AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/14/2025: Gold falls, holds 2% weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.4% to close under $4,088, swept up in a broad market selloff driven by growing expectation that the Fed will not deliver a rate cut in December. Bullion still gained 2.2% for the week on safe-haven inflows driven by softer US data. Silver dropped 4.8% to finish at $50.59 an ounce for a weekly rise of 5.3%.

Citing stubborn inflation and a dearth of data because of the 43-day government shutdown, a phalanx of Fed officials pushed back this week on the prospect of new reductions in interest rates.

Odd of a December cut have fallen under 50%, according to Fed funds futures trading, from 66% earlier this week and near-certainty a month ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose further on the dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar rose 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, curtailing overseas demand.

Soft US data from non-government sources like ADP and Gold man Sachs showed the economy shedding jobs over the past month. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey reported consumer sentiment plummeting because of the government shutdown and softening labor market. Gold saw big gains over from flights to safety before correcting the past two sessions on hawkish Fed comments.

Platinum fell 1.7% but gained 0.5% for the week. Palladium dropped 3.7% today but rose 1.4% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $99.30 to $4,087.60; silver shed $2.49 to $50.59; platinum slid $26.20 to $1,551.05; and palladium retreated $54.95 to $1,420.70 an ounce.

11/13/2025: Gold slips on dimming rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.4% to close near $4,187 on profit-taking after Treasury yields rose on a dimming outlook for a December rate cut from the Fed. Silver dropped 0.5% to finish at $53.07 an ounce.

With the US government slowly reopening after the longest shut down in history, traders are bracing for the possibility that the resumption of data flows may show significantly higher inflation and prevent further easing of monetary policy.

Citing stubbornly higher inflation, some Fed officials have become vocal in opposition to a December rate cut. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said yesterday that she sees a "relatively high bar" for additional easing in the near term. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also expressed a preference for holding rates steady.

Meanwhile, some Fed officials who previously supported rate cuts are now on the fence. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said today that any decision on December is "premature." And Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said "mixed signals" from economy is changing his outlook.

Fed fund futures have dropped the probability of a quarter-point cut in December at less than 50%, down from 65% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.1% on the hawkish shift, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.2$ and 0.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $17.50 to $4,186.90; silver shed 26 cents to $53.07; platinum dropped $35.30 to $1,577.25; and palladium lost $5.30 to $1,470.35 an ounce.

11/12/2025: Gold rockets above $4,200

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rocketed 2.4% to close above $4,202 on expectations that the resumption of government data after the shutdown will show a substantially weaker economy, boosting the likelihood of further rate cuts from the Fed. Silver surged 5.4% to finish at $53.33 an ounce.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is scheduled to vote late today on an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The 42-day closure prevented the collection and release of crucial data on jobs and prices in October, which the White House says is permanently lost.

Instead, the Fed will have to wait for November releases from the BLS and other agencies to plan monetary policy ahead of its December meeting. Data from nongovernmental sources like ADP and Goldman Sachs have shown the sizable job losses in October. Official data, when it returns, is expected to reflect this weakening trend.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped under 4.1% on safe-haven inflows and expectations that the Fed will provide monetary easing to support the labor market. Lower yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Despite pulling back from October's all-time high above $4,380, gold has risen more than 55% this year behind tariff turmoil, geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization, and aggressive purchases by emerging market central banks.

Platinum and palladium gained 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold jumped $97.60 to $4,204.40; silver surged $2.71 to $53.33; platinum picked up $21.30 to $1,612.55; and palladium rose $17.10 to $1,475.65 an ounce.

11/11/2025: Gold dips on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.1% to close under $4,107 as the prospective reopening of the Federal government stoked risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits from bullion's strong recent rally. Silver rose 0.9% to finish at $50.62 an ounce.

The longest government shutdown in US history appears to be ending after a handful of moderate Democrat Senators opted to support their Republican colleagues on funding.

Wall Street cheered the breakthrough, with the Dow surging 1.2% to a new all-time high. Monies were pulled away from safe havens like gold, which had rallied nearly 5% over the previous four trading sessions because of the shutdown and weak US economic data.

Official reports on inflation and employment have been missing because of the shutdown and will take time to restore, leaving Fed policymakers somewhat in the dark as they plot the course of interest rates ahead of their December meeting.

But initial signs on the labor market are not good. ADP reported today that the private sector has shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week for the past month. A separate report from Goldman Sachs estimates that official government data will show 50,000 jobs were lost in October.

Backstopping gold's slide, the dollar lost 0.2% against major rivals on expectations that the weak jobs numbers will encourage the Fed to lower interest rates again in December. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Platinum and palladium added 0.1% and 2.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $5 to $4,106.80; silver rose 44 cents to $50.62; platinum picked up $1.50 to $1,591.25; and palladium climbed $30.90 to $1,459.55 an ounce.

11/10/2025: Gold surges to retake $4,100

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 2.8% to close near $4,112 as a possible end to the US government shutdown shifted attention toward soft US data and the likelihood of additional liquidity from the Fed. Silver rose 4.5% to finish at $50.18 an ounce.

A cadre of moderate Democrat Senators is apparently backing the Republican proposal to reopen the Federal government, ending the longest shut down in history. The reopening, which still requires approval from the Senatorial and President, will restore the data flow needed by the Fed to determine monetary policy.

Recent data, while limited, has reflected an economy that remains resilient but deteriorating. An estimate from the Chicago Federal Reserve showed the economy shed jobs in October. Losses in government and retailing were compounded by AI-driven layoffs.

Meanwhile, US factory output contracted in October for the eighth straight month, and consumer sentiment tumbled this month on worries about the government shutdown.

The Fed is expected to inject more money in the financial system to counter a liquidity drain during the shutdown, according to recent statements by New York Fed President John Williams. Increases in liquidity typically pressure the dollar, lifting gold.

The dollar fell slightly as the prospect of the government reopening boosted risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar.

Platinum and palladium rose 3% and 1.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $112.40 to $4,111.80; silver surged $2.16 to $50.18; platinum picked up $47.50 to $1,589.75; and palladium advanced $26.90 to $1,427.65 an ounce.

11/7/2025: Gold rises on shutdown worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close above $3,999 as soft consumer sentiment and worries about the government shutdown pressured the dollar and boosted demands for safe havens. Bullion ended the week 0.4% higher. Silver added 0.3% today and less than 0.1% this week to finish at $48.02 an ounce.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 50.3% in November, down from 53.6 in October, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about the record-long US government shutdown. It was the lowest reading since June 2022, itself an all-time low.

Pessimism about the economy was widespread with one exception: consumers with large holdings of equities. Sharply higher stock valuations driven largely by AI fervor have produced a wealth-effect among high-income consumers, while Americans without large stock portfolios feel the pinch of higher prices.

Year-ahead inflation expects rose to 4.7%, according to the survey. And with the government shutdown now the longest on record, surpassing the previous record from the first Trump administration, business and employment outlooks have become more unstable.

The dollar slipped 0.2% against major rivals, lifting gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum rose 0.9% but fell 2.2% this week. Palladium also added 0.9% but lost 3.1% for the week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $19.50 to $3,999.40; silver rose 13 cents to $48.03; platinum picked up $13.95 to $1,542.25; and palladium rose $12.60 to $1,400.75 an ounce.

11/6/2025: Gold Holds Firm Near $4,000

Source: Matt Warden, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Spot gold edged 0.4% higher to close near $3,996 an ounce, as renewed safe-haven buying and a softer dollar helped support the precious metals. Gold’s resilience around the $4,000 level reflects ongoing confidence in its long-term potential.

The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs as investors weighed the impact of the prolonged government shutdown and mixed economic data, enhancing gold’s appeal for non-U.S. buyers. Modest dollar weakness and persistent fiscal uncertainty continue to support demand for precious metals.

On the data front, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4% in October from 50.0% in September, signaling renewed expansion in the U.S. services sector and suggesting parts of the economy remain steady despite policy uncertainty. However, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 53.6 from 55.1, pointing to lingering consumer caution. Meanwhile, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index dropped to 43.9, and the Chicago Fed estimated that unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, highlighting a labor market that may be losing steam.

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy continue to shape market sentiment. With rates now likely to stay steady into early 2026, investors are positioning for eventual easing as inflation cools and growth softens. Any signs of dovish policy language from the Fed could reignite another leg of gold buying.

In the physical market, strong jewelry and investment demand from Asia, particularly during India’s ongoing wedding and festival season, added a firm layer of support. Central banks also continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing its role as a strategic reserve asset and lending credibility to the long-term bullish view.

At the New York spot close: gold rose $16.20 to $3,996.10 an ounce; silver gained 43¢ to $48.29; platinum added $9.65 to $1,570.40; and palladium advanced $16.05 to $1,447.30 an ounce.

11/5/2025: Gold gains on bargain-hunting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.8% to close above $3,980 on bargain-hunting after tepid jobs and economic data boosted safe-haven inflows despite slight increases in yields. Silver surged 1.5% to finish at $47.86 an ounce.

ADP reported that private payrolls added 42,000 jobs in October, with most of the increase centered in healthcare and transportation. While the gains were soft and narrow, they were welcome after two straight months of job losses, suggesting that the labor market might be stabilizing.

Because of the record-long government shutdown, the more-authoritative BLS data on nonfarm payrolls will not be available.

The ISM reported that the US services sector expanded modestly in October, with the survey rising to 52.4% from 50% in September, where anything under 50% signifies contraction. The employment index remained negative for the fifth straight month. Around 70% of Americans work in the services sector.

The data barely moved the needle on the likelihood of a December rate cut. Fed funds futures trades put the odds at 63%, down from 66% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked slightly higher, and the dollar was virtually flat.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.4% and 2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $32.60 to close at $3,980.30; silver rose 73 cents to $47.86; platinum picked up $21.20 to $1,560.75; and palladium advanced $27.40 to $1,431.25 an ounce.

11/4/2025: Gold falls on shifting rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.3% to close under $3,948 as the dollar continued to rally on a shifting Fed rate view, pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver shed 1.6% to finish at $47.13 an ounce.

Public statements by Federal Reserve officials this week underscored divisions within the central bank, suggesting that a December rate cut, recently considered a sure thing, could be postponed.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Smith, who voted against last week's rate cut, confirmed his view that inflation remains too high for further reductions. Similarly, Austan Goolsby of the Chicago Fed told Yahoo Finance that he was leery of further cuts while inflation remains above 2%.

Two non-voting members, Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed and Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, oppose additional cuts, and Atlanta's Raphael Bostic has stated his discomfort with lowering rates further.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Fed Governor Steven Miran, echoing President Trump, is strongly advocating for much deeper cuts, asserting that inflation is no longer an issue. And Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes the economy is too constrained at current interest rate levels.

All this follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell's warning last week that a December cut is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut next month at 64%, down from 92% last week. This week's release of the ADP private payrolls data will be scoured for further clues about the Fed's possible direction.

The dollar extended its rally on the shifting rate view, adding another 0.3% against major rivals and hitting a four-month high against the euro. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.8% and 3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $52.60 to $3,947.70; silver shed 76 cents to $41.13; platinum dropped $28.60 to $1,539.95; and palladium retreated $43.20 to $1,403.85 an ounce.

11/3/2025: Gold reclaims $4,000 an ounce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close above $4,000 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders weighed fallout from the government shutdown and sifted for clues about further rate cuts from the Fed. Silver slipped 0.2% to finish at $47.89 an ounce.

US factory output contracted in October for the eighth straight month, with the ISM manufacturing survey falling to 48.7%, where anything under 50% signifies contraction. Industry executives cited the high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration as the leading cause of manufacturing weakness.

With the government shutdown stretching on, economists anticipate that consumer spending, the primary prop of the economy, may begin to weaken as the holiday season begins. Mid and lower income families are especially vulnerable to the potential loss of federal food benefits and healthcare subsidies.

Without employment data available from the BLS because of the shutdown, traders will focus on the ADP private payrolls numbers this week for indications of labor market health.

Following last week's quarter-point rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the case for another one in December has weakened along with the employment outlook. Fed funds futures traders are pricing-in a 63% chance, down from 93% before Powell's remarks.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched above 4.1% on the shifting rate outlook, capping gold's rise by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar inched up 0.1% against major rivals and hit a three-month high against the euro. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum dropped 0.7% while palladium added 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.10 to $4,000.30 an ounce; silver sipped 11 cents to $47.89; platinum shed $10.40 to $1,568.55; and palladium picked up $1.30 to $1,446.05 an ounce.