AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

10/31/2025: Gold notches 4% October gain

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.6% to close under $3,983 as the dollar climbed to a three-month high on a hawkish rate view from the Fed. Bullion still gained 4% in October for its third straight monthly rise. Silver fell 1.6% to finish at $47.21, posting a monthly rise of 1.7%.

Jeff Schmidt of the Kansas City Fed and Beth Hammock of the Cleveland Dallas Fed publicly outlined their reasons for dissenting against this week's rate cut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated today that she “did not see a need to cut rates this week.” All three Fed officials pointed to rising inflation as the main reason.

The vocal opposition to the Fed's October cut comes two days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, in post-meeting remarks on Wednesday, that another rate cut in December is "is not a foregone conclusion."

Fed fund futures traders now put the odds of a quarter-point cut in December at 60%, down from 92% earlier this week.

The dollar rose 0.3% to reach a three-month high on the shifting rate view. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, curtailing demand overseas.

Despite an 8% pullback from its recent all-time high above $4,336, gold is up 50% this year behind geopolitical tension, simmering trade wars, and aggressive purchases by central banks.

Platinum fell 2.1% today and 3.1% this month. Palladium shed 0.4% for a monthly decline of 11.5%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $23.35 to $3,982.20; silver shed 76 cents to $47.99; platinum dropped 33.65 to $1,576.15; and palladium dipped %.80 to $1,444.75 an ounce.

10/30/2025: Gold rises after China trade deal

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close above $4,005 despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar after the trade deal between US and China delivered modest outcomes and lingering uncertainty. Silver rose 1.7% to finish at $48.75 an ounce.

The highly anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi established a one-year agreement in which China would resume soybean purchases and delay restrictions of rare earth exports, while the US would not impose additional 100% tariffs and reduce existing tariffs to 47% from 57%.

While the deal did nothing to amplify trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies, it also did little to create a long-term framework of cooperation.

Gold rose on the prospect of continuing uncertainty. Rare earths are crucial for advanced tech applications like semiconductors and smart phones. China holds a virtually monopoly on them, leaving the US and US tech firms at a major structural disadvantage.

Limiting gold's rise, the dollar rallied 0.3% to a three-month high after Jerome Powell cast doubt on a December rate cut after yesterday's Fed meeting, saying it was "by no means a done deal." Fed funds futures traders lowered the odds to 60% from 92% before the remarks.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold by making it more expensive in other currencies.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rose on the hawkish outlook, pushing back up to nearly 4.1%. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium added 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $26.90 to $4,005.55; silver rose 82 cents to $48.75; platinum picked up $18.30 to $1,609.75; and palladium advanced $33.20 to $1,450.55 an ounce.

10/29/2025: Gold gains on lower rates

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $3,978 despite upticks in yields and the dollar after the Fed reduced interest rates and President Trump announced a likely trade deal with South Korea. Silver surged 1.7% to finish at $47.93 an ounce.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The decision was unanimous except for two dissenters, one seeking deeper cuts and one advocating no cuts at all.

In his post-meeting remarks, Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated that downside risks to the labor market currently outweigh the risks of higher inflation, suggesting additional cuts may come this year. However, he emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion."

Fed fund futures traders reduced the odds of a quarter-point cut in December to 69% from 91% before Powell's remarks.

The dollar added 0.1% against major rivals, limiting gold's rise by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4%. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

President Trump said he is finalizing a trade deal that will lower tariffs on South Korean imports in exchange for cash payments and investments by South Korea into the US economy. He also sounded an optimistic note on his upcoming meeting with China's Xi Jinping.

Platinum inched up less than 0.1% and palladium picked up 0.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.45 to $3,978.65; silver surged 80 cents to $47.93; platinum added 40 cents, to $1,591.45; and palladium rose $12 to $1,417.35 an ounce.

10/28/2025: Gold slides for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its pullback to a third session, New York spot gold slid 0.9% to close near $3,966 as appetite for safe havens was suppressed by hopes for a trade deal between the US and China. Silver gained 0.8% to finish at $47.13 an ounce.

President Trump and China's President Xi are scheduled to meet on Thursday to discuss ways to end trade tensions. Over the weekend, top US and China economic officials reportedly finalized a framework that could prevent additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and reduce restrictions on crucial rare earth exports from China, among other things.

Wall Street cheered the prospect for a second session, pushing global shares into record territory. The Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5% while the Nasdaq gained 1%.

The whetted risk appetite came despite soft US data. The Conference Board reported consumer confident fell to a six-month low as Americans fret about the job market. In its new weekly reporting format, ADP said private payrolls grew an average of 14,250 per week over the past month, which translates to a modest monthly increase of just 57,000 jobs.

Still, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to nearly 4% as investors shifted out of safe havens. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar dipped 0.1% ahead of tomorrow's conclusion of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy, which is almost universally expected to produce another quarter-point rate cut. Lower rates pressure the dollar and lift gold.

Despite its recent correction, gold has risen more than 51% this year behind geopolitical turmoil, US fiscal instability, global shifts away from the dollar, and aggressive central bank purchases. These drivers are expected to continue well into the new year and beyond.

Platinum added 0.8% while palladium subtracted 0.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $35.70 to $3,966.20; silver rose 36 cents to $47.13; platinum picked up $12.5 to $1,590.85; and palladium slipped $8.30 to $1,405.35 an ounce.

10/27/2025: Gold falls on China trade hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.8% to close under $4,002 as the prospect of a trade deal between the US and China stoked risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Silver shed 3.8% to finish at $46.56 an ounce.

President Trump said today that a trade deal with China "is virtually done and should be well-received by the markets." While no details have been forthcoming, the framework is expected to prevent the additional 100% tariffs Trump threatened recently and the restriction in rare-earth exports signaled by China, in addition to other changes.

The President meets with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday to further discuss a trade accord.

All three major US stock indexes rallied on optimism that a damaging new phase in the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be prevented. The Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.7%.

While some of the trade-anxiety premium has drained from the gold price since it hit an all-time high above $4,336 last week, bullion remains supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive central bank buying, and expectations of rate cuts from the Fed when it meets this week.

Platinum and palladium dropped 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York close: gold fell $116.50 to $4,001,90; silver shed $1,82 to $46.56; platinum dropped $29.45 to $1,578.40; and palladium lost $24.10 to $1,413.65 an ounce.

10/24/2025: Gold dips on CPI, risk appetite

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% to close under $4,119 after softer-than-expected consumer inflation and other upbeat US economic data boosted risk appetite, pressuring safe-haven assets. Bullion slipped 2.9% for the week after nine straight weekly climbs as investors took profits from all-time high prices. Silver slid 1.6% to $48.38, ending the week with a loss of 1.6%.

The Consumer Price Index for September rose 0.3%, pulling the 12-month inflation rate down to 3% from 3.1% in August. Lower prices for travel and hospitality helped to offset tariff-driven higher prices on imports, appliances, furniture, and other goods.

The soft CPI all but guarantees a rate cut from the Fed when it meets next week, followed by another in December.

Separately, S&P flash PMI surveys showed the US serves sector growing by the most in three months, while manufacturing also expanded at a slower pace. But high tariffs are hurting exports, according to the survey, and business sentiment for the upcoming year has deteriorated.

Wall Street cheered the upbeat data and prospect of lower interest rates, with all three major US stock indexes rising more than 1%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar were little changed.

Gold reached a new all-time above $3,336 on Monday as $4,336, as rate-cut hopes and economic uncertainty spurred safe-haven inflows. But it tumbled 5% on Tuesday after upbeat earnings on Wall Street and optimism about trade with China spurred risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits.

Platinum rose 1.3% today and 0.4% this week, while palladium fell 1.2% for a weekly loss of 2.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $7.10 to $4,118.40; silver slid 11 cents to $48.38; platinum picked up $20.75 to $1,608.35; and palladium shed $17.20 to $1,437.75 an ounce.

10/23/2025: Gold rebounds on geo tensions

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded 2% to close above $4,125 on bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying after President Trump escalated geopolitical tensions with Russian and China. Silver surged 2.1% to finish at $48,48 an ounce.

Displeased with Putin's refusal to end the Ukraine War, Trump placed sanctions against Russia for the first time during his second term, focusing on major oil companies.

Oil prices jumped 5% on the Russia sanctions, adding impetus to gold's rebound after its two-day correction of more than 6% from Monday's record-high finish above $4,336. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Separately, the White House is considering new plans to curtail exports of software to China in retaliation for Beijing's restriction of crucial rare earth exports. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet next week in South Korea to discuss trade.

JPMorgan lifted its gold forecast this week, projecting prices will reach an average of $5,055 an ounce by Q4 next year. Rate cuts, stagflation worries, concerns over Fed independence, and global de-dollarization were all cited reasons in a note to clients.

Platinum and palladium gained 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $81.10 to $4,125.50; silver surged $1.02 to $48.48; platinum picked up $51.60 to $1,587.60; and palladium advanced $36.70 to $1,454,95 n ounce.

10/22/2025: Gold extends slide ahead of CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending yesterday's price correction, New York spot gold slipped another 1.7% to finish under $4,045 as traders continued to take profits from Monday's all-time high of $4,336.40 ahead of this week's delayed release of the September CPI. Silver slid 1.7% to $47.46 an ounce.

After rallying more than 60% this year—and a whopping 20% since the Fed initiated a rate-cut cycle in late September—bullion fell 5% yesterday in what most analysts viewed as necessary correction, removing some speculative froth from a healthy bull market.

Sell-off momentum continued today, with investors recalibrating in advance of Friday's release of the consumer price index for September. Although delayed and missing some data components because of the government shutdown, the CPI is expected to provide additional clues to the Fed's upcoming rate moves.

While rekindled inflation from trade wars is certainly a concern for the Fed, jobs are perhaps a bigger worry after weak nonfarm payrolls reports over the summer. Layoffs remain low, but hiring has essentially dried up, leaving the labor market vulnerable to a sharp downturn.

Fed funds futures traders expect the central bank to step in, putting the odds of a quarter-point cut next week at 98%, followed by another in December. But sharply higher inflation could easily change that calculus.

Platinum and palladium slid 1% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $71.85 to $4,044.40; silver fell $1.19 to $47.46; platinum lost $15.95 to $1,536; and palladium retreated $21.85 to $1,418.25 an ounce.

10/21/2025: Gold tumbles on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 5% to close under $4,117 after upbeat earnings on Wall Street and optimism about trade with China spurred risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits from bullion's epic rally. Silver shed 4.8% to $48.65 an ounce.

Strong earnings from non-tech blue chips rekindled risk appetite, lifting the Dow 0.6% as corporate giants like GM, 3M, and Coca-Cola delivered stronger-than-expected profits. Tech shares didn’t share in the sentiment, despite the recent outperformance of AI-related companies.

So far this month, 87% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates. Aggregate Q3 earnings are projected to grow 9.2% year-on-year, according to LSEG data.

Adding to risk appetite, President Trump said he expects to achieve a "fair deal" with Chinese President Xi Jinping as negotiations proceed over tariffs and rare earth exports.

The dollar added 0.3% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Gold has risen 60% this year behind intensifying geopolitical and economic uncertainty, aggressive central bank purchases, strong Chinese demand, and global de-dollarization. Most analysts see today's correction as overdue to remove some of the speculative froth out of the market.

Platinum and palladium lost 5% and 4.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $220.20 to $4,116.25; silver shed $2.47 to $48.65; platinum dropped $82.95 to $1,551.95; and palladium retreated $69.40 to $1,440.10 an ounce.

10/20/2025: Gold jumps 3.5% on uncertainty

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded strongly, jumping 3.5% to close above $4,336, as rate-cut hopes and economic uncertainty spurred safe-haven inflows following last Friday's correction. Silver surged 2.4% to finish at $51.12 an ounce.

After reaching a new intraday record above $4,378 on Friday, gold pulled back under $4,242 by the session's close when President Trump said his additional 100% tariffs on China were "not sustainable."

But as today's aggressive rebound indicates, concerns about trade wars with China are not the only driver behind bullion's epic rally. After nearly three weeks, the US government shutdown appears no close to ending. Key economic data has been delayed, leaving investors struggling to make sense of markets that seem both fragile and overbought.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Fed will meet next week to set monetary policy in something of a data vacuum, without the latest information on inflation and the health of the labor market.

Against this backdrop, Fed funds futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at 99%, with another coming in December. Lower rates lift gold by lowering yields and weakening the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity costs for holding it and making it cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 2% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $146.50 to $4,336.40; silver climbed $1.26 to $51.12; platinum picked up $32.60 to $1,634.90; and palladium advance $28.60 to $1,509.55 an ounce.