AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

3/19/2026: Gold tumbles on rate worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 5.9% to close just above $4,600 as further escalations in the US war on Iran drove expectations of a global energy shock and higher interest rates from major central banks. Silver shed 8.2% to finish at $70.90 an ounce.

President Trump said he might "blow up" the world's biggest gas field at South Pars after Iranian missiles caused extensive damage to Qatar's core LNG processing operations at Ras Laffan. Iran has been targeting regional energy facilities in retaliation for the US-Israel attacks.

The conflict has ended much of the Middle East's production of natural gas, driving prices in Europe as much as 21% higher. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the passage of 20% of the global oil supply, prompting fears of severe oil shock if the war drags on.

In what would be a major new phase of the war, the Trump administration is considering the deployment of thousands of US troops to reinforce operations, according to a Reuters report.

Global benchmark Brent crude rose above $110 per barrel, the highest level in four years. Gasoline prices in the US have risen 30% in three weeks.

Central banks of the G7 nations meet separately this week. While all held interest rates steady, each stated its readiness to raise interest rates to combat the inflation shock expected from the Iran war.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Iran conflict has introduced "new inflation" into the economy, forcing the Fed to reconsider further rate cuts this year.

Global bonds sold off on the ubiquitously hawkish rate view, lifting yields. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium lost 6% and 5.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold tumbled $289.20 to $4,600.70; silver dropped $6.34 to $70.90; platinum retreated by $123.65 to $1,939.20; and palladium shed $83 to $1,449.35 an ounce.

3/18/2026: Gold falls on PPI, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.2% to close at a one-month low under $4,890 as rising wholesale inflation and the raging war in Iran dimmed the outlook for rate cuts from the Fed, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver shed 2.9% to finish at 77.24 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.7% in February, lifting the annualized wholesale inflation rate to 3.4% from 2.9% in January. It was the third straight monthly increase and the biggest in seven months. The core PPI, excluding fuel and food, rose 0.5% for an annualized rate of 3.5%

Notably, the readings were taken prior to the US attacks on Iran, which have pushed global oil prices over $100 and driven US gasoline prices up 30% in less than three weeks.

Fed fund futures traders now see inflation pressures preventing the Fed from cutting interest rates until late this year, if at all.

The odds that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year have risen from under 5% a month ago to 36% today, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood of just a single cut of 25 basis points by December, rather than two, has risen to 76% from less than 25% a month ago.

Meanwhile, the Fed's two-day meeting on policy ends today with almost universal expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. The question is whether they signal concern about rising inflation and the Iran war, and perhaps the need to suspend rate cuts indefinitely.

Adding to inflation worries, the US war on Iran shows no signs of de-escalating. In the first reported attack on Iran's energy infrastructure in the Gulf, the gigantic Pars gas field was hit today, prompting vows of retribution against the energy installations of neighboring countries.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed on the rising PPI and dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting overseas demand.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $111,10 to $4,889.90; silver shed $2.29 to $77.24; platinum dropped $60.50 to $2,062.85; and palladium lost $79.40 to $1,532.35 an ounce.

3/17/2026: Gold edges back over $5,000

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to $5,001 as oil climbed on the Iran war and the dollar and Treasury yields both fell ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates. Silver shed 0.9% to $79.53 an ounce.

Israel said it killed Iran's head of security, Ali Larijiani, in intensifying overnight airstrikes. Meanwhile, Iran renewed its attacks on the United Arab Emirates to prevent the loading of oil for export. And President Trump unsuccessfully petitioned allies for help unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil prices climbed another 2% to more than $105 per barrel as the US war on Iran shows no signs of stopping. The new Ayatollah has reportedly rejected any overtures of de-escalation, demanding that the US and Israel be "brought to their knees."

Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped back toward 4.2% as investors shifted into the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar retreated for a second session, losing 0.2% against major rivals led by the Swiss franc ahead of decisions on interest rates by several major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. All are expected to hold rates unchanged, but traders will be watching for mentions about inflation expectations because of the Iran war.

Platinum rose 1.6% while palladium inched up less than 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $7 to $5,001; silver slid 73 cents to $79.53; platinum picked up $33.85 to 2,13335; and palladium added $1, to $1,611.75 an ounce.

3/16/2026: Gold slips under $5,000 an ounce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 1.2% to close at $4,994 despite a weaker dollar as inflation expectations because of the Iran war undermined bets on rate cuts from the Fed. Silver shed 0.8% to finish at $80.26 an ounce.

The dollar fell 0.6% against major rivals, in part on profit-taking after reaching a 10-month high last Friday, in part on falling oil prices because of hopes for a reopening on the Strait of Hormuz.

Typically, a weaker dollar provides a boost to gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, lifting demand overseas. But the US war on Iran has created atypical market conditions.

Oil prices retreated 5% today after President Trump called on allies to help the US reopen the Straits, potentially allowing 20% of the world's oil production to reenter the market. Gold often trades in sympathy with gold as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

But oil prices have risen 16% so far this year, with most of the increase coming in past three weeks because of the Middle East war. More inflation is expected as the war drags on.

Fed funds futures traders were pricing-in 65 basis points in cuts this year, beginning in June. But that was before the US attacked Iran. Now projections are for just 24 basis points, with odds growing that the next move will be a rate hike. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets this week.

Gold thrives in lower interest rate environments because it offers no yield. But it is also seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and loss of purchasing power through inflation, both of which have helped it to gain 16% this year.

Platinum and palladium both fell 1.2%

At the New York spot close: gold fell $58.50 to $4,995; silver slid 65 cents to $80.26; platinum picked up $42.95 to $2,089.50; and palladium rose $32.90 to $1,610.75 an ounce.

3/13/2026: Gold slides for a second week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.2% to close under $5,053 as Treasury yields and the dollar continued to climb on inflation concerns, rising oil prices, and the Iran war. Bullion slid 1.8% for the week, its second straight weekly decline. Silver dropped 4.4% to finish at $80.91 an ounce, notching a weekly loss of 3.5%.

The US stepped up its bombardment of Iran to unprecedented levels as the conflict hit the two-week mark. President Trump said the US will be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week" as he tries to force the new Ayatollah Khamenei to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to oil shipping.

Global benchmark Brent crude added another 0.6% to more than $101 per barrel as the Iran war has taken producers offline and interrupted global oil flow.

Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment fell to a three-month low as fears mount about the war's impact on gasoline prices. The nationwide average has risen nearly 60 cents, to more than $3.50 per gallon, since the bombing began.

Commerce Department data released today showed inflation was sticky even before the oil shock. The core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% in January to an annualized 3.1%, up from 3% in January.

Against this backdrop, bond traders have all but priced out any rate cuts this year and are factoring in the possibility of a rate hike instead.

The dollar rose another 0.6% against major rivals, hitting a four-month high on global flights to safety and worries that energy-inflation will keep interest rates high. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.3% on the shifting inflation and interest rate outlook, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

While gold has experienced significant corrections over the past two weeks because of the sharply higher dollar, its fundamentals remain solid. Aggressive central banks continue adding gold to their currency reserves to offset dollar risk because of uncertainty about US trade, fiscal, and foreign policies. And geopolitical turmoil continues to drive retail investor demand.

Platinum lost 4.9% today and 4.6% this week. Palladium dropped 3.5% for a weekly decline of 3.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $63.30 to $5,052.50; silver shed $3.76 to $80.91; platinum lost $1.05.50 to $2,046.55; and palladium declined by $56.40 to $1,577.85 an ounce.

3/12/2026: Gold slips on oil, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 1% to close under $5,116 as the escalating Iran war stoked fears of an energy crisis, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar on expectations that higher inflation will prevent the Fed from reducing interest rates. Silver slipped 0.5% to finish at $84.67 an ounce.

After Iran set two tankers ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, the new Ayatollah Mojtabi Khamenei, hardliner son of the assassinated Supreme Leader, said he will keep the Strait closed to avenge the attacks on his country. He reiterated that the world should prepare for oil at $200 per barrel.

Around 20% of global oil production flows through the Strait, which is reportedly being mined by Iran, something that is easy to do and hard to prevent. US benchmark WTI crude surged 10% to more than $96 while global benchmark Brent crude surpassed $101 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs warned today that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak, when Brent rallied to $147.50, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Bond traders are no longer pricing-in any rate cuts this year because of higher inflation expectation fuel by rising oil prices and the Iran war. The Bank of England and the ECB are now expected to raise interest rates later this year rather than cutting them, as had been previously projected.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose on the hawkish rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar added 0.5% against major rivals on flights to safety and expectations that interest rates will remain high. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $51.60 to $5,115.80; silver slid 40 cents to $84.67; platinum dropped $31 io $2m152.05; and palladium retreated by $17.70 to $1,634.25 an ounce.

3/11/2026: Gold slips on rising yields, dollar

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 1.2% to close under $5,168 as the escalating US war on Iran stoked concerns about a spike in energy inflation, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields. Silver shed 4.5% to finish at $85.07 an ounce.

Iran intensified its attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for 20% of the world's oil, and warned that the world should be prepared for oil prices of $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, President Trump upped his warlike rhetoric, saying the US could begin striking more targets in Iran.

US benchmark WTI crude rose 4.6% while Brent crude prices hit $93 per barrel as the Middle East conflict threatens to paralyze the global oil trade and ignite am energy price shock reminiscent of the 1970s.

The average gasoline price jumped above $3.50 nationwide, more than 50 cents higher than before the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The CPI for February rose 0.3%, as expected, suggesting that inflation might have been stabilizing before the Iran war.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed well past 4.2% on expectations that oil inflation will keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yield, the dollar rose 0.4% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.9% and 2.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $62.30 to $5,167.40; silver shed $4.02 to $85.07; platinum dropped $42.60 to $2,183.05; and palladium lost $42.40 to $1,641.85 an ounce.

3/10/2026: Gold gains as oil tumbles

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 2.7% to close near $5,230 as oil prices plunged and the dollar weakened after President Trump lifted sanctions against some oil producers and signaled a possible end to the US war on Iran. Silver surged 6% to finish at $89.08 an ounce.

Trump announced that the US is waving oil-related sanctions against some nations to ease the price of oil, which surged to a three-year high above $120 per barrel because of the war. While the President did not name the countries, he reportedly spoke with Vladimir Putin on Monday, suggesting that Russian sanctions will be lifted.

Trump also said the war on Iran would end "very soon." But senior military officials including Pete Hesgeth quickly refuted this notion, declaring the war will continue until Iran "is total and decisively defeated." Meanwhile, Israel and the US conducted their most intensive attacks yet.

Still, the markets chose hope. US benchmark WTI crude plunged nearly 15% on the loosened sanctions and prospect, however feeble, of an end to the war, and all three major US stock indexes rose more than 0.5%.

Tracking oil, the dollar lost 0.6% against major rivals on expectations that an energy-related spike in inflation may yet be averted. A falling dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $138.20 to $5,229.70; silver surged $5.05 to $89.08; platinum picked up $61.60 to $2,225.65; and palladium rose $22 to $1,684.25 an ounce.

3/9/2026: Gold eases as dollar rises

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.1% to close under $5,092 as the widening US war on Iran fueled global flights to liquidity, lifting the dollar and pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver added 0.3% to finish at $84.03 an ounce.

Over the weekend, Iran chose hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated Ayatollah Khamenei, as its new supreme leader. The move dashed hopes that a softer reformist government would emerge from the ashes and shorten the war.

Oils prices surged another 4.5% on the prospect that a protracted Middle East war could push the world into an energy crisis, fueling higher inflation and potential recession. Saudi oil production was cut, adding to higher prices, because shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are all but blocked.

President Trump said oil prices over $100 are "a small price to pay for peace and safety."

The dollar rose 0.2% against major rivals, pressuring gold by making it pricier overseas.

Platinum and palladium added 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: Gold fell $54.60 to $5,091.50; silver rose 22 cents to $84.02; platinum picked up $19.20 to $2,164.05; and palladium added $20.30, to $1,662.25 an ounce.

3/6/2026: Gold rises on weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1.6% to close above $5,230 after extremely weak jobs data revived hopes for further rate cuts while the escalating US war on Iran stoked safe-haven buying. Bullion still lost 1.6% for the week after five straight weekly gains. Silver rose 2.6% today but shed 1.1% this week.

The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, driving the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. The unexpected weak payrolls report, coming just as the Iran war fuels sharply higher energy prices and inflation expectations, complicates the outlook for further rate cuts from the Fed.

President Trump declared that the US is not negotiating with Iran and will settle for nothing less than unconditional surrender. Meanwhile, Israel—acting with the US—intensified its bombardment Iran and Lebanon, focusing on Beirut's southern suburbs.

US benchmark WTI crude soared another 12% to more than $90 a barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, chokepoint for 20% of the global oil supply, has come to a near-total halt. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy related inflation.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals as other safe-haven currencies rebounded but still enjoyed its best week in over a year, pressuring gold by making it more expensive overseas.

Platinum rose 1.7% today but fell 1% this week. Palladium added 1.3% for a weekly decline of 3.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $80.80 to $5,146.10; silver rose $2.13 to $83.82; platinum picked up $36.80 to $2,144.85; and palladium added $21.75, to $1,641.95 an ounce.