AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

12/4/2025: Gold rises ahead of PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $4,212 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors bet on another rate cut from the Fed. Silver retreated 1.8% to finish at $56,85 an ounce.

Running counter to a recent slew of negative employment data, new jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 last week to 191,000, the lowest level since 2022. The number of people collecting ongoing benefits edged down slightly to 1.94 million but hovered near a post-pandemic high.

Earlier this week, ADP reported 33,000 jobs were lost last month in the private sector, marking the third month out of the past four in which the economy shed jobs. Other sources like ISM surveys and Beige Book reports indicated frozen hiring. But layoffs remain relatively muted, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labor market.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up on the news, limiting gold's gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders foresee an 87% likelihood that the Fed will reduce rates by a quarter-point when it meets next week. Tomorrow's release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures index, delayed by the government shutdown, should give a clearer sense of the Fed's plans.

Unless the PCE shows much higher inflation than expected in September, the dovish voices on the FOMC are likely to hold sway, given the recent emphasis by key Fed officials supporting the labor market.

Lower rates are typically bullish for gold because they reduce bond yields and weaken the dollar. A falling dollar makes gold and other commodities less expensive on other currencies, lifting demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.50 to $2,11.80; silver shed $1.07 to $56.85; platinum dipped $7 to $1,651.15; and palladium lot $24.90 to $1,451.90 an ounce.

12/3/2025: Gold gains on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close above $4,199 after soft private-payrolls data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates when it meets next week. Silver inched down 0.1% on profit-taking to finish at $57.92 after reaching a new all-time high of $58.94 earlier in the session.

ADP reported that private payrolls cut 32,000 jobs in November, marking the third contraction in four months. It was the biggest decline since spring 2023. Forecasts had expected a gain of 40,000 jobs.

The ADP data is just the latest in a string of reports indicating a broad-based weakness in the US economy. Manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and the Fed's Beige Book have all pointed toward slowdown in recent weeks.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again at its final meeting of the year. Fed funds futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut at nearly 90%.

A series of Fed members including Fed Chair Powell have indicated that the health of the labor market has become their main concern. But Friday's release of the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, could change the calculus on rate cuts if it comes in sharply higher.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.5% against major rivals led by the euro, which rallied on upbeat data about business activity in the eurozone. A falling dollar boosts gold by and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.70 to $4,199.30; silver dipped 6 cents to $57.92; platinum picked up $24.80; and palladium rose $13.45 to $1,476.80 an ounce.

12/2/2025: Gold slides on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 1.3% to close under $4,187 as traders took profits from yesterday's six-week high ahead of important data releases later this week. Silver slid 0.8% to $57.98 an ounce.

Recent data on manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and job growth have indicated an economy slowing under the combined weight of high tariffs, rising inflation, the longest US government shutdown in history, and uncertainty over economic policies.

Traders have up the odds of December rate cut from the Fed to nearly 90% from virtually nonexistent just weeks ago. In addition, another cut in January now has better than a 50/50 chance, according to CME FedWatch.

Gold rose to a six-week high yesterday behind this dovish rate view as the dollar and Treasury retreated. Today these trades reversed themselves, with the dollar and yields bouncing slightly higher while gold retreated in a bout of profit-taking.

Releases this week of the November ADP private payrolls report and the crucial Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will go far toward establishing whether the Fed will, in fact, reduce rates again.

Gold has been strongly supported this year by aggressive purchases by global central banks. This trend appears to be accelerating. Central banks bought 53 tons of gold in October, up 36% month-on-month, according to the World Gold Council.

Platinum fell 1.8% while palladium rose 1.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold slid %52.70 to $4,186.90; silver shed 44 cents to $57.98; platinum dropped $29.70 to $1,633.35; and palladium picked up $18.60 to $1,463.35 an ounce.

12/1/2025: Gold rises to 6-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.5% to close at a six-week above $4,239 as rate-cut bets and weak US economic data pressured the dollar, boosting alternative stores of value. Silver surged 3.5% behind tight global supplies, hitting a new all-time high above $58.20 before finishing at $58.42 an ounce.

US manufacturing shrank for the ninth straight month in November, with the ISM manufacturing index falling to a four-month low of 48.2%, where anything under 50% indicates contraction. The high costs from tariffs and rising global uncertainty, combined with the protracted government shutdown, pushed new orders close to a 15-year low.

In recent weeks, a softening job market and plunging consumer sentiment have prompted a growing number of Fed officials to signal their openness to additional rate cuts despite stubbornly high inflation.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut in December at nearly 90%, with a similar cut in January at nearly 60%.

Adding to the dovish outlook, Kevin Hassett appears increasingly likely to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair this spring. President Trump, who has aggressively pressured the Fed to slash rates, said today that he is 70% certain of Powell's replacement. Hassett has loyally supported all of Trump's positions on trade and other economic issues.

The dollar slipped 0.2% on the rate outlook, boosting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium fell 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $21 to $4,230.30; silver surged $1.97 to $58.42; platinum lost $14.70 to $1,663.05; and palladium dropped $23.75 to $1,444.75 an ounce.

11/26/2025: Gold rallies to one-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 0.9% to close at a one-week high near $4,167 as Treasury yields and the dollar weakened on expectations that the Fed will continue monetary easing in coming months. Bullion has added almost 2% in the past four sessions. Silver surged 4.7% to finish at $3.31 an ounce.

Following a wave of soft economic data and commentary dovish commentary from key Fed officials over the past week, the markets extended bets that the Fed will reduce interest rates at its December meeting and follow with another rate cut in January.

The dovish rate view is reinforced by growing expectations that Kevin Hassett, current head of the Trump Administration's Economic Advisory Committee, will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in 2026. A Trump loyalist, Hassert is anticipated to support much lower interest rates, like the President.

Fed fund funds futures traders put the odds of another quarter-point reduction in 2026 at around 90%, with a similar cut in January at around 60%. Falling rates boost gold, a non-yielding asset, by pressuring Treasury yields and weakening the dollar.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped under 4% and the dollar dipped 0.1% against major rivals.

Deutsche Bank upgraded its gold forecasts to $4,500 an ounce in 2026 and $5,150 in 2027, citing concerns about inflation, fiat currency debasement, and the world’s unsustainable debt spiral.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $36.60 to $4,16.75; silver surged $2.38 to $53.31; platinum picked up $33.30 to $1,585.05; and palladium added $32,20, to $1,429.15 an ounce.

11/25/2025: Gold rise on data, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.9% to close above $4,130 after mixed data reinforced rate-cut expectations and the emergence of a dovish candidate for Fed Chair pressured yields and the dollar. Silver rose 1.3% to finish at $50.93 an ounce.

Mixed data delayed by the government shutdown showed retail sales rising just 0.2% in September, half of expectations and one-third of the increase in August. Meanwhile, the September PPI showed wholesale inflation rising 2.7% over the prior 12 months, matching August.

Current data from the Conference Board indicates consumer sentiment fell sharply this month to near pandemic lows on concerns about tariffs, prices, and a stagnant job market.

The net-negative data reinforced views that the Fed will reduce interest rates by another quarter-point when it meets next month, and perhaps again in January. Fed fund futures traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a December cut, followed by a 60% chance of another in January.

In addition, Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell's term expires next spring. The White House National Economic Council Director is a close ally of President Trump's and would likely pursue Trump's preference for drastically lower interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to just above 4% on the dovish near- and longer-term prospects for rates, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yield, the dollar lost 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum climbed 0.4% while palladium slid 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.25 to $4,130.15; silver rose 64 cents to $50.93; platinum picked up $5.5 to $1,551.75; and palladium shed $6.15 to $1,396.95 an ounce.

11/24/2025: Gold rises on Fed comments

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close near $4,092 as Treasury yields and the dollar ticked lower on growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. Silver added 0.8% to finish at $50.30 an ounce.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today that weakness in the labor market is enough to warrant another rate cut this year. His comments follow those of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.

While several other Fed officials are unconvinced of the need for further easing, citing stubborn inflation, three of the most influential voices—Powell, Williams, and Waller—are unified in putting full employment above price stability as the most pressing Fed priority right now.

Fed fund futures raised the probability of a quarter-point cut in December to 81%, up from 71% yesterday and 42% a week ago.

The dollar and 10-year Treasury yields both edged lower on the dovish rate view. A weaker buck makes gold less expensive overseas, while lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium rose 15% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $15.20 to $4,091.90; silver rose 42 cents to $50.30; platinum picked up $23.30 to $1,546.25; and palladium added $10.05, to $1,401.10 an ounce.

11/21/2025: Gold gains on dovish Fed view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close near $4,077 after soft US data and dovish comments from an influential Fed official increased optimism for a December rate cut. Bullion still slipped 0.3% for the week. Silver fell 0.7% to finish at $49.87 for a weekly decline of 1.4%.

The final version of University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell in November to one of the lowest readings ever recorded. Americans grew increasingly pessimistic about the personal finances and frustrated with high prices driven by tariffs.

Separately, US factory activity fell to a four-month low as tariffs raised prices and limited demand. But the services sector expanded slightly, and service-related businesses expressed confidence in improving conditions, according to the S&P PMI survey.

Against this backdrop, New York Fed President John Williams said today the centra bank could cut interest further in the near term without damaging its inflation goals. Williams is almost always aligned with Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed Chair, too, may support a December rate cut.

Fed funds futures traders immediately raised the likelihood of a quarter-point cut next month to 73%, up from 35% before Williams' comments.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on the shifting rate view, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of for bonds for safety.

Platinum picked up 0.2% but lost 1.9% for the week. Palladium added 0.3% today but subtracted 2% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.20 to $4,076.70; silver shed 37 cents to $49.87; platinum picked up $2.90 to $1,522.75; and palladium added $4.20, to $1,393.05 an ounce.

11/20/2025: Gold slips on mixed jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $4,057 after mixed jobs data pressured Treasury yields and the dollar while lifting the odds of a Fed rate cut in December. Silver fell 1.1% to $50.25 an ounce.

After a long delay caused by the government shutdown, the nonfarm payrolls report for October showed the economy adding 119,000 jobs in September, more than double forecasts. The increase came after two straight months of negative job growth, suggesting a possible stabilization in the labor market.

But the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level in nearly four years. And the staleness of the data, combined with the loss of October and November statistics because of the shutdown, leaves the Fed somewhat blind ahead of its December meeting.

The minutes from the October meeting released yesterday showed a committee deeply divided over further rate cuts, weighing higher inflation against the apparent fragility of the labor market. What's more, over the past week a series of officials have thrown cold water on the idea of further easing.

Nonetheless, the rising unemployment rate spurred Fed funds futures traders to raise the likelihood of another quarter-point reduction in December to 40%, up from 30% yesterday, according to CME FedWatch.

The crosscurrents of rate-view uncertainty caught gold today, with the suggestion of a stronger labor market and hawkish Fed jawboning being enough to prompt traders to take profits from its record rally despite slight downticks in the dollar and yields, two influences that usually support the gold price.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $21.20 to $4,056.20; silver shed 54 cents to $50.25; platinum dropped $27.05 to $1,519.85; and palladium lost $13.25 to $1,388.85 an ounce.

11/19/2025: Precious metals consolidation continues

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were whipsawed overnight and in New York trading as precious metals continue to consolidate recent big gains and seek firm support and resistance levels at higher price levels. All four metals were sharply higher in overnight trading before selling off in the New York session.

Gold is finding support at $3,950 and resistance at $4,200. Silver, which traded as low as $46.00 three weeks ago, has seen rising support coming in at $48.00 and again at $50.00, with resistance at $54.00. Platinum has been trading in a tight $1,500 to $1,650 range while palladium has become range bound between $1,380 and $1,525.

The BLS announced today there would be no employment data released for October due to insufficient data collection. The November employment report will be released Dec. 16, two weeks later than normal for the month. This means when the Fed meets for their final meeting of the year Dec. 9 and 10, they will not have any recent US employment data available to them.

Fed minutes from the Oct. meeting, released today, indicated Fed officials are divided on whether to cut rates another twenty-five basis points at their Dec. meeting with “many” Fed officials indicating holding rates at current levels would be appropriate.

At the New York spot close; gold gained $16.40 to $4,077.70; silver rose 34 cents to $50.79; platinum edged up $1.20 to $1,546.90; and palladium shed $19.57 to $1,394.34 an ounce.