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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


1/27/2023: Gold dips into sixth weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold was little changed, dipping 60 cents to close under $1,930 as falling inflation and upbeat economic data fueled risk appetite, pressuring safe-haven assets. The metal ended the week 0.1% higher for its sixth straight weekly rise, the longest streak since mid-2020.

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCI index, showed the cost for US goods and services rose a scant 0.1% in December, the smallest increase in 14 months, with the annual rate falling to 5%. The so-called core rate, less volatile food and energy costs, dropped to 4.4%, also a 14-month low.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment improved in January, according to the University of Michigan final survey, as Americans became more optimistic that inflation will continue to fall. And pending US home sales ended a six-month decline in December, rising 2.5%.

Wall Street ran with the good news. The Dow and S&P 500 added 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pushed back above 3.5% as traders shifted away from safety. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar tracked higher with yields, adding 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

The other precious metals were lower for the day and week. Silver dropped 1.7% for a weekly decline of 1.3%. Platinum lost 0.6% today and 3% this week. Palladium shed another 3.9% for a weekly loss of 7.2%.

At the Comex close: February gold dipped 60 cents to $1,929.40; March silver lost 40 cents to $23.62; April platinum shed $6.20 to $1,016.80; and March palladium declined by $64.10 to $1,599.70 an ounce.


1/26/2023: Gold slides on GDP, profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.7% to close at $1,930 as upbeat GDP data lifted yields and the dollar, prompting traders to take profits from the metal's five-day rally to a new nine-month high above $1,942.

The US economy grew at an annualized 2.9% in Q4, beating expectations, fueled by solid consumer spending, which rose at a 2.1% clip. Household outlays account for around 70% of all US economic activity.

While the economy showed resilience last quarter, it was helped by unsustainable circumstances. A large increase in inventories, or unsold goods, accounted for are half the GDP growth. Businesses are likely to decrease production in 2023 because of high existing inventory. And falling international trade deficits further padding GDP in the quarter.

S&P Global, one of the top economic forecasters on Wall Street, projects GDP will decline 1.9% during Q1, saying the economy is on a "downward trajectory." The National Association for Business Economics reported earlier this week that 52% of economists surveyed believe the US will enter a recession this year.

Still, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged slightly higher to nearly 3.5% on hopes that a recession may be avoided. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe haven asset.

The dollar tracked higher with yields, adding 0.2% against major rivals, as the solid GDP perhaps gives the Fed latitude to keep interest rates elevated for longer. A stronger dollar is s headwind for gold and other commodities because it makes them pricier in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mixed. Silver added 0.3% while platinum dropped 2.2% and palladium lost 1.4%.

At the Comex close: February gold slipped $12.60 to $1,930; March silver rose 8 cents to $24.02; April platinum dropped $23.10 to $1,023; and March palladium fell $24.10 to $1,663.80 an ounce.


1/25/2023: Gold scores fresh 9-month high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold added another 0.4% to close above $1,942 as yields and the dollar receded further on weakening equities, recession worries, and bets that the Fed will go easier with interest rates in coming months. It was the metal's fifth straight winning session and highest finish in nine months.

Wall Street wobbled after corporate earnings came in weaker than expected, reinforcing concerns that the economy is slowing under the weight of aggressively higher interest rates. Nasdaq sipped 0.2% while the Dow and S&P 500 hovered between small gains and losses.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 3.45% as investors sought refuge in the perceived safety of government bonds. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

With many forecasters projecting the US to slide into recession in 2023—if it isn’t there already, traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will respond by raising interest rates in smaller and fewer increments going forward. After four straight hikes of 75 basis points and one of 50 over the past five Fed meetings, Fed fund futures puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week at 99.8%.

The dollar fell again, giving up 0.3% against major rivals on growing expectations that the Fed will become less aggressive than its peers, especially the ECB. While US economic data has been consistently weak, Eurozone data has been stronger this month, suggesting that the ECB will need to tighten monetary policy further than the Fed to stifle inflation.

Higher rates outside the US make other currencies more attractive to Forex traders, weakening the dollar. A falling dollar, in turn, helps gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver rising 0.8% while platinum and palladium, more closely tied to industry, slid 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively.

At the Comex close: February gold gained $7.20 to $1,942.60 March silver prices rose 19 cents to $23.94; April platinum lost $20.70 to $1,046.10; and March palladium shed $47.60 to $1,687.90 an ounce.


1/24/2023: Gold rises for fourth session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold rose 0.4% to close above $1,935 as soft US data weighed on yields and the dollar, fueling demand for alternative assets. It was the metal's fourth straight winning session and highest finish in nine months.

The US economy was weak to start the new year, according to S&P Global surveys, with business conditions contracting in January for the fourth consecutive month. Both the services and manufacturing sectors edged up slightly from the previous month but remained decidedly in the negative as demand remained depressed.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slid back under 3.5% as traders bet that the weakening economy and falling inflation will slow the Fed's rate-hike regimen. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Fed fund futures traders now see a 98% chance of a rate increase of 25 basis points at the Fed's meeting next week, up from 66% a month ago, with probably one more increase of the same size by June.

The dollar slid 0.2% against major rivals after business conditions in the Eurozone unexpectedly improved, lifting the euro. A falling dollar helps gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, increasing demand overseas.

The other precious metals were also higher, with silver rising 0.8% while platinum and palladium added 1% and 2%, respectively.

At the Comex close: February gold gained $6.80 to $1,935.40; March silver added 20 cents, to $23.75; April platinum picked up $10.50 to $1,066.80; and March palladium climbed $34.10 to $1,735.50 an ounce.


1/23/2023: Gold inches up on weaker dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold inched up 40 cents to close at $1,928.60 as recession worries and a dip in the dollar lofted alternative stores of value despite an upbeat day for US stock markets. It was the metal's highest finish since late April.

The index of leading economic indicators fell 1% in December due to a softening labor market and pervasive weakness in manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets. Considered a key barometer of US economic health, the LEI also plunged 1.1% in November.

The National Association for Business Economics reported that 52% of economists surveyed believe the US will enter a recession in 2023. For the first time since 2020 more economist expect unemployment to rise than fall in the next three months.

Despite widespread economic pessimism, Wall Street had its best day in a month. Tech stocks led the way on expectations that the slowing economy will make the Fed less aggressive with rate hikes in coming months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq added 2% while the Dow and S&P 500 picked up 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

The dollar edged down slightly as the euro rose on hawkish remarks from ECB president Christine Lagarde, who said the ECB will keep raising rates quickly to slow inflation. A weaker dollar supports gold by making it less expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mixed. Silver fell 1.6%; platinum rose 0.8%; and palladium dropped 1.3%.

At the Comex Close: February gold added 40 cents, to $1,928.60; March silver dropped 38 cents to $23.55; April platinum picked up $8.50 to $1,056.30; and March palladium shed $21.80 to $1,701.40 an ounce.


1/20/2023: Gold gains for fifth straight week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold added 0.2% to close near a nine-month high $1,928 as recession worries offset more tough talk from the Fed to boost demand for safe havens. The metal ended the week 0.3% higher for its fifth straight weekly win.

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales plunged to a 12-year low in December and the median home price rose at its slowest pace since the depths of the pandemic in 2020.

Following reports earlier this week that new housing starts have fallen sharply for two months, the NAR data was seen as further evidence that the once-blazing housing market has fallen into recession.

Continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, a bigger-than-expected tumble in retail sales, and dismal housing data have investors worried that the Fed will push the economy into a tailspin as it attempts to smother inflation with higher interest rates.

Hawkish commentary from yet another Fed official reinforced those concerns. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said today that it's too soon to say inflation is on "the right trend" and more tightening is needed.

George's statements echo similar ones this week from the Boston Fed's Susan Collins, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed, and Cleveland's Loretta Mester.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields bucked their recent slide, edging back up toward 3.5% and capping gold's gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset. The dollar was little changed, inching down very slightly against major rivals.

The gold price was further buoyed by rising oil prices. US benchmark WTI crude added 1.2% for the day and 1.8% for the week on the prospects of increasing demand from China as zero-Covid policies are relaxed. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and lower for the week. Silver added 0.3% today but fell 1.8% this week. Platinum picked up 0.6% but still fell 2.3% for the week. Palladium dropped 2.6% for a weekly loss of 3.6%.

At the Comex close: February gold gained $4.30 to $1,928.20; March silver added 7 cents, to $23.94; April platinum climbed $6.70 to $1,047.80; and March palladium shed $45.30 to $1,723.20 an ounce.


1/19/2023: Gold gains on data, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Rebounding from two down sessions, gold gained 0.9% to close near $1,924 despite more hawkish Fed talk as downbeat US data pressured yields and the dollar, driving demand for alternative assets. It was the metal's highest finish since late April 2022.

The Philly Fed gauge of regional business activity edged slightly higher in January but remained mired in negative territory for the fifth straight month, adding to concerns about recession in manufacturing. Earlier this week, New York's Empire State survey also fell deeply into the negative. Both readings are widely followed as weathervanes for national factory activity.

National housing starts fell 1.4% in December as higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy continues to slam the beaks on new home construction. Following November's 1.8% decline, housing starts were at the lowest level since last July.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell further under 3.4% as investors, worried about recession, flock to the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

More hawkish comments from Fed officials helped fuel concerns that the central bank will overdo and push the economy into recession. Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, said rates must exceed 5% and stay there to force inflation back to 2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, typically a dovish voice, reinforced the strategy of keeping rates restrictive "for some time."

The dollar retreated 0.3% on the weak data and recession worries, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mostly higher, with silver and palladium rising 0.9% and 3.7%, respectively, while platinum dipped 0.3%.

At the Comex close: February gold gained $16.90 to $1,923.90; March silver picked up 22 cents to $23.87; April platinum dipped $2.60 to $1,041.10; and March palladium climbed $62.50 to $1,768.50 an ounce.


1/18/2023: Gold dips after hawkish Fed talk

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold edged down 0.2% to close at $1,907 after two prominent Fed officials advocated staying aggressive with rate hikes despite several months of softer inflation data. The metal had risen to a high near $1,930 on another round of weak US economic reports before pulling back on the hawkish Fed talk.

US wholesale prices fell 0.5% in December, far more than forecast, led by cheaper food and gasoline. It was the biggest decline since April 2020 and more evidence that inflation is waning. The soft PPI data follows last week's CPI report showing consumer inflation falling in December for the first monthly decrease since 2020.

Adding to deflationary pressure, retail sales tumbled 1.1% last month for the biggest decline in a year. Meanwhile, the November print was revised to show sales falling 1% rather than the 0.6% originally reported.

And finally, the Fed reported that US industrial output dropped 0.7% in December for the biggest monthly decline since September 2021.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 3.4% as investors, fearful of a possible recession, sought refuge in the perceived safety of government bonds. Gold also benefited from flights to safety, rising to $1,929.80 early in the session.

But hawkish comments from two regional Fed presidents prompted traders to take profits from the early-session gains. President James Bullard St. Louis Fed said the Fed "should not stall" in raising rates above 5% as quickly as possible, sentiments echoed separately by President Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed.

The dollar tumbled on the weak data, only to recoup its losses later in the session on the Fed talk and news that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy.

The other precious metals were also lower' with silver falling 1.8% while platinum and palladium lost 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the Comex close: February gold dipped $2.90 to $1,907; March silver slid 42 cents to $23.65; April platinum slipped $3.20 to $1,043.70; and March palladium shed $28 to $1,706 an ounce.


1/17/2023: Gold slips on yields, profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slipped 0.6% to close under $1,910 as upbeat global economic data lifted government bond yields, pressuring alternative stores of value and prompting traders to take additional profits from last week's rally to a 9-month high.

China's economy grew 3% last year, surprising the markets. It was the weakest pace since the 1970s but more than forecast and raised hopes that the world's second-largest economy could rebound sharply as it reopens after extreme Covid closures.

Germany's economic outlook improved dramatically in January, with an important survey of business sentiment rising jumping into positive territory from the deeply negative in December. Lower energy prices and the prospect of renewed trade with China drove the improvement.

And new data showed that the UK labor market stabilized in Q4, with declining job vacancies and higher wages.

US data was not so positive. New York's Empire State index of business conditions fell further into the negative in January, adding to concerns about a possible recession in 2023. The New York gauge is considered a weathervane for national manufacturing trends.

Yields on benchmark 10-year German bunds and UK gilts rose on the stronger data, which in turn pulled yields on US 10-year Treasurys higher despite the weak US data. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Goldman Sachs told clients today that It expects the gold price to trend around $1,950 this year as inflation wanes and the dollar weakens against to other currencies.

The other precious metals were also lower, with silver sliding 1.3% while platinum and palladium dropped 2.4% and 3%, respectively.

At the Comex close: February gold fell $11.80 to $1,909.90; March silver slid by 30 cents to $24.07; April platinum dropped $25.60 to $1,046.90; and March palladium shed $53.30 to $1,734 an ounce.


1/16/2023: Gold holds near 8-month high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — With US markets closed for the MLK holiday, gold futures slipped 0.3% in electronic trading but held near an 8-month high above $1,917.

Following last week's CPI that showed inflation falling in December for the first time since 2020, markets are recalibrating expectations for the end of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hike cycle since the 1980s. Fed fund futures markets now see a 91% likelihood of a quarter-point hike in Feb, the smallest in more than six months.

Slower rates hikes in coming months, perhaps with rate cuts in the second half of 2023 if the economy continues to ebb toward recession, would mean a weaker dollar and receding Treasury yields, both of which would be bullish for gold and silver.

Bank of America analysts are projecting the gold price to break above $2,000 in coming months behind the tailwinds of falling yields and a lower dollar. Global ETF powerhouse Wisdom Tree is now saying gold could push to record highs above $2,100 by year-end.

Near-term buying in China is also projected to support the gold price as the Chinese economy reopens after Covid closures and the Lunar New Year holiday season begins next month. Gold is considered an auspicious gift during this period.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,932.66           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
Silver $23.74           Price Change Up Arrow $-0.00
Platinum $1,026.42           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
Palladium $1,651.75           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
In US Dollars