AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/6/2025: Gold Holds Firm Near $4,000

Source: Matt Warden, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Spot gold edged 0.4% higher to close near $3,996 an ounce, as renewed safe-haven buying and a softer dollar helped support the precious metals. Gold’s resilience around the $4,000 level reflects ongoing confidence in its long-term potential.

The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs as investors weighed the impact of the prolonged government shutdown and mixed economic data, enhancing gold’s appeal for non-U.S. buyers. Modest dollar weakness and persistent fiscal uncertainty continue to support demand for precious metals.

On the data front, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4% in October from 50.0% in September, signaling renewed expansion in the U.S. services sector and suggesting parts of the economy remain steady despite policy uncertainty. However, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 53.6 from 55.1, pointing to lingering consumer caution. Meanwhile, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index dropped to 43.9, and the Chicago Fed estimated that unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, highlighting a labor market that may be losing steam.

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy continue to shape market sentiment. With rates now likely to stay steady into early 2026, investors are positioning for eventual easing as inflation cools and growth softens. Any signs of dovish policy language from the Fed could reignite another leg of gold buying.

In the physical market, strong jewelry and investment demand from Asia, particularly during India’s ongoing wedding and festival season, added a firm layer of support. Central banks also continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing its role as a strategic reserve asset and lending credibility to the long-term bullish view.

At the New York spot close: gold rose $16.20 to $3,996.10 an ounce; silver gained 43¢ to $48.29; platinum added $9.65 to $1,570.40; and palladium advanced $16.05 to $1,447.30 an ounce.

11/5/2025: Gold gains on bargain-hunting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.8% to close above $3,980 on bargain-hunting after tepid jobs and economic data boosted safe-haven inflows despite slight increases in yields. Silver surged 1.5% to finish at $47.86 an ounce.

ADP reported that private payrolls added 42,000 jobs in October, with most of the increase centered in healthcare and transportation. While the gains were soft and narrow, they were welcome after two straight months of job losses, suggesting that the labor market might be stabilizing.

Because of the record-long government shutdown, the more-authoritative BLS data on nonfarm payrolls will not be available.

The ISM reported that the US services sector expanded modestly in October, with the survey rising to 52.4% from 50% in September, where anything under 50% signifies contraction. The employment index remained negative for the fifth straight month. Around 70% of Americans work in the services sector.

The data barely moved the needle on the likelihood of a December rate cut. Fed funds futures trades put the odds at 63%, down from 66% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked slightly higher, and the dollar was virtually flat.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.4% and 2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $32.60 to close at $3,980.30; silver rose 73 cents to $47.86; platinum picked up $21.20 to $1,560.75; and palladium advanced $27.40 to $1,431.25 an ounce.

11/4/2025: Gold falls on shifting rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.3% to close under $3,948 as the dollar continued to rally on a shifting Fed rate view, pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver shed 1.6% to finish at $47.13 an ounce.

Public statements by Federal Reserve officials this week underscored divisions within the central bank, suggesting that a December rate cut, recently considered a sure thing, could be postponed.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Smith, who voted against last week's rate cut, confirmed his view that inflation remains too high for further reductions. Similarly, Austan Goolsby of the Chicago Fed told Yahoo Finance that he was leery of further cuts while inflation remains above 2%.

Two non-voting members, Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed and Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, oppose additional cuts, and Atlanta's Raphael Bostic has stated his discomfort with lowering rates further.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Fed Governor Steven Miran, echoing President Trump, is strongly advocating for much deeper cuts, asserting that inflation is no longer an issue. And Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes the economy is too constrained at current interest rate levels.

All this follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell's warning last week that a December cut is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut next month at 64%, down from 92% last week. This week's release of the ADP private payrolls data will be scoured for further clues about the Fed's possible direction.

The dollar extended its rally on the shifting rate view, adding another 0.3% against major rivals and hitting a four-month high against the euro. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.8% and 3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $52.60 to $3,947.70; silver shed 76 cents to $41.13; platinum dropped $28.60 to $1,539.95; and palladium retreated $43.20 to $1,403.85 an ounce.

11/3/2025: Gold reclaims $4,000 an ounce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close above $4,000 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders weighed fallout from the government shutdown and sifted for clues about further rate cuts from the Fed. Silver slipped 0.2% to finish at $47.89 an ounce.

US factory output contracted in October for the eighth straight month, with the ISM manufacturing survey falling to 48.7%, where anything under 50% signifies contraction. Industry executives cited the high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration as the leading cause of manufacturing weakness.

With the government shutdown stretching on, economists anticipate that consumer spending, the primary prop of the economy, may begin to weaken as the holiday season begins. Mid and lower income families are especially vulnerable to the potential loss of federal food benefits and healthcare subsidies.

Without employment data available from the BLS because of the shutdown, traders will focus on the ADP private payrolls numbers this week for indications of labor market health.

Following last week's quarter-point rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the case for another one in December has weakened along with the employment outlook. Fed funds futures traders are pricing-in a 63% chance, down from 93% before Powell's remarks.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched above 4.1% on the shifting rate outlook, capping gold's rise by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar inched up 0.1% against major rivals and hit a three-month high against the euro. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum dropped 0.7% while palladium added 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.10 to $4,000.30 an ounce; silver sipped 11 cents to $47.89; platinum shed $10.40 to $1,568.55; and palladium picked up $1.30 to $1,446.05 an ounce.

10/31/2025: Gold notches 4% October gain

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.6% to close under $3,983 as the dollar climbed to a three-month high on a hawkish rate view from the Fed. Bullion still gained 4% in October for its third straight monthly rise. Silver fell 1.6% to finish at $47.21, posting a monthly rise of 1.7%.

Jeff Schmidt of the Kansas City Fed and Beth Hammock of the Cleveland Dallas Fed publicly outlined their reasons for dissenting against this week's rate cut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated today that she “did not see a need to cut rates this week.” All three Fed officials pointed to rising inflation as the main reason.

The vocal opposition to the Fed's October cut comes two days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, in post-meeting remarks on Wednesday, that another rate cut in December is "is not a foregone conclusion."

Fed fund futures traders now put the odds of a quarter-point cut in December at 60%, down from 92% earlier this week.

The dollar rose 0.3% to reach a three-month high on the shifting rate view. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, curtailing demand overseas.

Despite an 8% pullback from its recent all-time high above $4,336, gold is up 50% this year behind geopolitical tension, simmering trade wars, and aggressive purchases by central banks.

Platinum fell 2.1% today and 3.1% this month. Palladium shed 0.4% for a monthly decline of 11.5%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $23.35 to $3,982.20; silver shed 76 cents to $47.99; platinum dropped 33.65 to $1,576.15; and palladium dipped %.80 to $1,444.75 an ounce.

10/30/2025: Gold rises after China trade deal

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close above $4,005 despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar after the trade deal between US and China delivered modest outcomes and lingering uncertainty. Silver rose 1.7% to finish at $48.75 an ounce.

The highly anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi established a one-year agreement in which China would resume soybean purchases and delay restrictions of rare earth exports, while the US would not impose additional 100% tariffs and reduce existing tariffs to 47% from 57%.

While the deal did nothing to amplify trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies, it also did little to create a long-term framework of cooperation.

Gold rose on the prospect of continuing uncertainty. Rare earths are crucial for advanced tech applications like semiconductors and smart phones. China holds a virtually monopoly on them, leaving the US and US tech firms at a major structural disadvantage.

Limiting gold's rise, the dollar rallied 0.3% to a three-month high after Jerome Powell cast doubt on a December rate cut after yesterday's Fed meeting, saying it was "by no means a done deal." Fed funds futures traders lowered the odds to 60% from 92% before the remarks.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold by making it more expensive in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rose on the hawkish outlook, pushing back up to nearly 4.1%. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium added 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $26.90 to $4,005.55; silver rose 82 cents to $48.75; platinum picked up $18.30 to $1,609.75; and palladium advanced $33.20 to $1,450.55 an ounce.

10/29/2025: Gold gains on lower rates

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $3,978 despite upticks in yields and the dollar after the Fed reduced interest rates and President Trump announced a likely trade deal with South Korea. Silver surged 1.7% to finish at $47.93 an ounce.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The decision was unanimous except for two dissenters, one seeking deeper cuts and one advocating no cuts at all.

In his post-meeting remarks, Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated that downside risks to the labor market currently outweigh the risks of higher inflation, suggesting additional cuts may come this year. However, he emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion."

Fed fund futures traders reduced the odds of a quarter-point cut in December to 69% from 91% before Powell's remarks.

The dollar added 0.1% against major rivals, limiting gold's rise by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4%. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

President Trump said he is finalizing a trade deal that will lower tariffs on South Korean imports in exchange for cash payments and investments by South Korea into the US economy. He also sounded an optimistic note on his upcoming meeting with China's Xi Jinping.

Platinum inched up less than 0.1% and palladium picked up 0.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.45 to $3,978.65; silver surged 80 cents to $47.93; platinum added 40 cents, to $1,591.45; and palladium rose $12 to $1,417.35 an ounce.

10/28/2025: Gold slides for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its pullback to a third session, New York spot gold slid 0.9% to close near $3,966 as appetite for safe havens was suppressed by hopes for a trade deal between the US and China. Silver gained 0.8% to finish at $47.13 an ounce.

President Trump and China's President Xi are scheduled to meet on Thursday to discuss ways to end trade tensions. Over the weekend, top US and China economic officials reportedly finalized a framework that could prevent additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and reduce restrictions on crucial rare earth exports from China, among other things.

Wall Street cheered the prospect for a second session, pushing global shares into record territory. The Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5% while the Nasdaq gained 1%.

The whetted risk appetite came despite soft US data. The Conference Board reported consumer confident fell to a six-month low as Americans fret about the job market. In its new weekly reporting format, ADP said private payrolls grew an average of 14,250 per week over the past month, which translates to a modest monthly increase of just 57,000 jobs.

Still, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to nearly 4% as investors shifted out of safe havens. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar dipped 0.1% ahead of tomorrow's conclusion of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy, which is almost universally expected to produce another quarter-point rate cut. Lower rates pressure the dollar and lift gold.

Despite its recent correction, gold has risen more than 51% this year behind geopolitical turmoil, US fiscal instability, global shifts away from the dollar, and aggressive central bank purchases. These drivers are expected to continue well into the new year and beyond.

Platinum added 0.8% while palladium subtracted 0.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $35.70 to $3,966.20; silver rose 36 cents to $47.13; platinum picked up $12.5 to $1,590.85; and palladium slipped $8.30 to $1,405.35 an ounce.

10/27/2025: Gold falls on China trade hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.8% to close under $4,002 as the prospect of a trade deal between the US and China stoked risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Silver shed 3.8% to finish at $46.56 an ounce.

President Trump said today that a trade deal with China "is virtually done and should be well-received by the markets." While no details have been forthcoming, the framework is expected to prevent the additional 100% tariffs Trump threatened recently and the restriction in rare-earth exports signaled by China, in addition to other changes.

The President meets with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday to further discuss a trade accord.

All three major US stock indexes rallied on optimism that a damaging new phase in the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be prevented. The Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.7%.

While some of the trade-anxiety premium has drained from the gold price since it hit an all-time high above $4,336 last week, bullion remains supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive central bank buying, and expectations of rate cuts from the Fed when it meets this week.

Platinum and palladium dropped 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York close: gold fell $116.50 to $4,001,90; silver shed $1,82 to $46.56; platinum dropped $29.45 to $1,578.40; and palladium lost $24.10 to $1,413.65 an ounce.

10/24/2025: Gold dips on CPI, risk appetite

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% to close under $4,119 after softer-than-expected consumer inflation and other upbeat US economic data boosted risk appetite, pressuring safe-haven assets. Bullion slipped 2.9% for the week after nine straight weekly climbs as investors took profits from all-time high prices. Silver slid 1.6% to $48.38, ending the week with a loss of 1.6%.

The Consumer Price Index for September rose 0.3%, pulling the 12-month inflation rate down to 3% from 3.1% in August. Lower prices for travel and hospitality helped to offset tariff-driven higher prices on imports, appliances, furniture, and other goods.

The soft CPI all but guarantees a rate cut from the Fed when it meets next week, followed by another in December.

Separately, S&P flash PMI surveys showed the US serves sector growing by the most in three months, while manufacturing also expanded at a slower pace. But high tariffs are hurting exports, according to the survey, and business sentiment for the upcoming year has deteriorated.

Wall Street cheered the upbeat data and prospect of lower interest rates, with all three major US stock indexes rising more than 1%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar were little changed.

Gold reached a new all-time above $3,336 on Monday as $4,336, as rate-cut hopes and economic uncertainty spurred safe-haven inflows. But it tumbled 5% on Tuesday after upbeat earnings on Wall Street and optimism about trade with China spurred risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits.

Platinum rose 1.3% today and 0.4% this week, while palladium fell 1.2% for a weekly loss of 2.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $7.10 to $4,118.40; silver slid 11 cents to $48.38; platinum picked up $20.75 to $1,608.35; and palladium shed $17.20 to $1,437.75 an ounce.