AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

12/4/2025: Gold rises ahead of PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $4,212 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors bet on another rate cut from the Fed. Silver retreated 1.8% to finish at $56,85 an ounce.

Running counter to a recent slew of negative employment data, new jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 last week to 191,000, the lowest level since 2022. The number of people collecting ongoing benefits edged down slightly to 1.94 million but hovered near a post-pandemic high.

Earlier this week, ADP reported 33,000 jobs were lost last month in the private sector, marking the third month out of the past four in which the economy shed jobs. Other sources like ISM surveys and Beige Book reports indicated frozen hiring. But layoffs remain relatively muted, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labor market.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up on the news, limiting gold's gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders foresee an 87% likelihood that the Fed will reduce rates by a quarter-point when it meets next week. Tomorrow's release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures index, delayed by the government shutdown, should give a clearer sense of the Fed's plans.

Unless the PCE shows much higher inflation than expected in September, the dovish voices on the FOMC are likely to hold sway, given the recent emphasis by key Fed officials supporting the labor market.

Lower rates are typically bullish for gold because they reduce bond yields and weaken the dollar. A falling dollar makes gold and other commodities less expensive on other currencies, lifting demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.50 to $2,11.80; silver shed $1.07 to $56.85; platinum dipped $7 to $1,651.15; and palladium lot $24.90 to $1,451.90 an ounce.