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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


4/24/2024: Gold dips ahead of GDP, PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down 0.1% to close at $2,324.50 as yields and the dollar crept higher ahead of key data releases later this week. Silver was nearly flat at $27.35 an ounce.

With much of the risk premium from the Israel-Iran conflict largely drained from the market, investors are awaiting tomorrow's release of GDP figures for the first quarter and Friday's personal consumption index for additional direction on interest rates.

Most forecasts expect GDP to have risen by around 2.2% in Q1, driven by continued strength in consumer spending at around 3%. It would be the seventh consecutive quarter of growth above 2%, the longest streak in 20 years.

The PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is projected to increase 0.3% in March, which is slightly less than the CPI of 0.4% for that month. But the annual inflation rate is expected to climb to 2.6% from 2.4% the month before.

Fed fund futures traders put the odds of an initial quarter-point rate cut in September at 71%. But if data comes in stronger than forecasts, the Fed could well decide to postpone rate cuts. Weaker GDP and cooler inflation, on the other hand, could increase the likelihood that lower rates will arrive sooner.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 4.65%, hovering near the highest levels this year, on expectations that the data will encourage the Fed to delay cuts. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking higher with yield the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Irrespective of interest rates, gold remains strongly supported by near-record buying by global central banks, the uncertain US political landscape during an important election year, and ongoing geopolitical conflict.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $3,.20 to $2,324.50; silver slipped 2 cents to $27.35; platinum slid $6.40 to $908.70; and palladium shed $18.50 to $1,008.30 an ounce.


4/23/2024: Gold dips on receding Iran fears

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% to close under $2,328 despite weakness in yields and the dollar as the easing of tensions between Iran and Israel lowered safe-haven bids for a second day. Silver picked up 0.4% to $27.36 an ounce.

Following Israel's largely symbolic drone attack on areas near Isfahan late last week, Iran has signaled that it will not respond with tit-for-tat retaliation that could vastly expand warfare in the Middle East.

Worries about a wider war helped to drive gold to new record highs as global investors sought safety. Much if not all of this fear premium has left the gold price after a two-day correction of 3%.

The metal's slide was backstopped after US data showed the economy lost momentum in April. The S&P flash services PMI fell to a five-month low of 50.9, barely above contraction, while the manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction at 49.9. Companies reported declining orders and cuts in hiring.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped back under 4.6% as traders speculated that the weaker data could entice the Fed toward rate cuts. Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dropped 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Gold continues to be support by near-record buying by global central banks, especially China and Russia, as they hedge against G7 currency risk.

Platinum slipped 0.9% while palladium added 1.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $4.50 to $2,327.70; silver rose 12 cents to $27.36; platinum dropped $8.50 to $915.10; and palladium picked up $11.20 to $1,026.80 an ounce.


4/22/2024: Gold drops as tensions cool

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.8% to close at a one-week low under $2,333 as Iran and Israel stepped back from the brink of a wider Middle East war, lifting risk appetite and stifling demand for safe havens. Silver shed 5.5% to $27.25 an ounce.

Following Israel's drone attack near Isfahan late last week, Iran downplayed the incident, saying the link to Israel has not been proven. The action came after Iran ineffectually fired hundreds of drones and missiles into Israel in retaliation for the recent killing of Iranian generals in Syria.

Rather than escalate the turmoil over Gaza into a direct military engagement, both Iran and Israel lowered the heat by these largely symbolic displays of force with no further actions threatened for now.

Investors cheered the reduction of tensions with a return to risk assets. The Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.8% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq added 1.2%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept higher as traders shifted out of sovereign debt. Higher yields tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds. The dollar was essentially flat.

Worries about a possible expansion of the war in the Middle East helped elevate the gold price to all-time highs despite hotter-than-expected US economic data and increasingly hawkish signals from the Fed about interest rates. The cooling of the conflict served as an opportunity to take profits from this record run.

Investors now turn to Friday's release of the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. If the reading comes in softer than expected, the gold price could resume its climb. If inflation is stronger than expected some erosion in gold may occur, although demand for inflation hedges could offset it.

Platinum fell 1.3%, palladium 1%.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $66.20 to $2,332.20; silver shed $1.60 to $27.25; platinum dropped $11.80 to $923.60; and palladium slid $10.80 to $1,015.60 an ounce.


4/19/2024: Gold rises for 5th straight week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Racing to a new record close, New York spot gold gained 0.7% to finish at $2,398.40 on flights to safety after Israel retaliated against Iran, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East. The metal ended the week 1.8% higher for its fifth consecutive weekly rise. Silver jumped 1.6% to $28.84 for a weekly gain of 1.8%.

Israel made good on its vow to retaliate against Iran for its drone and missile barrage last weekend, sending drones to attack an area near Isfahan. While no damage was reported, the strike was apparently intended to demonstrate Israel's ability to reach inside Iran itself.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped sharply the immediate wake of the attack, touching as low as 4.5% on flights to safety before retracing most of the loss after Iran said it would not retaliate.

Tracking along with yields, the dollar also fell sharply before bouncing back to a small loss.

Crude prices rose 0.6% to more than $83 per barrel on concerns that escalating tensions in the region may interrupt global oil supplies. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

In its semiannual report on financial stability, the Fed said today that high US interest rates are a could destabilize the global financial system. Higher-for-longer rates could strain the balance sheets of households and businesses. Banks with high exposure to commercial real estate and consumer loans could encounter greater losses, reducing the amount of credit in the system.

Platinum fell 1.2% for a weekly loss of 5.8%. Palladium shed 1.2% for a weekly loss of 3.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $16.10 to $2,398.40; silver rose 46 cents to $28.84; platinum dropped $11.10 to $935.40; and palladium slid $12.10 to $1,026.40 an ounce.


4/18/2024: Gold gains on Middle East worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close above $2,382 on safe-haven inflows driven by rising tensions in the Middle East. The increase in the gold price came despite net-positive US economic data and hawkish Fed statements that lifted yields and the dollar. Silver inched down less than 0.1% to $28.38 an ounce.

The Philly Factory gauge of regional business activity rose in March to the highest level in two years behind sharp increases in both new orders and shipments. It was the third straight positive reading and follows an upbeat manufacturing survey from the New York Fed region earlier this week.

First-time jobless claims were unchanged at 212,000 last week, indicating that the labor market remains robust, and layoffs are minimal.

On the negative side of the ledger, the Conference Boards index of leading economic indicators resumed its fall in March, losing 0.3% after rising for the first time in two years in February. And existing home sales dropped 4.3% in March.

With most US recent data showing remarkable resilience in the US economy, two more prominent Fed officials threw shade on the prospect of imminent rate cuts. John Williams of the New York Fed said he feels "no urgency " to lower interest rates. The Atlanta Fed's Earl Bostic echoed this view, saying he's not in a "mad dash hurry."

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped back above 4.6% as traders decreased their bets on a September cate cut. Fed fund futures trading now sees a 65% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction in September, down from 71% yesterday.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals.

Rising yields and a stronger dollar usually weigh on gold. Today these headwinds were overcome by flights to safety after Israel said it will retaliate against Iran for its recent, if unsuccessful, missile and drone attack.

The gold price is also being supported by near-record physical buying by central banks, especially China, and reports of some 522 tonnes of gold purchased in Q1 through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, considered a proxy for Chinese domestic demand.

Platinum and palladium picked up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $10.60 to $2,382.30; silver dipped 2 cents to $28.38; platinum added $1.10, to $946.50; and palladium picked up $7.70 to $1,038.50 an ounce.


4/17/2024: Gold eases on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.8% to hold above $2,370 despite downticks in yields and the dollar as traders took profits from its record run. The gold price has risen in 18 winning sessions in the past 21, gaining more than 10% during that span. Silver was nearly flat, adding less than 0.1% to finish at $28.40 an ounce.

The Fed's Beige Book reported steady economic growth in 10 of the 12 Fed's 12 districts, with businesses "cautiously optimistic" about the rest of the year. Little movement was seen in reducing inflation.

The IMF raised its projections for US growth to 2.7% in 2024, up from 2.1% in January and 1.5% last October. But the agency warned that excessive US fiscal debt and deficits could have "spillover effects" on the global economy.

The stronger US economy is changing the calculus for rate cuts from the Fed. Fed fund futures traders now put the odds of an initial cut in September at 71%, with no more than two in 2024.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields receded under 4.6% as investors bought bonds to offset weaker US equities. Yields have jumped to the highest levels since early November following comments yesterday by Fed Chair Powell signaling that interest rates are unlikely to fall soon.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dipped 0.3% against major rivals, cushioning gold's slide by making it cheaper overseas.

Gold remains supported by global safe-haven inflows because of the Ukraine and Gaza wars, as well as aggressive central bank purchasing, especially by China, India, and Turkey. Citigroup now projects a target gold price of $2,875 in 2025.

Platinum fell 2.2% while palladium was nearly flat.

At the New York spot close: gold eased $19.10 to $2,371.30; silver inched down 2 cents to $28.40; platinum shed $21 to $945.40; and palladium dipped 40 cents to $1,030.80 an ounce.


4/16/2024: Gold gains despite yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1.1% to close at $2,390.80, another record-high finish, despite rising yields and a stronger dollar as momentum buying and safe-haven inflows continue to trump fading rate-cut expectations. Silver fell 1.2% to $28.38 an ounce.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said today that interest rates are likely to remain elevated because the economy and inflation are both hotter than expected. Recent data "have not given us greater confidence" that inflation is coming down, Powell told a DC think tank.

Separately, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reinforced Powell's higher-for-longer refrain, saying sharp increases in consumer prices and ongoing strength in the labor market signal an uncertain outlook for inflation in coming months.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to the highest level since early November as investors digested the dimming rate view. Fed fund futures traders now project only two rate cuts this year, down from three just weeks ago, with the first not coming until September at the earliest.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar rose 0.1% against a basket of major rivals, notching a five-month high against the euro and hitting the highest level against the yen since 1990.

Ordinarily, increases in yields and the dollar weigh on gold, but bullish sentiment is carrying the metal to a succession of record highs despite these traditional headwinds. Gold is a global market. Demand is being driven by the worldwide appetite for hedges against currency risk and geopolitical uncertainty.

Platinum and palladium lost 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $25 to $2,390.80; silver shed 34 cents to $28.38; platinum dipped $5.60 to $966.40; and palladium slid $12.70 to $1,031.20 an ounce.


4/15/2024: Gold gains on safe-haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close at $2,365.80, yet another new record, on safe-haven inflows because of escalating Middle East turmoil. The gold price has now risen in 16 of the past 18 sessions, posting a new all-time high almost every day. Silver added 1.4% to close at $28.71 an ounce.

Iran fired more than 200 exploding drones and missiles at Israel over the weekend in retaliation for its recent strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus, which killed a high-ranking general. While mostly intercepted without damage, the barrage was the first direct attack on Israel by another country in more than 30 years, significantly escalating the threat of a wider war in the region.

Against this concerning backdrop, upbeat US economic data limited gold's rise by lifting the dollar and Treasury yields.

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, more than doubling forecasts, and totals for February were revised higher to 0.9% instead of 0.6%. Retail sales comprise around one-third of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for two-thirds of GDP.

The Empire State manufacturing survey advanced from negative 20.9 in March to negative 14.3 in April, fueling optimism that the New York Fed region may be pulling out of its five-month contraction.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a five-month high above 4.6% as traders speculated that the strong retail sales data could further delay prospects for rate cuts from the Fed. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar rose 0.2%, adding headwind from gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," surged to a six-year high as investors hedged against the possibility of a stock market crash.

Platinum and palladium dropped 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $9.60 to $2,365.80; silver rose 39 cents to $28.71; platinum shed $21.20 to $972; and palladium retreated by $15.60 to $1,043.90 an ounce.


4/12/2024: Gold scores 1.3% weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added less than 0.1% to close at $2,356.20, another all-time high, as worries about escalating Middle East violence and China's economic woes stoked safe-haven inflows and higher oil prices. Adding 1.3% for the week, the gold price has now risen in 15 of the last 17 sessions. Silver added 0.3% to close at $28.33 an ounce, posting a weekly rise of 3%.

Following last week's killing by of a senior Iranian officer in an Israeli attack on an embassy compound in Syria, Israel is bracing retaliation that is expected "very soon, in the next few days," according to Israel's largest daily newspaper. Iran's supreme leader, calling it an attack on Iran itself, has vowed that Israel "must be punished and shall be."

The growing risk of a major expansion in the Gaza war to include Iran is driving global into safe havens. Benchmark sovereign bonds in the US and other major economies rallied today, depressing yields, while the dollar gathered flights to safety in the currency markets.

Oil surged 1.2% to more than $86 per barrel on worries that escalating violence in the Middle East will reduce global supplies. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Softer growth in China, the world's second largest economy, is also prompting global demand for gold. Recent data show China's imports and exports have both fallen off Q2 after a relatively solid Q1, according to recent PMI surveys and the China' Beige Book. This week, Fitch Ratings downgraded China's foreign debt rating to negative from stable.

And gold's historic rally remains supported by near-record levels of buying by global central banks, especially China's, to diversify away from G7 currency risk.

The metal reached an intra-day record of $2,432.70 before falling back late in the session.

Platinum rose 1.5% for a weekly advance of 6.8%; palladium picked up 1.8% for the day and 5.2% for the week.

At the New York spot close: gold added $1.4, to $2,356.20; silver rose 8 cents to $28.33; platinum picked up $14.70 to $993.20; and palladium climbed $18.80 to $1,059.50 an ounce.


4/11/2024: Gold jumps on soft wholesale prices

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped 1.1% to close at a new all-time high of $2,354.80 after soft PPI data reduced inflation worries and rekindled expectations that the Fed may be back on track for rate cuts in Q3. The gold price has now risen in 14 over the last 16 sessions, adding nearly 11%. Silver gained 0.7% to close at $28.25 an ounce.

The producer price index rose a modest 0.2% in March, less than forecast, although the 12-month rate rose to 2.1% from an extremely low 1.6% in February. Wholesale prices typically anticipate consumer prices, helping to reduce worries about resurgent inflation after yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI.

While a June rate cut continues to be unlikely, Fed fund futures traders increased their bets on a quarter-point rate cut in July to 50/50. The Fed's meeting in September is now considered most likely, with the probability increasing to 71% from under 65% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar both edged down slightly after the PPI print.

Gold's historic rally remains supported by near-record levels of buying by global central banks to diversify away from G7 currency risk. Safe-haven demand because of geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East are also fueling rebounds whenever the price weakens slightly.

Platinum rose 1% while palladium fell 1.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $25.20 to $2,354.80; silver rose 20 cents to $28.25; platinum picked up $10 to $978.50; and palladium dropped $17.70 to $1,040.70 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $2,341.93           Price Change Up Arrow $19.95
Silver $27.53           Price Change Up Arrow $0.24
Platinum $921.60           Price Change Up Arrow $7.63
Palladium $1,017.30           Price Change Down Arrow $-19.72
In US Dollars