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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


10/21/2019: Gold slides on trade deal hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.4% to close just above $1,488 after upbeat comments from President Trump on trade negotiations lifted risk appetite and damped demand for safe-haven assets. Silver edged up 0.1% to $17.06.

At a cabinet meeting today, the President said trade talks are "coming along very well" and signaled that a deal is likely soon. The remarks came after similar optimism was expressed by China Vice Premier Liu He at a tech conference on Saturday.

Wall Street rose on the news, with tech stocks lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. Measured hope for a Brexit agreement also fueled demand as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks to have Parliament vote on his proposal tomorrow.

The dollar edged up 0.1% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities priced in it for international trade by making them more expensive in other currencies. Treasury yields also edged higher with the uptick in risk appetite.

The other precious metals were mixed, with platinum losing 0.4% while palladium added 0.5%.

At the Comex close: December gold slid $6 to $1,488.10; December silver added 2 cents, to settle at $17.60; January platinum dropped $3.70 to $892.20; and December palladium gained $7.70 to $1,725.30 an ounce.


10/18/2019: Gold dips, notches weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold edged down 0.3% to close above $1,491 as traders took profits, and comments from Fed officials clouded the outlook for an October rate cut. The metal still notched a weekly rise of 0.4%.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida was upbeat on the economy in a speech today, saying he sees no evidence that recession risks are elevated, or that consumer spending, the engine of the economy, is likely to dry up. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he is "agnostic" about another rate reduction, while Esther George of the Kansas City Fed signaled that she will argue against a cut when Fed meets again in two weeks.

Lower rates weaken the dollar by making it less attractive to foreign exchange traders seeking higher yields. A weaker dollar typically supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Cautious optimism about a Brexit deal also weighed on safe-haven appeal. British PM Boris Johnson obtained a surprise agreement this week from the EU on a way prevent, or at least postpone, a damaging "hard Brexit."

The UK will leave the bloc at the end of the month, as scheduled, but continue to operate under EU rules until the end of 2020. In the meantime, negotiators will work toward new set of trade regulations. The pending deal still needs approval from Parliament.

Gold's slide was backstopped by soft data. The Conference Board's leading economic indicators fell in September for the second straight month, primarily because of weakness in the manufacturing sector resulting from trade conflicts. Meanwhile, China's growth fell to a 27-year low of 6% in the third quarter, also weighed down by trade.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and week. Silver dipped 0.2% but ended the week 0.2% higher. Platinum added 0.3% today but lost 0.5% this week. Palladium fell 0.8% but still gained 2.8% for the week.

At the Comex close: December gold fell $4.20 to $1,494.10; December silver dropped 3 cents to $17.58; January platinum $2.90 to $895.90; December palladium lost $13.10 to $1,716.90 an ounce.


10/17/2019: Gold rises on pending Brexit deal

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold rose 0.3% to close above $1,498 as a tentative Brexit deal and another round of soft US data weakened the dollar, boosting demand for alternative assets.

Britain and the European Union announced a last-minute deal to pave the way for an amicable separation if ratified by Parliament. Under the deal, the UK will leave the bloc but continue to operate under EU rules until the end of next year. In the meantime, negotiators will continue to work toward new trade deal.

While the pact has slim chances of passing Parliament in current form, it nonetheless rallied the pound and euro, which have been weakened by persistent fears of a so-called hard Brexit. The dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade.

Weak US data also lifted the metal. Industrial output fell 0.4% in September, the most in five months, as manufacturing continues to be hammered by trade conflicts. The Philadelphia Fed region saw its gauge of business activity fall sharply in October, largely on the US-China trade war.

Treasury yields slid and prices rose on safe-haven inflows.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and platinum adding 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while palladium dropped 0.3%.

At the Comex close: December gold rose $4.30 to $1,498.30; December silver climbed 19 cents to $17.61; January platinum added $2.30, to $893; and December palladium slid $4.30 to $1,730.70 an ounce.


10/16/2019: Gold gains on soft US data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.7% to close at $1,494 after soft US economic data bolstered the case for another interest rate cut from the Fed, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for alternative stores of value.

Retail sales declined for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting struggles elsewhere in the economy are beginning to affect consumers. Comprising roughly 70% of GDP, household spending has largely kept the economy afloat as manufacturing has contracted to near-recession levels and the services sector has also started to slow.

The Fed's Beige Book reported "slight to modest" growth across its 12 regions in September, down from "modest to moderate" in prior months. The US-China trade dispute continues to curtail business activity, with factories starting to lay off workers and agricultural production falling because of Chinese tariffs.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals as traders speculated that the softer data will encourage the Fed to cut interest rates again when in meets later this month. Lower rates pressure the dollar by making it less attractive to Forex traders seeking yield. A weaker dollar, in turn, supports gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Also lifting gold, crude oil rose 1% on signals that OPEC and Russia will extend production cuts into December. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The other precious metals were also higher, with silver adding 0.3% while platinum and palladium rose 0.2% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $10.50 to $1,494; December silver added 4 cents, to $17.43; January platinum picked up $1.50 to $890.70; and December palladium jumped $38.40 to $1,735 an ounce.


10/15/2019: Gold sildes on oil, earnings

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 1% to close at a two-week low under $1,484 as falling oil prices and upbeat corporate earnings dulled demand for alternative assets.

All three major US stock indexes posted gains of more than 1%, approaching record levels, after blue-chip financial and healthcare firms reported better-than-expected profits to start the Q3 corporate earnings seasons.

Also pressuring gold, WTI crude prices fell 1.5% on demand worries after the IMF cut its forecast for global growth to 3% this year, the lowest since the financial crisis in 2008. With high tariffs smothering manufacturing, trade volume growth in the first half of 2019 was 1%, the weakest since 2012.

The dollar rose 0.1% against major rivals as traders weighed the impact of the so-called Phase One trade agreement between the US and China, announced last Friday. If signed, the partial pact will double the amount of US farm products bought by China in exchange for the postponement of additional 5% tariffs on $60 billion in Chinese goods.

The other precious metals were mostly lower, with silver and platinum sliding 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while outlier palladium added 0.6% to reach another record high.

At the Comex close: December gold dropped $14.10 to $1,483.50; December silver fell 33 cents to $17.38; January platinum slid $10.20 to $889.20; and December palladium picked up $9.60 to $1,696.60 an ounce.


10/14/2019: Gold gains on QE-type program

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.6% to close near $1,498 after a surprise bond-buying program from the Fed and uncertainty over the new US-China trade deal boosted demand for safe havens.

The Federal Reserve announced on Friday that it will begin a massive program of buying US Treasury bills to create additional liquidity in money markets. Beginning next week, the Fed will expand its balance sheet by $60 billion per month at least until Q2 of 2020.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell was careful to say the program is not a form of emergency stimulus, it is virtually identical to the three phases of quantitative easing undertaken by the Fed to pull the economy out of the liquidity crunch caused by the global financial crisis in 2009.

Quantitative easing help gold rally to an all time high above $1,900 as investors sought to offset the currency risk associated with cheap money.

Gold was also boosted today by risk-off sentiment after reports that China is not ready to sign the Phase One trade deal announced late Friday by President Trump. The partial plan has China buying $40 to $50 in US agricultural production in exchange for the postponement of additional tariffs of 5% on $250 in Chinese imports.

Capping gold's gains, oil fell 2.3% as doubts about the trade pact caused worries about global demand. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and palladium rising 1% while platinum edged down 0.1%.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $8.90 to $1,497.60; December silver rose 17 cents to $17.71; January platinum dipped 90 cents to $899.40; and December palladium added $16.90, to $1,687 an ounce.


10/11/2019: Gold falls on mini trade deal

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 0.8% to close under $1,489 as easing trade-war and Brexit tensions fueled risk appetite, dulling demand for safe havens. The metal lost 1.6% for the week in its biggest weekly decline since March.

The US and China have reportedly reached a limited pact that will ratchet down their 15-month trade war. While details are vague, the deal apparently involves some "agricultural concessions" from China in exchange for "some tariff relief" from the US.

Despite the seeming smallness of the deal, Wall Street cheered the progress toward détente in a conflict that has damaged both sides and slowed the global economy. The Dow rose 1.8% while the Global Dow added 3%.

Adding to the optimistic outlook, Britain and the EU are reportedly making headway in secret negotiations toward an orderly Brexit ahead of the October 31 deadline.

The dollar fell 0.4% to a three-week low against major rivals led by the euro, pound, and yuan as traders shifted away from safe havens. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasurys rose for the same reason.

The other precious metals were lower for the day and mixed for the week. Silver slipped 0.3% for a weekly loss of 0.5%. Platinum dropped 0.8% for the session but gained 1.5% for the week. Palladium slid 0.4% today but rose 1.7% this week.

At the Comex close: December gold fell $12.20 to $1,488.70; December silver slid 6 cents to $17.54; January platinum slid $7.60 to $900.30; and December palladium dropped $5.80 to $1,670.10 an ounce.


10/10/2019: Gold falls on rising trade hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 0.8% but held above $1,500 as optimism over a possible US-China trade deal sparked risk appetite and dulled demand for safe-haven assets.

President Trump tweeted today that he will meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday for further trade negotiations. That the President, a self-styled closer, will participate signals the growing likelihood that some sort of deal with be announced.

Separately, Liu said China is willing to strike a deal to prevent further escalation of the damaging trade war. Tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese imports are schedule to rise to 30% next week.

Wall Street rallied on the upbeat remarks, with the Dow rising 0.5% and the Global Dow 1.3%. While a comprehensive trade agreement is not expected, even a limited compact would mark progress and diffuse tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Also supporting risk appetite, US consumer inflation and real earnings were both flat in September, easing the way for another rate cut from the Fed when it meets at the end of the month.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals, especially the euro, while Treasury yields bounced higher on the decrease in risk aversion.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver losing 1.2% while platinum and palladium both rose 1.3%.

At the Comex close: December gold fell $11.90 to $1,500.90; December silver dropped 21 cents to $17.60; January platinum gained $11.20 to $907.90; and December climbed $21.20 to $1,675.90 an ounce, a new record high.


10/9/2019: Gold gains on rate outlook

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gained 0.6% to close near $1,513 as trade-war tensions and a dovish outlook from the Fed nudged investors towards alternative assets.

Persistent concerns about trade relations buoyed safe-haven demand despite some apparently conciliatory gestures from Beijing ahead of tomorrow's negotiations in Washington. Reports suggest that China may be open to a limited trade agreement and will increase purchases of US agricultural products by 50%, to $50 billion.

The concessions come as tariffs are set to rise from 25% to 30% on $250 billion in Chinese goods on October 15.

Wall Street jumped on the news, with the Dow adding 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 1.2%. But with reverses in trade prospects occurring almost daily, safe havens like gold and silver are finding support even when risk appetite is stoked by new hopes.

Most of gold's gains came late yesterday in electronic trade after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled support for additional rate cuts to maintain the US expansion. Minutes from the September Fed meeting underscored Powell's dovishness today, with several members voicing concern about slowing growth and the possibility of a recession.

The other precious metals were also higher, with silver rising 0.6% while platinum added 0.7% and palladium picked up 0.2%.

At the Comex close: December gold gained $8.90, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,512.80; December silver climbed 11 cents to $17.81; January platinum rose $6.60 to $886.70; and December palladium added $4, to $1,654.70 an ounce.


10/8/2019: Gold ends flat, jumps after hours

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold ended nearly flat, inching down 50 cents to close under $1,504, as early gains gave way to profit-taking and pressure from a rising dollar. The metal then jumped above $1,511 in electronic trade after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled openness to further reductions in interest rates.

Tension between the US and China increased today after the White House added some top Chinese tech companies its trade blacklist, drawing a stern rebuke from Beijing. Coming ahead of trade talks in Washington starting on Thursday, the move undermined optimism for progress in the 15-month trade war.

Gold quickly jumped above $1,512 on safe-haven inflows only to surrender those gains by close as traders took profits and the dollar rose 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

After hours, however, gold reclaimed most of its earlier gains to rise above $1,511 on dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the central bank is open to additional rate cuts to offset growing global economic risks. CME FedWatch now forecasts an 86% likelihood of another quarter-point reduction at the end of October, up from 75% yesterday and 62% one week ago.

Lower rates pressure the dollar by making it less attractive to Forex investors seeking higher yield, supporting gold in turn by making it less expensive overseas.

The other precious metals were higher, with silver rising 0.9% while platinum and palladium added 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

At the Comex close: December gold dipped 50 cents to $1,503.90; December silver gained 16 cents to $17.70; January platinum picked up $1.80 to $890.10; and December palladium rose $4.40 to $1,650.70 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,485.35           $-6.30
Silver $17.62           $0.01
Platinum $893.70           $-0.96
Palladium $1,775.60           $14.36
In US Dollars

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