Questions? Call 1-800-613-9323
BBB Logo
Free Shipping on Orders over $999
Home > Gold > Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


3/18/2024: Gold edges up ahead of Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold rose 0.1% to close at $2,164.30 despite upticks in yields and the dollar as traders brace for signals from the Fed about interest rates when it meets this week. Sharply higher oil helped to lift the gold price. Silver slipped 0.4% to $25.09 an ounce.

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at the meeting that begins tomorrow. But the markets are poised for any clues about the direction of policy in the accompanying statements, including an updated dot-plot forecast of how many rate cuts are likely this year.

Better-than-expected economic performance and sicky inflation during Q1 has markedly shifted the rate outlook. As many as six quarter-point cuts for 2024 were projected back in December, with the first coming March. Today, only three are expected, with the first coming no earlier than June.

And even June looks increasingly iffy, according to Fed fund futures traders. The odds of a June cut now stand at just 51%, down from as high as 73% less than two weeks ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a one-month high above 4.3%, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety. The dollar also edged up, adding 0.1% against major rivals and creating further headwinds for gold and other commodities by making them more expensive on other currencies.

But gold received support from ongoing geopolitical tensions, worries about returning inflation, and sharply higher oil prices. US benchmark WTI crude jumped 2.1% to a five-month high after Ukraine drone attacks disabled portions of Russia’s oil-supply infrastructure.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.4% and 4.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $2.80 to $2,164.30; silver slipped 11 cents to $25.09; platinum lost $22.30 to $921.20; and palladium retreated by $49 to $1,041.30 an ounce.


3/15/2024: Gold has first down week four

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold dipped 0.3% to close at $2,161.50 as a shifting outlook for rate cuts from the Fed lifted the dollar and yields, undercutting alternative stores of value. The gold price fell 0.8% this week to notch its first weekly loss in more than a month. Silver gained 1.3% to $25.20 today, on its way to a whopping 8% rally this week.

Import prices rose 0.3% in February after rising 0.8% the month before, adding to the upturn in US inflation. While prices on imported goods are still 0.8% lower than a year ago, the deflationary trend has notably reversed in recent months.

Coming after elevated CPI and PPI this week, the rising import-price data underlines the inconvenient truth that inflation is stickier than the Fed would like to see before cutting interest rates.

Against this background, March manufacturing activity tumbled deeply into contraction in the New York Fed region, falling to negative 20.9, where readings under zero signify deterioration. Often seen as a bellwether for national manufacturing, the Empire State index has been negative in five of the past six months.

Still, sticky inflation is causing Fed fund futures traders to shift their rate-cut expectations. The likelihood of a quarter-point reduction in June has fallen to 55%, down from more than 73% one week ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged up above 4.3%, the highest nearly a month. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals to post a weekly gain of 0.7%, its biggest since mid-January. A rising dollar weighs on gold by making it pricier overseas.

Platinum rose 0.8% today and 3.1% this week. Palladium added 1.1% for a weekly rise of 6.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $6 to $2,161.50; silver rose 33 cents to $25.20; platinum picked up $7.80 to $943.50; and palladium advanced $11.70 to $1,090.30 an ounce.


3/14/2024: Gold slides on strong PPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.6% to close at $2,167.50 after a strong PPI clouded the prospect for rate cuts from the Fed, boosting yields and the dollar while pressuring alternative assets. It was the second retreat in three sessions for the gold price following eight straight days of gains. Silver dipped 0.4% to $24.87 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.8% in February, beating forecasts, to lift the annual wholesale inflation rate to 1.6% from 1% in January. The core PPI, less food and energy, rose a more modest 0.4%.

Following an elevated CPI earlier in the week, the new PPI data show inflation trending in the wrong direction, something the Fed may note when it meets next week on monetary policy, perhaps revising its dot-plot forecast of rate cuts for this year.

Fed fund futures traders have decreased their bets on a quarter-point cut in June to 60%, from around 70% before this week’s inflation reports.

Mixed data added to the rate uncertainty. First-time jobless claims fell 1,000 to 209,000 last week, signaling ongoing strength in the labor market. But retail sales rebounded less than expected in February, and were revised lower in December and January, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending, the primary driver of GDP.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a one-week high above 4.2% after the PPI release, weighing on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar rose 0.5% against major rivals. A stronger dollar is a headwind for gold and other commodities because it makes them more expensive in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

Platinum dropped 1% while palladium rose 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $13.30 to $2,167.50; silver dropped 9 cents to $24.87; platinum shed $9.20 to $935.70; and p0alladium picked up $7.60 to $1,078.60 an ounce.


3/13/2024: Gold rebounds ahead of key data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold rebounded by 0.7% to close at $2,180.80 despite an uptick in Treasury yields as the dollar edged lower ahead of key economic data to be released later this week. The gold price has now risen in nine of the last ten sessions on safe-haven inflows and expectations of lower interest rates from the Fed. Silver rose 3.2% to close at $24.96 an ounce.

Yesterday’s release of the February CPI report showed consumer inflation inching up 0.1% to an annual rate of 3.2%. The slightly hotter-than-expected print provided a marginal lift to yields and the dollar as traders pondered its possible effect on the Fed’s pivot to lower interest rates. It also prompted some profit-taking from gold’s rise of $170 an ounce over the previous eight days.

Today, gold recouped much of yesterday’s slide as bargain-hunters swept in and the markets decided that the Fed is unlikely to delay rate cuts. Fed fund futures trading places the odds of a June rate cut at 67%, down slightly from 70% before the release.

Data on retail sales and wholesale inflation, due tomorrow, should provide further clues.

The dollar fell nearly 0.2%, reversing all its gains from Tuesday and lifting gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Also supporting the gold price, oil prices jumped nearly 3% on lower US crude inventories and reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Capping gold’s rebound, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to just under 4.2%. Rising yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium were also higher, gaining 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $14.70 to $2,180.80; si8lver added 77 cents to $24.96; platinum picked up $16.70 to $944.90; and -0alladium rose $20.40 to $1,071 an ounce.


3/12/2024: Gold slips on profit-taking, CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slipped 1% to close at $2,166.10 on profit-taking after a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI report boosted Treasury yields and dollar, pressuring alternative assets. The gold price had risen more than $170 over the previous eight sessions to a series of new record highs. Silver dropped 1.3% to 24.19 an ounce.

The consumer price index for February rose 0.4%, as forecast, while the annual rate ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1% in January. The core CPI, factoring out volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.4%, with the annual rate decreasing to 3.8% from 3.9% in January.

While year-on-year headline inflation was marginally higher in February, the markets had been bracing for an even hotter print, so the reaction among bond and currency traders was muted. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up a bit to 4.15% while the dollar picked up a meager 0.1% against major rivals.

Fed fund futures trading was little impacted, with the odds of an initial quarter-point rate cut in June remaining around 70%.

But traders took the occasion to take profits from gold’s stunning eight-day rally to a succession of new all-time highs.

Gold demand continues to be fueled by rate-cut expectations, ongoing geopolitical instability, aggressive bullion buying by central banks, and growing appetite for physical gold in China and India, the world’s leading cold-buying nations.

The other precious metals were mixed, with platinum dropping 1.3% while palladium picked up 0.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $22.50 to $2,166.10; silver slid 32 cents to $24.19; platinum fell $12.30 to $928.20; and palladium added $8.60, to $1,050.60 an ounce.


3/11/2024: Gold extends rally ahead of CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its record rally, gold edged up 0.1% to close at $2,188.60 despite small upticks in yields and the dollar as investors brace for tomorrow's release of the February CPI. The metal has now risen for eight straight sessions, adding more than $170 to the gold price. Silver rose 0.7% to close at $24.51.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept back over 4.1% on expectations that the consumer price index will come in a little hotter than it has in recent months, possibly shifting the narrative about interest rates once again.

Most economists project the CPI to rise 0.4% for February, the biggest increase since early fall, while the 12-month rate remains the same at 3.1%. The core rate, less food and energy, is seen slightly cooler at 0.3% for the month. Gas, transportation, and housing are the main drivers of the higher CPI forecasts.

Tracking with yield, the dollar also edged up as traders hedged against the possibility of hotter print.

Typically, rises in yields and the dollar create headwinds for gold. But recent momentum is carrying the metal, with traders feeling confident that a higher-than-expected CPI would be a blip and not derail the Fed from cutting interest rates in June. A much higher reading, though, could be a hawkish development.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been saying for a long time that the central bank is looking for a softer labor market before pivoting to monetary easing. While last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report boasted a solid headline number of 275,000 jobs added in February, the prior two months were revised lower by a whopping 167,000, and the annual unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, a two-year high.

Gold is also being supported by aggressive purchases by global central banks, strong physical demand in China and India, the world’s biggest gold buyers, and ongoing safe-haven bids because of rising geopolitical turmoil.

The other precious metals were also higher, with platinum and palladium picked up 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $3.10 to $2,188.60; silver added 17 cents, to $24.51; platinum picked up $25.70 to $940.50; and palladium climbed $16.70 to $1,040 an ounce.


3/8/2024: Gold scores best week since December

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold jumped 0.9% to close at $2,185.50, another record high, after a deceptively weak jobs report raised rate-cut expectations, pressuring yields and the dollar while lifting alternative assets. The metal posted a weekly rise of 4.3%, the biggest in five months.

The government’s nonfarm payrolls report showed 275,000 new jobs were added in February. But beneath that unexpectedly solid headline number, the details were much weaker.

Job gains for December and January were revised lower by 167,000, while the annual unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%, the highest in two years. Furthermore, wages increased by a scant 0.1%, suggesting that momentum in the labor market is dissipating.

Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the rise in unemployment should be seen as “increasing the probability that the Fed acts a little bit sooner than previously anticipated.”

Following the jobs report, the odds of a May rate cut rose to 30%, according to Fed fund futures trading. But June remains the most likely start at 73%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped under 4.1% on the rate view, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell 0.1% against major rivals on its way to a weekly loss of 1.2%, its biggest since mid-December. A weaker buck supports gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

The other precious metals were lower for the day but sharply higher for the week. Silver dipped 0.1% but still surged 5.1% this week. Platinum slid 0.9% for a weekly rise of 3%. Palladium shed 1.6% today but jumped 7.6% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.30 to $2,185.50; silver dipped 3 cents to $23.34; platinum slipped $8.60 to $914.80; and palladium lost $17.10 to $1,025.30 an ounce.


3/7/2024: Gold rallies on to new highs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold’s record rally continued unabated, adding another 0.3% to close at a fresh all-time high above $2,165 as yields and the dollar fell on growing expectations that the Fed will pivot to lower interest rates in Q2. Spot gold has now risen more than $132 an ounce over the past six sessions.

Testifying on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is “not far” from having the confidence in falling inflation to begin cutting interest rates.

Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Powell’s semi-dovish message, saying the Fed can begin cutting rates this year if the economy and inflation evolve as expected.

Fed fund futures traders increased their bets on a June rate cut, lifting the odds to 74%, up from 63% a week ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped again to just over 4.1% on the shifting rate view, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expense overseas.

The approaching pivot toward easier monetary policy is not the only factor driving gold. Central bank purchases have been robust for the past nine months as governments try to hedge against currency and geopolitical risk. Retail physical demand in China and India, which together account for 70% of global gold buying, has also been sharply higher, lifting the gold price.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and platinum adding 0.4% and 1%, respectively, while palladium slid 0.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $7 to $2,165.20; silver added a dime, to $24.37; platinum picked up $9 to $923.40; and palladium dropped $6.50 to $1,042.40 an ounce.


3/6/2024: Gold scores another record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its record rally, gold added another 0.8% to close at a new all-time high above $2,158 as yields and the dollar retreated after Jerome Powell signaled that lower interest rates are on the way. It was the metal’s fifth straight winning session.

Speaking to the House Financial Services Committee, Chair Powell said the Fed is on a “good path” to achieving its 2% target, with interest rates probably at their peak. Without committing to a timeline, Powell acknowledged that “it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint” later this year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to just over 4.1% as traders speculate that the first quarter-point rate cut will come in June. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dropped 0.3% against major rivals, including a one-month low versus the euro. A weaker dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

ADP said private payrolls added 140,000 jobs in February, fewer than forecast. The Fed’s Beige Book reported that growth picked up in most regions as inflation moderated, although consumer spending decreased.

The other precious metals were also sharply higher, with silver rising 2.1% while platinum picked up 3,1% and palladium surged an eye-popping 11.8% to breach $1,000 an ounce for the first time since January.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $16.30 to $2,158.20; silver rose 51 cents to $24.71; platinum climbed $27.20 to $914.40; and palladium leapt $110.30 to $1,048.90 an ounce.


3/5/2024: Gold closes at all-time high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained another 0.7% to close at an all-time high near $2,142 as a new round of soft US data undercut Treasury yields, boosting alternative stores of value. The metal has now risen 5.3% in the past four sessions.

The US services sector slowed more than expected in February, according to the ISM, but held above contraction for fifteenth straight month. Employment in services industries, which employ around two-thirds of Americans, contracted for the second time in three months.

Separately, US factory orders fell 3.6% in January, more than forecast, on fewer contracts for Boeing airliners. But durable goods orders plunged 6.2% and non-transportation factory orders fell 0.8%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back sharply, notching their biggest daily drop in more than a month, as traders increasingly anticipate a pivot to lower interest rates by the Fed. Falling yields lift gold by reducing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Moderating inflation and softer US data has shifted sentiment back toward the belief that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates by June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress this week should provide additional clues, as will the government's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Momentum in the gold price is also the result of strong physical buying in China and India, aggressive central bank purchases over the past eight months, and safe-haven demand because of increasing geopolitical instability.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver inching up slightly while platinum and palladium fell 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $15.60 to $2,141.90; silver added 2 cents, to $23.76; platinum slid $17.10 to $887.20; and palladium shed $26.30 to $938.60 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $2,157.67           Price Change Down Arrow $-7.35
Silver $25.08           Price Change Down Arrow $-0.14
Platinum $915.26           Price Change Down Arrow $-13.43
Palladium $1,040.77           Price Change Down Arrow $-30.33
In US Dollars