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AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.


7/1/2022: Gold falls again on dollar strength

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold fell 0.3% to close under $1,802 as the dollar continued to rise on soft US data and recession concerns, eroding demand for alternative stores of value. The metal’s fifth straight lower finish resulted in a 1.6% loss for the week.

The ISM gauge of US manufacturing fell 3.1% to a two-year low in June, another sign that the economy has hit the skids. Separately, construction spending dropped 0.8% in May, the Commerce Department reported, nearly three times most forecasts

The Atlanta Fed slashed its real GDP projection for Q2 again, from minus 1% yesterday to minus 2.1% today. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase slashed its outlook for real US growth to 1% in Q2 and Q3, putting the world’s largest economy perilously close to recession.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated under 2.9% as global investors sought safety in US government debt.

The dollar rose 0.4% against major rivals on safe-haven inflows, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and week. Silver tumbled 3.4% for a weekly loss of 6.9%. Platinum fell 2.7% today and 3.6% this week. Palladium added 1.2% for a weekly rise of 4.5%.

At the Comex close: August gold futures fell $5.80 to 1,801.50; September silver plunged 68 cents to $19.67, a two-year low; October platinum lost $24 to $871.30; and September palladium picked up $22, to $1,938.10 an ounce.


6/30/2022: Gold lower for month, quarter

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold dropped 0.6% to close under $1,807 as renewed expectations for aggressive rate hikes from the Fed weighed on demand despite another round of soft US economic data. The metal fell 2.2% for the month and 7.5% for the quarter.

The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, held steady at 6.3% over the past year, suggesting that inflation may have peaked but is not necessarily getting better.

At the annual ECB conference in Portugal this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell vowed to lower inflation at virtually any cost, even if it means crushing economic growth and inflicting “some pain” on American families. Powell was met in this hawkish stance by ECB chief Christine Lagarde, who warned that the pre-pandemic era of low interest rates will not return.

The higher rate view has lifted the dollar by 6% this year to a 20-year high, pressuring gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

But the promise of tighter monetary policy to fight inflation comes against a background of already-weakening economic growth and the increasing risk of recession.

The government reported today that consumer spending grew only 0.2% in May, the smallest rise this year, as Americans change buying habits because of rising prices and eroding household income. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP.

Near-future spending looks to weaken further. As the Conference Board reported this week, consumer confidence fell to a 16-month low in June.

The Atlanta Fed lowered its forecast for Q2 real growth from 1% to negative 1.5% following the consumer spending data.

Gold remains in a kind of tug-of-war, strengthened by global demand for safe-havens and inflation hedges on one side, but weakened on the other side by a dollar lifted to 20-year highs by the Fed’s hawkish rate view.

The other precious metals were also lower. Silver lost 1.9% today for drop 6.2% for the month and 19% for the quarter. Platinum fell 1.6% for a monthly decline of 7.5%. Palladium shed 1.6% today and 4.5% in June.

At the Comex close: August gold futures fell $10.20 to $1,807.30; September silver slid 39 cents to $20.35; October platinum dropped $14.60 to to $895.30; and September palladium shed $30.50 to $1,916.10 an ounce.


6/29/2022: Gold slides after hawkish Powell

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slid 0.2% to close under $1,818 in choppy trading as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell lifted the dollar, undercutting alternative stores of value. The rose above $1,839 mid-session before pulling back to finish at a two-week low.

Speaking at a European Central Bank policy conference in Portugal, Powell vowed to prevent the US economy from falling into a “higher inflation regime,” even if it means hampering growth. Controlling inflation “is highly likely to involve some pain” and may risk recession, Powell admitted, but the “bigger mistake” would be “to fail to restore price stability.”

Echoing Powell’s comments, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the prepandemic era of low inflation will not return, and the ECB must act now to counter its persistent underestimation of price growth.

The dollar rose 0.5% against major rivals on Powell’s hawkish view, pressuring gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated under 3.1% as bond traders, responding the Powell’s warning about slower growth, shifted toward the perceived safety of government bonds.

For now, gold investors are caught in crosscurrents. Higher interest rates are a headwind for gold because they strengthen dollar. But the recessionary risk of tighter monetary policy is supportive of the metal as a safe-haven asset. And gold is often seen as the go-to investment for preserving purchasing power in times of inflation.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver dropping 0.6% while platinum and palladium added 0.5% and 4.6%, respectively.

At the Comex close: August gold slipped $3.70 to $1,817.50; September silver dropped 13 cents to $20.74, an 18-month low; October platinum rose $4.30 to $909.90; and September palladium picked up $84.70 to $1,946.60 per ounce.


6/28/2022: Gold dips with stronger dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold dipped 0.2% to close just above $1,821 despite soft economic data and falling equities as strength in the dollar undermined demand for alternative stores of value.

US consumer confidence fell to a 16-month low in June, according to the Conference Board, as Americans grew increasingly apprehensive about inflation and the possibility of recession.

In a separate survey conducted by JP Morgan Chase, only 19% of senior executives in mid-sized firms are confident in the economy in the year ahead. This was the lowest reading in the 12-year history of the survey.

Wall Street turned marked lower on the weak data, with the Dow and S&P 500 losing 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, while the Nasdaq plunged 2.7%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed.

The dollar jumped 0.5% against major rivals after ECB President Christine Lagarde brought the euro under pressure. Speaking at the ECB annual conference, she signaled that the eurozone will be slower in raising interest rates than most of its peers as the EU is more vulnerable to recession because of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

While rising inflation and the global slowdown remain fundamentally supportive for gold because of demand for inflation hedges and safe havens, the metal nonetheless is hitting short-term headwinds from the stronger dollar, which gains in value as US interest rates rise relative to its peers. A rising dollar makes gold and other commodities pricier in other currencies, limiting overseas demand.

The other precious metals were mixed, with silver dropping 1.7% while platinum added 0.2% and palladium rose 0.6%.

At the Comex close: August gold dipped $3.60 to $1,821.20; July silver fell 36 cents to $20.81; September palladium picked up $3 to $1,861.90; October platinum climbed $5.30 to $905.60 an ounce.


6/27/2022: Gold slips as yields rebound

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slipped 0.3% to close under $1,825 as yields rose on upbeat US data, undercutting alternative stores of value despite a retreating dollar.

Orders for long-lasting goods like cars and heavy machinery rose 0.7% in May, beating expectations, and business investment added 0.5%. The data showed resilience in manufacturing although factories are moderating plans for expansion because of worries about a possible recession, according to a June survey of manufacturing executives.

Separately, US pending home sales rose 0.7% in May, according to an index released by the National Association of Realtors. The increase follows six straight months of declines.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 3.2% as traders viewed the improved data as potentially pushing the Fed toward aggressive rate hikes. Yields had tumbled in recent weeks as slowing in the economy was thought to weaken the case for more huge rate increases.

Higher yields tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

The dollar retreated 0.3% against major rivals on the softening inflation expectations, backstopping gold’s slide by making it cheaper in other currencies.

Providing additional support, the US and major allies have moved to ban Russian gold exports to increase sanctions for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The world’s third-largest gold producer, Russia supplies around 10% of world gold production.

The other precious metals were higher, with silver and platinum added 0.2% and less than 0.1%, respectively, while palladium climbed 2.6%.

At the Comex close: August gold slid $5.50 to $1,824.80; July silver added 4 cents, to $21.17; July platinum picked up 40 cents to $904.10; and September palladium climbed $4.60 to $1,858.90 per ounce.


6/24/2022: Gold rises on weak consumer data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold edged up less than 0.1% to close above $1,830 after record-low consumer sentiment data pressured yields and the dollar, buoying safe-haven assets. The metal ended the week down 0.5% on concerns about higher interest rates.

The final print on US consumer sentiment in June fell to 50, the lowest level in the 44-year history of the University of Michigan survey. The worst inflation in 40 years and a slowing economy are making Americans think twice about purchases.

With consumer spending accounting for roughly 70% of GDP, the souring outlook bodes ill for future economic growth.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to just above 3% as investors, worried about the possibility of recession, sought safety in government bonds. Weaker yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking lower with Treasury yields, the dollar dropped 0.3% against major rivals as Forex traders re-evaluated the likely path of monetary policy. With signs of recession becoming more obvious, bets are increasing that inflation may ease by the fall and the Fed may become less aggressive in hiking rates.

Wall Street rebounded on the possibility of a more moderate Fed approach, with the Dow rising 2.8% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 3% and 3.3%, respectively.

The other precious metals were mixed for the day and week. Silver added 0.4% today but lost 2.1% this week. Platinum dipped 0.1% for a weekly loss of 2.9%. Palladium picked up 1.7% for a weekly rise of 3.1%.

At the Comex close: August gold added 50 cents, to $1.830.30; July silver climbed 8 cents to $21.13; July platinum slipped 70 cents to $903.70; and September palladium picked up $30.20 to $1,854.30 per ounce.


6/23/2022: Gold slides on Powell, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold gave up early gains to slide 0.5% and close under $1,830 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck an overtly hawkish stance in Congressional testimony, lifting the dollar and undercutting alternative stores of value.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell declared that the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation is “unconditional” even if aggressive tightening means risking higher unemployment and the possibility of recession.

Testifying before the Senate committee yesterday, Powell had been somewhat more moderate, suggesting that outsized rate hikes were not a certainty and the Fed is striving for a “soft landing.”

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals after Powell’s comments as traders speculated that additional rate hikes of 75 basis points are almost inevitable. A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Gold had rallied above $1,849 earlier in the session on deepening concerns about a global recession, only to change course under pressure from a crusading Fed Chair and a higher dollar.

The US services sector fell to a five-month low in June while the manufacturing sector slid to a two-year low, according to S&P PMI reports. Germany and France also posted weak PMI data for June.

Citigroup is now forecasting a near 50% probability of global recession, citing monetary tightening by major central banks as an “increasingly palpable risk” for global growth.

Oil prices fell sharply for a second day, dropping another 1.9% as traders bet that the slowing global economy will mean decreased demand. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Backstopping gold’s late-session slide, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated under 3.1% as investors flooded toward the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

The other precious metals were also lower, with silver losing 1.8% while platinum and palladium fell 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the Comex close: August gold slid $8.60 to $1,829.80; July silver fell 38 cents to $21.04; July platinum dropped $22.50 to $904.40; and September palladium slipped $13.80 to $1,824.10 per ounce.


6/22/2022: Gold eases as equities rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold inched down 40 cents to hold above $1,838 as rising risk appetite pressured safe-haven assets. The metal then rallied as high as $1,850 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured Congress that rate hikes will not be aggressive enough to tip the economy into recession.

Testifying before Congress, Powell pushed back on the contention that the Fed has increased to odds of a recession by raising interest rates, saying the economy is resilient enough to absorb them.

Powell emphasized that his goal is to engineer a “soft landing” and another hike of 75 basis points at the next Fed meeting is not certain.

Wall Street applauded Powell’s softened tone, lifting the Dow and S&P500 by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.8%. High flying growth and tech stocks suffer more from large rate hikes because their valuations rely heavily on future cash flows, which are reduced by higher borrowing costs.

The dollar pulled back 0.3% against major rivals, lifting gold and other commodities by making the less expensive in other currencies.

The other precious metals finished lower, with silver dropping 1.6% while platinum and palladium shed 1.3% each.

At the Comex close: August gold dipped 40 cents to $1,838.40; July silver shed 35 cents to $21.42; July platinum fell $12.60 to $926.90; and September palladium lost $24.80 to $1,837.90 an ounce.


6/21/2022: Gold dips on risk asset rebound

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold dipped 0.1% to close under $1,839 as a rebound in equities and an uptick in Treasury yields weighed on safe-havens assets.

After posting its worst week since 2020, Wall Street jumped higher as bargain-hunters returned to the market after the three-day weekend. Mega-cap growth and energy companies, hit hardest by last week’s selloff, led the way.

The risk rally came despite downbeat forecasts from prominent investment banks. Goldman Sachs said the US economy now has a 30% likelihood of falling into recession next year, up from 15% at its last forecast, and a 48% chance within two years. Morgan Stanley now puts the odds at 35% within the next 12 months.

Separately, economist Larry Summers warned yesterday that a recession destroying 10 million jobs will be required to get inflation under control. The former Treasury Secretary and current Harvard President was widely ignored last year when he warned that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan would lead to elevated inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pushed back over 3.3% as traders shifted toward risk assets, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Backstopping gold’s slide, the dollar lost 0.3% against major rivals led by the euro, which rallied after ECB officials affirmed plans to raise interest rates. A weaker dollar typically supports gold and other commodities by making the less expensive overseas.

The other precious metals were higher, with silver adding 0.8% while platinum and palladium rose 1% and 3.6%, respectively.

At the Comex close: August gold dipped $1.80 to $1,838.80; July silver added 18 cents, to $21.77; July platinum rose $9.30 to $939.50; and September palladium climbed $64 to $1,862.70 per ounce.


6/17/2022: Gold slips on oil, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold slipped 0.5% to close under $1,841 after tumbling oil prices and a sharp rebound in the dollar undercut alternative stores of value. The metal ended the week 1.9% lower, under pressure from monetary tightening by the Fed and other major central banks.

Oil prices plunged 6% to under $110.50 per barrel, the lowest in the month, on worries rising global interest rates and slowing global growth could cut energy demand. In addition, Russia signaled that it may increase oil exports despite sanctions, adding to market supplies.

Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

One day after tumbling 1.3% on a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank, the dollar recouped 1% after the Bank of Japan held rates unchanged and vowed to continue quantitative easing. The BOJ is swimming against the tide, with the Fed, Bank of England, and SNB all raising rates this week to combat inflation.

A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

The other precious metals were also lower for the day and week. Silver dropped 1.4% for a weekly decline of 1.6%. Platinum fell 2.2% today and 4.2% this week. Palladium shed 3.6% for the session and 5.7% for the week.

At the Comex close: August gold slid $9.30 to $1,840.60; July silver dropped 30 cents to $21.59; July platinum lost $20.90 to $930.20; and September palladium dumped $67.80 to $1,798.70 an ounce.

  

Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,813.34           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
Silver $19.99           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
Platinum $901.92           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
Palladium $2,014.62           Price Change Up Arrow $0.00
In US Dollars