AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

5/5/2025: Gold rallies on new tariff worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 2.4% to close above $3,311 on safe-haven inflows after President Trump's latest tariff salvo prompted renewed concerns about global trade wars ahead of the Fed's meeting on interest rates. Silver rose 0.7% to finish at $32.21 an ounce.

Over the weekend, Trump announced a new tariff of 100% on films "made in foreign lands." While its details and enforceability are foggy, this new trade edict caused investors to brace for additional turmoil, shifting back toward gold and silver after last week's corrections lower.

Meanwhile, the Fed begins a policy meeting this week amidst uncertainty over how these aggressive new trade policies will affect the US economy. While no changes in interest rates are expected, the markets will be attuned to changes in the accompanying policy statement for clues about future direction.

The ISM said today that the services sector edged slightly higher in April, while the prices paid by businesses for materials and services accelerated to the highest level in more than two years.

The dollar slipped 0.2%, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum and palladium slipped 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $79.40 to $3,311.30; silver rose 22 cents to $32.21; platinum slipped $2.75 to $960.15; and palladium lost $8.85 to $945.60 an ounce.

5/2/2025: Gold rises on dollar weakness

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.7% to close near $3,232 as the dollar weakened and bargain-hunters swept in after yesterday's 2.9% tumble. Today's gains came despite upbeat payrolls data and easing trade tensions that lifted equities and Treasury yields. Bullion still lost 1.5% for the week. Silver slid 0.6% to $31.99, notching a weekly loss of 3.1%.

US nonfarm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, more than expected, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The data suggest that the economy and labor market remain resilient despite a contraction of 0.3% in GDP for the first quarter.

Wall Street surged on the strong jobs report, with all three major US indexes picking up more than 1.5%. Adding to risk appetite, China said it is "evaluating" an offer from the White House to hold talks on tariffs.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3% as traders shifted away from safe-haven assets. Higher yields typically present a headwind for gold because they increase the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals as cautious optimism about US-China trade talks lessened demand for safe-haven currencies. A falling dollar supports gold by making it cheaper overseas.

Platinum slipped 0.2% today and 0.6% this week. Palladium picked up 0.5% but held a weekly loss of 0.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $21.90 to $3,231.90; silver slipped 20 cents to $962.90; platinum dipped $1.90 to $962.90; and palladium added $4.85, to $953.75 an ounce.

5/1/2025: Gold down on easing trade tensions

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.9% to close at $3,210 after hints from the White House about possible trade deals lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, eroding demand for alternative stores of value. Silver slid 1% to finish at $32.19 an ounce.

President Trump said today that trade deals might be reached with Japan, South Korea, and India, and that there is a "very good chance" of an agreement with China.

All three main US stock indexes rose to one-month highs, fueled by trade war optimism and higher-than-expected quarterly earnings from Microsoft and Meta.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept higher as investors shifted out of bonds and into risk assets. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar jumped 0.7% on the prospect of easing trade-war tensions, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Against this backdrop, US data pointed again towards economic slowing. Manufacturing fell further into contraction, according to the ISM. And first-time jobless claims surged 18,000 to 241,000 last week, the highest level in eight months.

Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a measure of the health of the labor markets.

Platinum and palladium added 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close; gold fell $95 to $3,210; silver slid 34 cents to $32.19; platinum picked up $1 to $964.80; and palladium rose $3.90 to $978.90 an ounce.

4/30/2025: Gold drops on mixed data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dropped 0.4% to close at $3,305 after weak but better-than-expected US economic data boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, pressuring alternative store of value. Bullion still gained 6% for the month, propelled by safe-haven inflows because of tariff uncertainty. Silver shed 2.2% for the day and 5.6% for the month to finish at $32.52 an ounce.

US GDP contracted for the first time since 2022, slipping 0.3% in Q1 after rising 2.4% the previous quarter. While the headline number was softer than forecasts, much of the blame fell to a huge upsurge in imports ahead of the imposition of Trump tariffs. Large trade deficits directly diminish GDP.

The PCE index for March showed inflation increased by 2.3%, down from 2.7% in February. Annual core inflation eased from 3% in February to 2.6% in March. Notably, the data recedes the effect of tariffs on consumer prices. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

ADP reported private payrolls added just 62,000 new jobs last month, the fewest since last July, as employers pulled back because of uncertainty about trade policies. Friday's federal nonfarm payrolls report will give a more authoritative look and the state of the labor market.

All three major US equity indexes retreated on the soft GDP data while yields and the dollar advanced, mostly because it was not as weak as expected. Goldman Scahs and JP Morgan has forecast contractions of 0.8% and 1.75%, respectively.

The dollar added 0.2%, pressuring gold by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept up toward 4.2%, increasing the opportunity cost for holding bullion instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum lost 1.2% for a monthly decline of 4.6%. Palladium rose 0.2% but still lost 5% in April.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $13.80 to $3,305; silver shed 74 cents to $32.53; platinum dropped $14.90 to $963.80; and palladium picked up $1.60 to $945 an ounce.

4/29/2025: Gold slips on tariff hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.4% to close under $3,319 as the hope of easing trade-war tensions lifted equities and the dollar, undercutting demand for safe-haven assets despite plunging US consumer confidence. Silver added 0.6% to finish at $33.28 an ounce.

Apparently bowing to pressure from US automakers, the Trump administration said it will lessen auto tariffs by reducing taxes on foreign-made parts used in cars made in the US. In addition, it will try to prevent imported cars from being hit with multiple tariffs.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that "several" trading partners have made proposals to reduce or offset tariffs.

Wall Street ran with the hope that trade policy might begin to normalize. All three major US stock indexes rose more than 0.5%, with the Dow and S&P 500 extending their winning streaks to five sessions.

The dollar picked up 0.2%, trying to climb off the three-year low it hit recently because of trade chaos.

Against this backdrop, consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest level since the depths of the pandemic, according to the Conference Board, while the so-called expectations index, which looks six months ahead, fell to the lowest level since 2011.

Platinum lost 0.9% while palladium rose 0.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $13.70 to $3,318.80; silver rose 27 cents to $33.28; platinum dropped $8.70 to $978.70; and palladium picked up $3 to $943.40 an ounce.

4/28/2025: Gold gains on bargain-hunting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded 1.5% to close above $3,332 on bargain-hunting as confidence about trade negations with China eroded, undercutting Treasury yields and the dollar while boosting safe-haven assets. Silver edged up 0.1% to finish at $33.07 an ounce.

Last week, bullion slipped 0.8% after President Trump signaled progress in talks with China. Chinese Present Xi denied that negotiations were taking place, but Wall Street rallied anyway as investors shifted toward risk assets on trade optimism.

But over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he could not confirm that talks in fact are taking place. The news put a damper on risk appetite today, pushing equities into losses and rekindling demand for safer investments.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slid back under 4.3% as investors sought the perceived safety of US government bonds. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.4% against major rivals, boosting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Several important economic reports this week will help to shed light on the effects of current trade policy. The PCE index report on Wednesday will give better insight into inflation, while the US jobs openings report tomorrow and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will indicate the health of the labor market.

Platinum rose 1.9% while palladium was nearly flat.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $50.10 to $3,332.50; silver added 4 cents, to $33.07; platinum picked up $18.60 to $987.40; and palladium edged down 70 cents to $943.30 an ounce.

4/25/2025: Gold slips on easing trade tension

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 1.5% to close under 3,283 as easing trade tensions with China lifted the dollar and eroded demand for safe havens. Bullion slipped 0.8% for the week. Silver fell 1.2% to 33.03 but still scored a weekly rise of 1.9%.

China has exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs, including pharmaceuticals, while considering lower duties on 131 overall product categories. The move appears to des-escalate the trade war that has all but paralyzed commerce between the world's two largest economies.

Beijing was quick to add that no actual negotiations are taking place with Washington despite President Trump's claims to that effect.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively, on the easing trade tensions. The Dow slipped slightly lower, having fewer tech companies that will directly benefit from lower tariffs.

The dollar rose on the shifting trade outlook, adding 0.1% against major rivals on the way to its first weekly rise in a month. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them prices overseas.

Platinum slid 0.7% today but was virtually unchanged for the week. Palladium dropped 1.1% for a weekly loss of 2.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $49.60 to $3,282.40; silver slid 45 cents to $33.03; platinum shed 6.50% to $969; and palladium slipped $10.15 to $962.60 an ounce.

4/24/2025: Gold rebounds on trade worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded 1.7% to close at $3,332 as renewed concerns about the trade war with China stoked demand for safe havens. Silver added 0.1% to finish at $33,48 an ounce.

One day after the White House signaled progress in trade negotiations and its openness to reducing China tariffs to around 60%, China refuted that any talks had taken place and demanded that all "unilateral tariff measures" be lifted.

Hope for a quick end to the trade impasse sparked a risk rally on Wall Street yesterday, lifting the dollar and knocking gold sharply lower after it hit a series of all-time highs.

Stock market carried over to today, with the Dow and S&P 500 rising another 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively, while the Nasdaq added 2.5%.

But the dollar reversed course, falling 0.7% against major rivals as traders returned to dependable safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. A falling dollar supports gold by making it cheaper overseas.

US home sales fell more than expected in March as high mortgage rates and pessimism about the economy stymied would-be buyers.

Platinum added less than 0.1% and palladium rose 1.1%.

At the Ne York spot close: gold gained $55.70 to $3,332; silver sipped 4 cents to 33.48; platinum added 80 cents, to $975.50; and palladium picked up $10.254 to $954.25 an ounce.

4/23/2025: Gold tumbles on risk appetite

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 3.7% to close near $3,276 as risk appetite rebounded after the White House signaled a possible de-escalation in the trade war with China and President Trump softened his rhetoric against the Federal Reserve. Silver rose 2% to 33.52 an ounce.

According to Reuters, the White House is amenable to lowering tariffs on imports from China, dropping them to around 60% from the current 145% as part of trade talks. The news comes one day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately told a conclave of major investors that the China tariffs are "unsustainable."

Wall Street leapt at the possibility of trade war relief, with the Dow and S&P 500 rising 1% and 1.7%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 2.5%.

Adding to risk appetite, the President backed away from his fiery criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump's attacks on the Fed roiled the markets this week, as Fed independence is considered the bedrock of global confidence in the dollar and Treasurys, both of which have seen major liquidations by foreign investors recently.

The dollar added 0.6% against major rivals but hovered near multi-year lows.

Despite today's correction, bullion has still gained nearly 30% this year and hit 28 record highs.

JP Morgan raised its gold price forecast to $4,000 by Q2 of next year, citing aggressive demand for bullion by global central banks and an increased likelihood of recession because of tariffs.

Platinum climbed 2.1% and palladium picked up 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold tumbled $124.50 to $3,276.30; silver rose 64 cents ot $33.52; platinum gained $20.30 to $971.70; and palladium picked up $4.120 to $944 an ounce.

4/22/2025: Gold eases but holds $3,400

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped less than 0.2% but still held near a record high above $3,400 as equities rallied on some positive earnings reports and the dollar perked up on the possibility of easing trade tensions with China. Silver jumped 1.2% to finish at $32.88 an ounce.

The dollar rebounded 0.6% against major rivals after Bloomberg reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit that the current trade tensions with China are unsustainable and should de-escalate soon.

A rising dollar weighs on gold by making it pricier overseas. But even with today's bounce, the buck is hovering near a 3-year low. President Trump's increasing pressure on the Fed, potential undercutting its independence, has been a driver of dollar weakness, which in turn supports higher gold.

The metal is further supported by uncertainty over trade policies and the rising possibility of global recession. The IMF warned today of slowing global growth because of trade wars, upping the odds of global recession 30% from 17% in October.

All three major US stock indexes rose more than 2%, clawing back some of yesterday's 3% plunge, as a round of positive earnings prompted bargain-hunters to enter the market.

Platinum fell 0.5% while palladium was flat.

At the New York spot close: gold eased $5.40 to $3,400.80; silver rose 38 cents to $32.88; platinum slid $4.40 to $953.40; and palladium was virtually flat at $939.80 an ounce.