another 0.3% against major rivals for its third straight day of losses. A weaker buck boosts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Further weighing on risk appetite, the Fed's Beige Book reported stagnating economic activity in 9 of the Fed's 12 regions, with slower consumer spending and accelerating inflation.

Platinum and palladium rose 4% and 3.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $103.30 to $4,280.20; silver surged $1.95 to $53.02; platinum picked up $66.60 to $1,734.90; and palladium advanced $60 to $1,599.95 an ounce.

10/15/2025: Gold rallies on haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained nearly 1% to close at a fresh all-time high near $4,177 as the dollar sank further on rate-cut hopes while new trade war tensions stoked demand for safe havens. Silver jumped 1.5% to finish at $51.07 an ounce.

Speaking publicly for the last time before next week's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a decidedly dovish posture yesterday, describing the US job market as mired in "low-hiring, low-firing doldrums" while leaving the door open to two more rate cuts this year.

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 98% likelihood of a quarter-point cut next week, followed by a 100% expectation for another in December.

Meanwhile, President Trump is considering cutting all trade ties with China after it substantially increased controls on rate earth metals, threatening crucial global supply chains. The move by Beijing came in response to Trump's threat to raise tariffs on imports from China by another 100%.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals, including safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, as currency traders priced in the new trade war threats and upcoming rate cuts. A falling dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Gold has now advanced nearly 60% this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive central bank purchases, trade wars, and global de-dollarization.

Platinum and palladium rose 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.20 to $4,176.90; silver surged 76 cents to $51.07; platinum picked up $13.60 to $1,668.70; and palladium rose $8.05 to $1,539.75 an ounce.

10/14/2025: Gold closes at new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close at a new record high near $4,139 as renewed trade war worries drove safe-haven demand and the dollar fell on expectations of rate cuts from the Fed. Silver added 0.4% to finish at $50.31 an ounce.

President Trump has threatened China with additional duties of 100% atop of existing tariffs, rekindling trade-war concerns. The threat comes as new 25% tariffs take effect on upholstered furniture, bathroom vanities, and other items, and 10% duties on lumber and timber.

Meanwhile, in his last scheduled remarks before the Fed meets next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to two more rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, citing ongoing weakness in the labor market.

The dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals on expectations for lower interest rates. A falling dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped to just above 4%.

Gold has rallied nearly 58% to a succession of all-time highs this year behind safe-haven inflows driven by geopolitical upheaval, economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and. More recently, retail investment.

Platinum slid 0.9% while palladium rose 1.5%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $30.10 to $4,138.70; silver rose 18 cents to $50.31; platinum dipped $14.50 to $1,655.10; and palladium picked up $22.50 to $1,531.90 an ounce.

10/13/2025: Precious metals resume relentless rally

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — After taking a brief of pause to consolidate last Thursday and Friday, precious metals rallied with a vengeance in overnight Asian and London trading that continued in the New York session today. Gold gained 3.15%, silver added 3%, platinum surged almost 4%, while palladium rose 2.5%.

On Friday President Trump threatened China with new 100% tariffs in retaliation for China making rare earth minerals increasingly difficult to export from China. While Trump softened his rhetoric on China Monday, he had already lit the fuse under the market reopen on Sunday night. Today’s sharply higher moves for all four metals signaled the relentless rally is far from over.

At the New York spot close: gold charged $132.70 higher to $4,108.60; silver gained $1.20 higher to $51.13; platinum surged $68.90 to $1,669.60; and palladium rose $61.80 to $1,509.40.

10/10/2025: Gold Closes the week at over $4,000, silver over $50

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Precious metals prices steadied following yesterday’s wide market swings, driven by the dislocation of the silver market in London OTC trading. Gold, silver, and palladium regained ground from yesterday’s profit taking sell-off while platinum eased a bit further today. Gold and silver extended their gains in the electronic session with spot gold closing the week at $4,017 and silver over $50.05.

Stocks, on the other hand, tumbled after President Trump threatened to ratchet up tariffs on China over their withholding of rare earth mineral exports. At the close the DOW fell 878 points, the S&P 500 was down 182, and the NASDAQ tumbled 820.

Since the tariff trade war began earlier this year China has been the only country that has consistently stood up to the US with their own tit-for-tat US tariffs. China currently controls about 70% of the globes rare earth processing capabilities and they are using them as leverage in negotiations against US tariffs on China. President Trump threatened to cancel an upcoming meeting with President Xi of China at the APEC conference in South Korea in two weeks over this issue in his social media post today.

The US dollar index, which had been rising, fell .59 points to 98.59 and the 10-year US treasury skidded 0.075 to 4.07%.

At the New York spot close: gold rebounded $29.60 to $3,975.90; silver gained $0.08 higher to $48.93; platinum fell $33.40 to $1,600.70; and palladium gained $14.35 to $1,447.60.

10/9/2025: Silver breaks $50 before profit taking correction

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — After trading between $48.70 and $49.50 overnight, the silver spot price broke sharply higher in early New York trading to as high as $51.22, before a profit taking correction ensued engulfing all four precious metals. After ripping higher in seven of the last ten trading sessions, gold, silver, platinum and palladium were all ripe for a profit-taking pause and today was the day. At the New York close gold was down 2%, silver gained 0.5%, platinum fell 2.5% and palladium tumbled 1.5%.

Multiple forces led to today’s precious metals sell-off.

Silver went into a complete market dislocation in London this morning creating a full-on silver squeeze. The $1.75 surge in New York to new all-time highs for silver broke the increasingly dislocated London Over the Counter market for physical delivery.

First, the London Over the Counter market premium for physical silver above the New York December Comex price surged from 40 cents yesterday to $1.80 this morning. At the same time the overnight lease rate blew out from 25% yesterday to 100% today. These extreme changes in premium and financing costs, at levels several trading partners said they had never seen before in their careers, were characteristic of a complete lack of liquidity or a temporary breakdown in the London OTC market.

We described this as a lack of silver for immediate delivery in yesterday's update and today it reached critical mass when silver surged sharply in New York, breaking the ability of traders to hold existing positions, which led to a sharp silver market sell-off. Silver fell $3.07 from peak to trough, before recovering and closing modestly higher at the close of the New York session. Silver continued to gain modestly in the electronic session. Gold, platinum and palladium clawed back about one quarter of their New York session losses in after- hours electronic trading.

The dollar, which has been edging higher all week, gained 0.5% on the US dollar index, to 94.41, a level not seen since August. With no US economic news released by the US government due to the ongoing shutdown, no news was good news. Meanwhile the Euro and the Yen weakened against the dollar due to uncertainty over French politics and fears of new yen unfriendly policies in Japan from Japan's likely next premier Sanae Takaichi.

Finally, news of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza removed a little steam from their ongoing conflict, easing international tensions a bit.

At the New York spot close: gold tumbled $80.45 to $3,962.85; silver gained $0.19 higher to $48.84; platinum fell $43.90 to $1,634.10; and palladium shed $20.96 to $1,433.25.