AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

3/27/2026: Precious metals decouple from global liquidity selloff

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Precious metals gained over 2% on Friday, supported by safe-haven buying, while US equity markets continued their decline lower. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium all moved higher while the DOW, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all tumbled lower. Today’s price action is one of the first clear market signals that precious metals are decoupling from their recent strong correlation to the broader global liquidity driven selloff that has weighed on most asset classes since the start of the war against Iran.

After Thursday’s NY market close President Trump extended the order to suspend the US bombardment of Iran energy facilities another 10-days until April 6 to allow further communications between Iran and the US to take place. Overnight, however, attacks against Iran by the US and Israel continued with Iran reciprocating. Today Reuters reported that despite the heavy pace of U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran has demonstrated that it has not run out of weapons. On ?Thursday alone, it fired fifteen ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, along with eleven drones, according to the UAE's Defense Ministry.

With no clear resolution in sight, and rising concerns of deeper U.S. involvement, global markets are pricing in a prolonged conflict. Brent crude surged 3% overnight to just over $110 per barrel. The DOW and S&P 500 fell another 1.5%, while the NASDAQ fell 2.0%. The dollar gained modestly, 27 basis points, to 100.17 on the US dollar index. Yields on the US 10-year treasury were steady at 4.44%.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $134.03 to $4,509.53; silver gained $1.87 to $69.54; platinum rose $34.51 to $1,872.10; and palladium rebounded $49.64 to $1,390.94 an ounce.

3/26/2026: Gold tumbles on higher oil

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 3.8% to close under $4,376 after President Trump threatened to intensify attacks on Iran, driving up oil prices and dashing hopes that a quick end to the war could prevent higher inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates. Silver shed 6.5% to finish at $67.67 an ounce.

Mixing his messages, Trump said today that Iran is "begging to work out a deal." But he also admitted that a ceasefire agreement might not be possible if Iran does not "get serious." In the meantime, US-Israel attacks on Iran will intensify, he said, suggesting that there will be no immediate conclusion to the one-month war.

Global benchmark Brent crude jumped nearly 6% to $108 per barrel on the statements, stoking concerns that an energy shock will fuel global inflation and higher interest rates from the Fed and other major central banks.

Gold typically trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation. But the US war on Iran has scrambled this correlation by increasing the likelihood that the Fed will no longer reduce interest rates this year, as expected before the attacks, and could even raise them.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose on the shifting outlook for inflation and interest rates, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, undermining global demand.

Platinum and palladium lost 5.8% and 5.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $174.30 to $4,375.50; silver shed $4.69 to $67.67; platinum dropped $112.70 to $1,833.45; and palladium slid $76.80 to $1,353.85 an ounce.

3/25/2026: Gold surges on peace hopes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 3.4% to close near $4,550 after the US submitted a ceasefire proposal to Iran, raising hopes for a conclusion to the war. Oil prices pulled back on the prospect, lowering inflation expectations and bringing bargain-hunters back to the bullion market. Silver jumped 4.4% to finish at $72.36 an ounce.

The US reportedly offered a 15-point peace proposal, using Pakistan as an intermediary. Initially rejecting the plan, Iran said it will nonetheless review it while showing no signs of reducing its drone and missile strikes in the region.

Global benchmark Brent crude fell 7% on the proposal before recovering slightly to $101 per barrel after Iran's rejection. But the fact that the Trump administration is actively seeking a way out has raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields declined on the prospect that reducing energy inflation could bring rate cuts from the Fed later this year. Lower yields boost gold by reducing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium added 2.2% and 4.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $150.50 to $4,549.50; silver surged $3.08 to $72.36; platinum picked up $41.60 to $1,946.15; and palladium rose $19.40 to $1,430.645 an ounce.

3/24/2026: Gold closes under $4,400

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $4,400 for the first time since early January as Treasury yields and the dollar rose on renewed concerns that a protracted war in the Middle East will increase inflation. It was bullion's ninth loss in 10 sessions. Silver also slid 0.5% to finish at $69.27 an ounce.

The US government announced today that it will send 3,000 army troops from the elite 82nd Airborne division to the Middle East to provide military options for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait has blocked 20% of the global oil supply, causing prices to spike 30% higher.

The escalation involving US troops on the ground belies President Trump's announcement yesterday that the US and Iran are engages in "good and very productive talks" that will lead to a "complete and total resolution of hostilities," something Iran has completely denied.

The month-long war on Iran is already damaging the US economy, according to data released today from S&P Global. Business activity has slowed to an 11-month low as the war has raised prices for energy and other inputs.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to nearly 4.4% on the Middle East escalation and expectation that energy prices will remain higher for longer. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum rose 1.7% while palladium fell 1.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $22.75 to $4,399.30; silver slid 0.5% 35 cents to $69.27; platinum picked up $32.60 to $1,904.55; and palladium lost $24.30 to $1,411.25 an ounce.

3/23/2026: Gold retreats in volatile trade

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 3.2% to close near $4,422 in volatile trade after President Trump announced productive talks with Iran and the temporary cessation of strikes against Iranian energy facilities. Silver rose 0.4% to finish at $$69.62 an ounce.

Extending its long liquidation, gold fell to a four-month low early in the session, driven by a hawkish interest rate outlook because of the US war on Iran. Sharply higher oil prices have fueled sharply higher inflation expectations, prompting traders price-in a possible rate hike later this year, rather than two rate cuts previously expected.

Higher interest rates lift yields and the dollar, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds, and by making it more expensive on other currencies, thereby limiting overseas demand.

But Trump surprised the markets by announcing productive talks with Iran over a possible ceasefire, along with an order to suspend temporarily the US bombardment of Iran energy facilities.

Global benchmark Brent crude promptly dropped 8% and the dollar lost 0.4% on the Trump comments, lifting gold from a four-month low of $4,355 to over $4,512.

But Iranian officials quickly denied the reality of the talks, causing markets to whipsaw and gold to retreat $150 to under $4,430.

Platinum fell 3.7% while palladium rose 0.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $148.35 to $4,422.05; silver added 26 cents, $69.62; platinum shed $72.50 to $1,871.95; and palladium picked up $10.75 to $1,435.55 an ounce.

3/20/2026: Gold has worst week since 2011

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped another 0.7% to close under $1,471 as Treasury yields and the dollar climbed on reports that the US is sending troops to the Middle East, adding to inflation expectations and fears about rate hikes. Bullion lost 9.5% for the week, its worst since 2011. Silver shed 2.2% to finish at $69.36 for a weekly decline of 14.3%.

CBS and Reuters reported that the US is preparing to send thousands of Marines to the Middle East in a major escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran has refused to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, passageway for one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas, until attacks stop.

Oil prices continued to climb on the reduced supply and intensification of the hostilities. Global benchmark Brest crude has risen 7% this week and almost 50% since the war began, generating an energy shock that is expected to fuel global inflation.

In response, according to Bloomberg, bond traders have increased their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates by October to more than 50%. Two weeks ago, they were betting on 63 basis points in rate cuts by year end.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose toward 4.3% on the increasingly hawkish interest rate outlook. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yield the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Despite the major price correction that has been triggered by the war and changing interest-rate expectations, gold remains up 6% so far this year. Most analysts expect the bull market to continue once the rate view stabilizes, driven by growing geopolitical uncertainty, unsustainable US debt, global de-dollarization, and bullion's traditional role as an inflation hedge.

Platinum added 0.3% today but still lost $5 this week. Palladium fell 1.7% for a weekly decline of 9.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $30.30 to $4,570.40; silver slid $1.54 to $69.36; platinum added $5.25, to $1,944.45; and palladium lost $24.55 to $1,424.85 an ounce.

3/19/2026: Gold tumbles on rate worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 5.9% to close just above $4,600 as further escalations in the US war on Iran drove expectations of a global energy shock and higher interest rates from major central banks. Silver shed 8.2% to finish at $70.90 an ounce.

President Trump said he might "blow up" the world's biggest gas field at South Pars after Iranian missiles caused extensive damage to Qatar's core LNG processing operations at Ras Laffan. Iran has been targeting regional energy facilities in retaliation for the US-Israel attacks.

The conflict has ended much of the Middle East's production of natural gas, driving prices in Europe as much as 21% higher. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the passage of 20% of the global oil supply, prompting fears of severe oil shock if the war drags on.

In what would be a major new phase of the war, the Trump administration is considering the deployment of thousands of US troops to reinforce operations, according to a Reuters report.

Global benchmark Brent crude rose above $110 per barrel, the highest level in four years. Gasoline prices in the US have risen 30% in three weeks.

Central banks of the G7 nations met separately this week. While all held interest rates steady, each stated its readiness to raise interest rates to combat the inflation shock expected from the Iran war.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Iran conflict has introduced "new inflation" into the economy, forcing the Fed to reconsider further rate cuts this year.

Global bonds sold off on the ubiquitously hawkish rate view, lifting yields. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium lost 6% and 5.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold tumbled $289.20 to $4,600.70; silver dropped $6.34 to $70.90; platinum retreated by $123.65 to $1,939.20; and palladium shed $83 to $1,449.35 an ounce.

3/18/2026: Gold falls on PPI, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.2% to close at a one-month low under $4,890 as rising wholesale inflation and the raging war in Iran dimmed the outlook for rate cuts from the Fed, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver shed 2.9% to finish at 77.24 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.7% in February, lifting the annualized wholesale inflation rate to 3.4% from 2.9% in January. It was the third straight monthly increase and the biggest in seven months. The core PPI, excluding fuel and food, rose 0.5% for an annualized rate of 3.5%

Notably, the readings were taken prior to the US attacks on Iran, which have pushed global oil prices over $100 and driven US gasoline prices up 30% in less than three weeks.

Fed fund futures traders now see inflation pressures preventing the Fed from cutting interest rates until late this year, if at all.

The odds that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year have risen from under 5% a month ago to 36% today, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood of just a single cut of 25 basis points by December, rather than two, has risen to 76% from less than 25% a month ago.

Meanwhile, the Fed's two-day meeting on policy ends today with almost universal expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. The question is whether they signal concern about rising inflation and the Iran war, and perhaps the need to suspend rate cuts indefinitely.

Adding to inflation worries, the US war on Iran shows no signs of de-escalating. In the first reported attack on Iran's energy infrastructure in the Gulf, the gigantic Pars gas field was hit today, prompting vows of retribution against the energy installations of neighboring countries.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed on the rising PPI and dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting overseas demand.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $111,10 to $4,889.90; silver shed $2.29 to $77.24; platinum dropped $60.50 to $2,062.85; and palladium lost $79.40 to $1,532.35 an ounce.

3/17/2026: Gold edges back over $5,000

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to $5,001 as oil climbed on the Iran war and the dollar and Treasury yields both fell ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates. Silver shed 0.9% to $79.53 an ounce.

Israel said it killed Iran's head of security, Ali Larijiani, in intensifying overnight airstrikes. Meanwhile, Iran renewed its attacks on the United Arab Emirates to prevent the loading of oil for export. And President Trump unsuccessfully petitioned allies for help unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil prices climbed another 2% to more than $105 per barrel as the US war on Iran shows no signs of stopping. The new Ayatollah has reportedly rejected any overtures of de-escalation, demanding that the US and Israel be "brought to their knees."

Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped back toward 4.2% as investors shifted into the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar retreated for a second session, losing 0.2% against major rivals led by the Swiss franc ahead of decisions on interest rates by several major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. All are expected to hold rates unchanged, but traders will be watching for mentions about inflation expectations because of the Iran war.

Platinum rose 1.6% while palladium inched up less than 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $7 to $5,001; silver slid 73 cents to $79.53; platinum picked up $33.85 to 2,13335; and palladium added $1, to $1,611.75 an ounce.

3/16/2026: Gold slips under $5,000 an ounce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 1.2% to close at $4,994 despite a weaker dollar as inflation expectations because of the Iran war undermined bets on rate cuts from the Fed. Silver shed 0.8% to finish at $80.26 an ounce.

The dollar fell 0.6% against major rivals, in part on profit-taking after reaching a 10-month high last Friday, in part on falling oil prices because of hopes for a reopening on the Strait of Hormuz.

Typically, a weaker dollar provides a boost to gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, lifting demand overseas. But the US war on Iran has created atypical market conditions.

Oil prices retreated 5% today after President Trump called on allies to help the US reopen the Straits, potentially allowing 20% of the world's oil production to reenter the market. Gold often trades in sympathy with gold as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

But oil prices have risen 16% so far this year, with most of the increase coming in past three weeks because of the Middle East war. More inflation is expected as the war drags on.

Fed funds futures traders were pricing-in 65 basis points in cuts this year, beginning in June. But that was before the US attacked Iran. Now projections are for just 24 basis points, with odds growing that the next move will be a rate hike. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets this week.

Gold thrives in lower interest rate environments because it offers no yield. But it is also seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and loss of purchasing power through inflation, both of which have helped it to gain 16% this year.

Platinum and palladium both fell 1.2%

At the New York spot close: gold fell $58.50 to $4,995; silver slid 65 cents to $80.26; platinum picked up $42.95 to $2,089.50; and palladium rose $32.90 to $1,610.75 an ounce.