AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

8/7/2025: Gold gains on tariffs, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to close above $3,400 despite an uptick in the dollar as the imposition of new tariffs stoked safe-haven demand while soft economic data raised hopes for rate cuts. Silver climbed 1% to finish at $38.16 an ounce.

First-time jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 226,000, the highest in a month, reinforcing the sense of slack in labor market. While layoffs remain minimal, hiring is slowing to a crawl as employers have been frozen by tariff uncertainty.

The data flow recently points toward weakness. Payroll growth has fallen precipitously for the past three months, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by merely 73,000 workers in July, while totals for May and June were revised lower by 258,000 jobs.

The ISM services index fell to just above contraction in July, signaling growth has nearly stalled out in 70% of the economy. And the ISM manufacturing index fell deeper into contraction for the fifth straight month.

Meanwhile, President Trump's most recent round of aggressive tariffs takes effect today, adding to trade tensions and uncertainty about the global economy.

Traders speculate that the softening data will lead the Fed to resume cutting interest rates in September. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a September cut of 25 basis points at nearly 92%, with a second one in October at 90%, and a third cut in December at nearly 50%.

Typically, a dovish rate outlook weighs on the dollar. But the buck gained 0.2% against major rivals today, in part because of reports that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is the favorite to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term is up in May.

While a policy dove, Waller is also highly respected in financial circles and recognized as a defender of Fed independence. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks in part because of fears that the Fed's independence would be compromised by Powell's successor.

Platinum and palladium rose 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.30 to $3,400.30; silver rose 39 cents to $38.16; platinum picked up $3.80 to $1,339.45; and palladium advanced $8.80 to $1,158.05 an ounce.