AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

5/15/2026: Yields spike on inflation worries, gold sharply lower

Source: Jim Wyckoff, American Gold Exchange

Austin —

Global bond markets sell off amid problematic inflation concerns. Traders and investors are shedding government bonds around the world, “propelling borrowing costs to multi-year highs from Japan to the U.S. amid intensifying fears that war-driven inflation will force central banks to pursue higher interest rates,” reported Bloomberg today. In the U.S., the yield on two-year Treasuries climbed to 4.06%, a level not seen since March 2025. Japan’s 30-year yield hit 4% for the first time since 1999. A political crisis in the U.K. lifted 30-year gilt yields to a 28-year high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $104.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.5%.

Gold and silver prices are posting strong losses near midday Friday. Concerns are growing regarding problematic global inflation as the U.S.-Iran was has spiked energy prices and prompted world supply chain disruptions. A higher U.S. dollar index that today hit a five-week high is also a bearish “outside-market” element for the precious metals markets to end the trading week. Gold and silver markets are both headed for technically bearish weekly low closes today. At midday, June gold was last down $127.00 at $4,557.30. July silver prices were down $7.768 at $77.56.

Weak rupee prompts India’s government to restrict gold imports. India’s gold imports are slowing to a trickle as banks and bullion traders grapple with new restrictions aimed at shoring up a weak rupee battered by the Middle East war. “An increased import duty and a curb on volumes have strained gold flows into the world’s second biggest bullion consumer. Domestic prices do not currently reflect the additional costs as some speculators offload their existing stockpiles into the marketplace. However, immediate demand is likely to stay low, according to analysts and traders,” Bloomberg reported today. “The duty increase dwarfs a 4 to 6% increase in local prices. That means it is not currently viable to import and sell — though the gap between the import cost and local prices will reduce over time, said Sunil Kashyap, managing director of FinMet Pte Ltd,” said the report. India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, more than doubled gold and silver tariffs to 15% on Wednesday, as part of a swathe of austerity measures to cushion the economy from the inflationary shock caused by energy disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The nation further tightened rules on Thursday, requiring bullion imports by jewelers and manufacturers under tax-exempted status to be capped to a maximum of 100 kilograms per license. Subsequent imports would be issued only after 50% is exported.

SF Holding Co. is set to open a gold vault in Hong Kong to tap demand for storage as the city pushes forward with plans to become a precious-metals hub. The vault will comprise safe-deposit boxes for high-value assets and a section for precious metals, with a capacity of 50 to 100 tons. SF sees opportunities to tap a storage market that has been growing, thanks to demand from wealthy individuals and to government support.

June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $4,917.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at $4,600.00 and then at today’s high of $4,670.10. First support is seen at the May low of $4,510.10 and then at $4,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July silver futures see the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the April low of $71.31. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at $82.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $77.20 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

5/14/2026: Gold weaker, silver down; bulls need fundamental spark

Source: Jim Wyckoff, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold prices are seeing modest selling pressure in quieter dealings near midday Thursday. Silver futures are sharply lower on profit taking after recent gains that saw prices hit a two-month high on Wednesday. Gold prices have been languishing in a choppy and sideways trading range the past week. The yellow metal bulls need some fresh, positive fundamental news to push prices above the trading range. At midday, June gold was last down $2.60 at $4,704.00. July silver prices were down $3.878 at $85.45.

In U.S. economic data today, retail sales advanced for a third month in April, pointing to some signs of consumer resilience despite sharply higher gasoline prices. The value of retail purchases increased 0.5% last month after a revised 1.6% gain in March. The report had little impact on the precious metals markets.

Meantime, U.S. import and export prices surged in April by the most in four years, on oil-market pressures tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, adding to evidence of higher inflation in the world’s largest economy. This report follows hotter U.S. CPI and PPI reports this week. The import price index rose 1.9% from the prior month, the biggest increase since March 2022, as petroleum costs surged 19%, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. Export prices rose 3.3% from the prior month, also the most in more than four years.

In other news, India has further tightened rules for importing gold into the country, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi steps up efforts to defend the rupee amid the Middle East war, Bloomberg reported. “Bullion imports of over a 100 kilograms (220 pounds) will be subject to advance authorization, a government notification said, adding that any subsequent imports would be issued only after 50% exports. India’s new rules for import licenses comes days after the government more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver to defend the currency.”

Latest developments in the U.S.-Iran war:

— U.S. bid to end Iran war stumble as ship seized near United Arab Emirates

— Two India-bound LPG tankers add to uptick in Hormuz transits

— Hormuz oil flows fell nearly 30% last quarter, EIA says

U.S. efforts to end the war with Iran were dealt a setback after a commercial vessel was apparently seized by unauthorized personnel near the United Arab Emirates, increasing uncertainty over control of the critical Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. “The ship, whose identity wasn’t immediately clear, was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE coast and is now bound for the Islamic Republic, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said in a statement on Thursday.” The incident came amid an apparent uptick in vessels transiting the strait, which usually handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to persuade Iran to help reopen Hormuz, saying a protracted closure threatens the economies of countries that Beijing relies on for exports.

Trump-Xi meeting highlights... Here’s a catch-up on the latest developments regarding the meeting in Beijing between Presidents Trump and Xi and as reported by Bloomberg: The Xi-Trump meeting lasted more than two hours, with both sides talking up a vision for more stable ties. Statements from China focused on the Taiwan issue, with Xi reiterating the U.S. must handle the issue with “extreme caution.” Meanwhile, the U.S. readout from the meeting said both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. The next public event for the two leaders will be the state banquet. Premier Li Qiang also met with U.S. executives, saying the two countries can and should continue to be friends and partners. Markets are cautious. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks closed at their session lows. The U.S. also said China wants to buy more American crude oil to cut its Middle East oil reliance.

Warsh confirmed as Fed chair... Kevin Warsh won confirmation to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term at the helm comes to an end this month. The 55-45 vote was the slimmest margin in the history of Fed chair confirmation votes, according to Bloomberg. Warsh will be presiding over a Fed wrestling with a significant pickup in inflation resulting from the oil supply shock created by the war with Iran. That’s served to squelch market expectations that Warsh will lead the central bank on the sort of aggressive rate-cutting plan President Trump has repeatedly insisted upon.

Inflation hitting India hard... India’s producer prices surged to just over a three-and-a-half-year high in April as elevated energy prices pushed up manufacturers’ input costs. The wholesale price index rose 8.30% from a year earlier, up from 3.88% in March and above the 5.50% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, data released Thursday by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed. Fuel and power led the increase, with inflation in the category jumping 24.71% in April from 1.05% a month earlier. In February, before the U.S. conflict with Iran, prices in the category had fallen 3.85%. Primary articles, which include raw materials and agricultural products, rose 9.17%, compared with 6.36% in March.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $101.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently around 4.455%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $4,917.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,783.40 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,645.20 and then at $4,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

July silver futures next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the April low of $71.31. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $90.105 and then at $91.00. Next support is seen at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

5/13/2026: Gold rises with sharply higher PPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.4% to close near $4,697 as sharply higher producer prices stoked demand for bullion as an inflation hedge despite increases in bond yields and the dollar. Silver surged 4.4% to finish at $88.89 an ounce.

The producer price index jumped 1.4% in April, the biggest rise in more than four years, as the energy shock driven by the US war on Iran filters through the economy. Prices for chemicals, transportation, and business equipment also surged as spillover effects from higher oil.

On an annualized basis, wholesale prices have surged 6%, double the rate of just four months ago. Consumer inflation typically lags wholesale inflation by several months.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed again, hitting the highest level since last July, as bond traders prepare for higher inflation and the possibility of rate hikes from the Fed. Tracking yields, the dollar also rose, adding 0.2% against major rivals.

Ordinarily, higher yields and a stronger dollar weigh on gold and other commodities by increasing the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets and by making them more expensive overseas.

But today's trading action broke that pattern as investors hedged against expectations that inflation is marching higher.

The Fed's annual Survey of Household Economic and Decision-making showed 90% of respondents are worried about rising prices. And the survey was conducted in October, long before the US war on Iran ignited much higher inflation.

Platinum and palladium picked up 3.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $201.0 to $4,697.70; silver climbed $7.76 to $88.89; platinum picked up $73.35 to $2,187.10; and palladium rose $22.60 to $1,512.35 an ounce.

5/12/2026: Gold slips on oil, CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.9% to close under $4,678, pressured by increases in Treasury yields and the dollar as fading ceasefire hopes and sharply higher consumer inflation clouded the outlook for lower interest rates from the Fed. Silver slid 0.4% to finish at $85.13 an ounce.

US benchmark WTI crude rose another 2.8% to nearly $103 per barrel following President Trump's declaration yesterday that peace talks with Iran are "on life support." With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the biggest global energy shock in more than a generation will continue to drive global inflation.

And domestic inflation is already climbing. Consumer prices jumped 0.6% to a 3-year high of 3.8% in April, fueled by sharply higher gasoline and energy costs. The core CPI, minus food and energy, rose 0.4% to 2.8%, a seven-month high.

Adding insult to injury, US electricity prices shot up a whopping 6.1% last month compared to a year earlier, accelerated by voracious demand from AI data centers.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed back toward 4.5% on expectations that inflation will continue to rise. While gold is often utilized as a hedge against inflation, it is pressured by rising yields, which increase the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies, limiting demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium dropped 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold eased $41.10 to $4,677.860; silver shed 36 cents to $85.13; platinum dropped 13.40 to $2,113.75; and palladium lost $24.40 to $1,489.75 an ounce.

5/11/2026: Gold down on peace pessimism

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down less than 0.1% to close under $4,719 after President Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal, lifting oil prices, Treasury yields, and the dollar. Silver surged 6.3% to finish at $85.49 an ounce.

Calling the Iranian proposal a "piece of garbage," Trump said the ceasefire is "on life support," suggesting hostilities could soon resume and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.

US benchmark WTI crude rose 3% to more than $98 a barrel on the ongoing supply disruptions.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4.4% on expectations that higher oil prices will drive inflation, reducing the chances of a rate cut from the Fed later this year. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals, pressuring gold by making it more expensive overseas.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $1.70 to $4,718.70; silver surged %5.09 to $85.49; platinum picked up $79.95 to $2,127.15; and palladium added $17.10, to $1,514.15 an ounce.

5/8/2026: Gold scores 2% weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained for a fourth session, adding another 0.4% to close above $4,720 on continuing optimism that peace with Iran could undercut energy-driven inflation, leading to rate cuts from the Fed later this year. Bullion rose 2% this week. Silver added 0.9% to finish at 80.34, posting a weekly rise of 5.8%.

Iran is expected to respond to the latest US proposal later today, allowing US markets to focus on AI profits and upbeat jobs data while hoping for the best in the Middle East.

Oil prices channeled as the market await further word, with US WTI adding 0.5% for just over $95 after trading over $107 earlier this week before peace overtures from the US. The retreat of oil prices lifted gold to its 2% gain this week. Falling oil means less inflation, which in turn means the Fed could lower interest rates later this year, at least in theory.

US payrolls rose more than expected for a second straight month, adding 115,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.

On the downside, US consumer sentiment plunged to its lowest level on record as Americans struggle with sharply higher gasoline and energy prices because of the Iran war.

Benchmarks 10-year Treasury yields slipped again on peace hopes, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell for the day and week, draining off all the safe-haven premium acquired during the war. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Platinum was nearly flat for the day and 2.7% higher for the week. Palladium fell 0.4% today and 2.9% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.60 to $4,720.40; silver added 69 cents, to $80.34; platinum dipped 90 cents to $2,047.20; and palladium slipped $6.50 to $1,497.05 an ounce.

5/7/2026: Gold gains for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained for a third straight session, adding another 0.4% to close at just under $4,700, as oil fell further on hopes that a lasting peace between the US and Iran may reduce inflationary pressures and nudge the Fed into rate cuts this year. Silver rose 3.8% to finish at $79.70 an ounce.

The US and Iran appear to be on the verge of a temporary, limited truce that would end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while leaving the most difficult issues, like Iran's nuclear ambitions, unresolved.

Oil prices tumbled for a second day on the peace-plan hopes, with global benchmark Brent crude falling 4.6% to $96.62 a barrel after dropping nearly 8% on Wednesday.

Under normal circumstances, gold typically trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation. But the US war on Iran has inverted that correlation. The extreme energy shock resulting from curtailed oil supply has sharply increased inflation expectations.

The New York Fed reported yesterday that supply-chain pressures created by the Iran war are the worst since 2022, when Covid's impact on supply chains drove inflation over 9%.

As a result, the Fed may be forced to leave interest rates steady or even increase them to control prices. A non-yielding asset, gold suffers when interest rates and bond yields rise, increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tomorrow's release of the government's nonfarm payrolls report should give further clues to the strength of the economy and direction of interest rates.

Platinum was nearly flat while palladium lost 2.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $17.90 to $4,699.80; silver rose $2.89 to $79.70; platinum inched down 60 cents to $2,048.10; and palladium dropped $37.70 to $1,503.55 an ounce.

5/6/2026: Gold jumps on peace prospect

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped 2.8% to close near $4,682, the highest level in more than a week, as optimism about a possible end the US war on Iran drove down oil prices and the dollar while allaying fears of higher inflation and interest rates. Silver surged 5.1% to finish at $76.81 an ounce.

Iran is reportedly weighing a new US peace proposal submitted through Pakistani mediators, and China has begun pressing both parties to end the war. Tehran is expected to respond within two days.

While details are not public, the proposal would likely result in a lifting of the US blockage of Hormuz and sanctions relief if Tehran gives up its uranium enrichment program and meets other constraints.

Oil prices plunged on the peace prospect, with US benchmark WTI crude dropping nearly 7% to $95 per barrel.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to under $4.3% on hopes that peace would lead to lower oil prices and undercut rising inflation, perhaps enabling the Fed to lower interest rates later this year. Lower yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dropped 0.4% to its lowest level since the war began. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, lifting overseas demand.

Platinum and palladium rose 4.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained#126.10 to $4,681.90; silver surged $3.70 to $76.81; platinum rose $84.25 to $2,048.70; and palladium advanced $34.15 to $1,541.25 an ounce.

5/5/2026: Gold gains on bargain-hunting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.8% to close near $4,556 on bargain-hunting as oil prices and Treasury yields slipped on muted hopes that the Middle East ceasefire is unbroken. Silver edged up less than 0.1% to finish at $73.11 an ounce.

One day after the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump to threaten to blow Iran "off the face of the Earth," the delicate ceasefire between the two nations is holding, according to US Defense Secretary Pete Hesgeth.

Wall Street ran with suggestion, however tenuous, lifting the Dow and S&P 500 by 0.6% and 0.9% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1% on AI growth.

US benchmark WTI crude fell 4.1% to $102 per barrel on hopes that the Strait could soon reopen, returning 20% of the world's oil supply to the market and easing inflation pressures stemming from the biggest energy-shock in a generation.

Benchmark 10-Year Treasury yields and the dollar both edged down on the shifting inflation optimism, bringing bargain-hunters back to the gold market after bullion slipped to a one-month low yesterday.

Lower yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum and palladium rose 0.5% and 2.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $36.30 to $4,555.80; silver added 4 cents, to $73.11; platinum rose $10.70 to $1,964.45; and palladium picked up $31.45 to $1,507.10 an ounce.

5/4/2026: Gold falls on Hormuz hostilities

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.4% to close under $4,520 after renewed hostilities in the Middle East cast doubt on a lasting ceasefire and raised bets that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to combat energy-driven inflation. Silver shed 3.8% to finish at &3.07 an ounce.

Iran's Fars News agency reported that two Iranian missiles hit US warships as they escorted vessels through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, something the US has denied. Separately, the UAE said it parried missile attacks as Iran tightens its control of Hormuz.

The escalating violence lifted US benchmark WTI crude 3.3% to more than $105 per barrel on the prospect of further supply deficits. Around 20% of the global oil supply ordinarily passes through Hormuz.

Bond traders are beginning to prices in higher interest rates from the Fed as one of the biggest energy shocks in history filters into inflation forecasts. Traders now see an 80% chance of a rate increase by April 2027, as opposed to several rate cuts before the US war on Iran.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose on the hawkish rate outlook, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expansive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium fell 2% and 4.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $110.40 to $4,510.50; silver shed $2.88 to $73.07; platinum dropped $39.90 to $1,953.75; and palladium fell $63.60 to $1,474.65 an ounce.