AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/25/2025: Gold rise on data, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.9% to close above $4,130 after mixed data reinforced rate-cut expectations and the emergence of a dovish candidate for Fed Chair pressured yields and the dollar. Silver rose 1.3% to finish at $50.93 an ounce.

Mixed data delayed by the government shutdown showed retail sales rising just 0.2% in September, half of expectations and one-third of the increase in August. Meanwhile, the September PPI showed wholesale inflation rising 2.7% over the prior 12 months, matching August.

Current data from the Conference Board indicates consumer sentiment fell sharply this month to near pandemic lows on concerns about tariffs, prices, and a stagnant job market.

The net-negative data reinforced views that the Fed will reduce interest rates by another quarter-point when it meets next month, and perhaps again in January. Fed fund futures traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a December cut, followed by a 60% chance of another in January.

In addition, Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell's term expires next spring. The White House National Economic Council Director is a close ally of President Trump's and would likely pursue Trump's preference for drastically lower interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to just above 4% on the dovish near- and longer-term prospects for rates, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yield, the dollar lost 0.4% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum climbed 0.4% while palladium slid 0.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $38.25 to $4,130.15; silver rose 64 cents to $50.93; platinum picked up $5.5 to $1,551.75; and palladium shed $6.15 to $1,396.95 an ounce.

11/24/2025: Gold rises on Fed comments

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close near $4,092 as Treasury yields and the dollar ticked lower on growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. Silver added 0.8% to finish at $50.30 an ounce.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today that weakness in the labor market is enough to warrant another rate cut this year. His comments follow those of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.

While several other Fed officials are unconvinced of the need for further easing, citing stubborn inflation, three of the most influential voices—Powell, Williams, and Waller—are unified in putting full employment above price stability as the most pressing Fed priority right now.

Fed fund futures raised the probability of a quarter-point cut in December to 81%, up from 71% yesterday and 42% a week ago.

The dollar and 10-year Treasury yields both edged lower on the dovish rate view. A weaker buck makes gold less expensive overseas, while lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum and palladium rose 15% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $15.20 to $4,091.90; silver rose 42 cents to $50.30; platinum picked up $23.30 to $1,546.25; and palladium added $10.05, to $1,401.10 an ounce.

11/21/2025: Gold gains on dovish Fed view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close near $4,077 after soft US data and dovish comments from an influential Fed official increased optimism for a December rate cut. Bullion still slipped 0.3% for the week. Silver fell 0.7% to finish at $49.87 for a weekly decline of 1.4%.

The final version of University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell in November to one of the lowest readings ever recorded. Americans grew increasingly pessimistic about the personal finances and frustrated with high prices driven by tariffs.

Separately, US factory activity fell to a four-month low as tariffs raised prices and limited demand. But the services sector expanded slightly, and service-related businesses expressed confidence in improving conditions, according to the S&P PMI survey.

Against this backdrop, New York Fed President John Williams said today the centra bank could cut interest further in the near term without damaging its inflation goals. Williams is almost always aligned with Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed Chair, too, may support a December rate cut.

Fed funds futures traders immediately raised the likelihood of a quarter-point cut next month to 73%, up from 35% before Williams' comments.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on the shifting rate view, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of for bonds for safety.

Platinum picked up 0.2% but lost 1.9% for the week. Palladium added 0.3% today but subtracted 2% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.20 to $4,076.70; silver shed 37 cents to $49.87; platinum picked up $2.90 to $1,522.75; and palladium added $4.20, to $1,393.05 an ounce.

11/20/2025: Gold slips on mixed jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close under $4,057 after mixed jobs data pressured Treasury yields and the dollar while lifting the odds of a Fed rate cut in December. Silver fell 1.1% to $50.25 an ounce.

After a long delay caused by the government shutdown, the nonfarm payrolls report for October showed the economy adding 119,000 jobs in September, more than double forecasts. The increase came after two straight months of negative job growth, suggesting a possible stabilization in the labor market.

But the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level in nearly four years. And the staleness of the data, combined with the loss of October and November statistics because of the shutdown, leaves the Fed somewhat blind ahead of its December meeting.

The minutes from the October meeting released yesterday showed a committee deeply divided over further rate cuts, weighing higher inflation against the apparent fragility of the labor market. What's more, over the past week a series of officials have thrown cold water on the idea of further easing.

Nonetheless, the rising unemployment rate spurred Fed funds futures traders to raise the likelihood of another quarter-point reduction in December to 40%, up from 30% yesterday, according to CME FedWatch.

The crosscurrents of rate-view uncertainty caught gold today, with the suggestion of a stronger labor market and hawkish Fed jawboning being enough to prompt traders to take profits from its record rally despite slight downticks in the dollar and yields, two influences that usually support the gold price.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $21.20 to $4,056.20; silver shed 54 cents to $50.25; platinum dropped $27.05 to $1,519.85; and palladium lost $13.25 to $1,388.85 an ounce.

11/19/2025: Precious metals consolidation continues

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were whipsawed overnight and in New York trading as precious metals continue to consolidate recent big gains and seek firm support and resistance levels at higher price levels. All four metals were sharply higher in overnight trading before selling off in the New York session.

Gold is finding support at $3,950 and resistance at $4,200. Silver, which traded as low as $46.00 three weeks ago, has seen rising support coming in at $48.00 and again at $50.00, with resistance at $54.00. Platinum has been trading in a tight $1,500 to $1,650 range while palladium has become range bound between $1,380 and $1,525.

The BLS announced today there would be no employment data released for October due to insufficient data collection. The November employment report will be released Dec. 16, two weeks later than normal for the month. This means when the Fed meets for their final meeting of the year Dec. 9 and 10, they will not have any recent US employment data available to them.

Fed minutes from the Oct. meeting, released today, indicated Fed officials are divided on whether to cut rates another twenty-five basis points at their Dec. meeting with “many” Fed officials indicating holding rates at current levels would be appropriate.

At the New York spot close; gold gained $16.40 to $4,077.70; silver rose 34 cents to $50.79; platinum edged up $1.20 to $1,546.90; and palladium shed $19.57 to $1,394.34 an ounce.

11/17/2025: Gold slips on dollar strength

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close near $4,068 despite lower Treasury yields as the dollar gained on falling expectations for a December rate cut from the Fed. Silver inched down less than 0.1% to finish at $50.55 an ounce.

Although the resumption of official data reporting this week is likely to show the economy weakened during the 43-day government shutdown, a growing chorus of Fed officials is singing the refrain of "wait and see" before reducing interest rates again.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said today that although the weakening labor market has shifted economic risks to the downside, policymakers need to move slowly before further easing. Jefferson's caution echoes Fed Chair Jerome Powell's warning recently that despite market hopes, a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion."

Last week, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari all expressed similar wariness of further easing.

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals as Fed funds traders sharply lowered the odds on a December cut to 41%, down from 65% last week. A stronger buck weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Gold's slide was backstopped by lower benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which fell on rotation away from stocks into the perceived safety of government debt.

All three major US stock indexes fell 1.2%, pressured by softer data and concerns about upcoming earnings reports for Nivida and other AI darlings. Business investment in AI has been the main bolster for otherwise soft GDP growth this year.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close; gold dipped $19.30 to $4,068.30; silver slipped 4 cents to $50.55; platinum dropped $20.60 to $1,530.45; and palladium shed $22.35 to $1,398.35 an ounce.

11/14/2025: Gold falls, holds 2% weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.4% to close under $4,088, swept up in a broad market selloff driven by growing expectation that the Fed will not deliver a rate cut in December. Bullion still gained 2.2% for the week on safe-haven inflows driven by softer US data. Silver dropped 4.8% to finish at $50.59 an ounce for a weekly rise of 5.3%.

Citing stubborn inflation and a dearth of data because of the 43-day government shutdown, a phalanx of Fed officials pushed back this week on the prospect of new reductions in interest rates.

Odd of a December cut have fallen under 50%, according to Fed funds futures trading, from 66% earlier this week and near-certainty a month ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose further on the dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity costs for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar rose 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, curtailing overseas demand.

Soft US data from non-government sources like ADP and Goldman Sachs showed the economy shedding jobs over the past month. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey reported consumer sentiment plummeting because of the government shutdown and softening labor market. Gold saw big gains over from flights to safety before correcting the past two sessions on hawkish Fed comments.

Platinum fell 1.7% but gained 0.5% for the week. Palladium dropped 3.7% today but rose 1.4% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $99.30 to $4,087.60; silver shed $2.49 to $50.59; platinum slid $26.20 to $1,551.05; and palladium retreated $54.95 to $1,420.70 an ounce.

11/13/2025: Gold slips on dimming rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.4% to close near $4,187 on profit-taking after Treasury yields rose on a dimming outlook for a December rate cut from the Fed. Silver dropped 0.5% to finish at $53.07 an ounce.

With the US government slowly reopening after the longest shut down in history, traders are bracing for the possibility that the resumption of data flows may show significantly higher inflation and prevent further easing of monetary policy.

Citing stubbornly higher inflation, some Fed officials have become vocal in opposition to a December rate cut. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said yesterday that she sees a "relatively high bar" for additional easing in the near term. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also expressed a preference for holding rates steady.

Meanwhile, some Fed officials who previously supported rate cuts are now on the fence. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said today that any decision on December is "premature." And Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said "mixed signals" from economy is changing his outlook.

Fed fund futures have dropped the probability of a quarter-point cut in December at less than 50%, down from 65% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.1% on the hawkish shift, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.2$ and 0.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $17.50 to $4,186.90; silver shed 26 cents to $53.07; platinum dropped $35.30 to $1,577.25; and palladium lost $5.30 to $1,470.35 an ounce.

11/12/2025: Gold rockets above $4,200

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rocketed 2.4% to close above $4,202 on expectations that the resumption of government data after the shutdown will show a substantially weaker economy, boosting the likelihood of further rate cuts from the Fed. Silver surged 5.4% to finish at $53.33 an ounce.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is scheduled to vote late today on an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The 42-day closure prevented the collection and release of crucial data on jobs and prices in October, which the White House says is permanently lost.

Instead, the Fed will have to wait for November releases from the BLS and other agencies to plan monetary policy ahead of its December meeting. Data from nongovernmental sources like ADP and Goldman Sachs have shown the sizable job losses in October. Official data, when it returns, is expected to reflect this weakening trend.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped under 4.1% on safe-haven inflows and expectations that the Fed will provide monetary easing to support the labor market. Lower yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Despite pulling back from October's all-time high above $4,380, gold has risen more than 55% this year behind tariff turmoil, geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization, and aggressive purchases by emerging market central banks.

Platinum and palladium gained 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold jumped $97.60 to $4,204.40; silver surged $2.71 to $53.33; platinum picked up $21.30 to $1,612.55; and palladium rose $17.10 to $1,475.65 an ounce.

11/11/2025: Gold dips on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.1% to close under $4,107 as the prospective reopening of the Federal government stoked risk appetite, prompting traders to take profits from bullion's strong recent rally. Silver rose 0.9% to finish at $50.62 an ounce.

The longest government shutdown in US history appears to be ending after a handful of moderate Democrat Senators opted to support their Republican colleagues on funding.

Wall Street cheered the breakthrough, with the Dow surging 1.2% to a new all-time high. Monies were pulled away from safe havens like gold, which had rallied nearly 5% over the previous four trading sessions because of the shutdown and weak US economic data.

Official reports on inflation and employment have been missing because of the shutdown and will take time to restore, leaving Fed policymakers somewhat in the dark as they plot the course of interest rates ahead of their December meeting.

But initial signs on the labor market are not good. ADP reported today that the private sector has shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week for the past month. A separate report from Goldman Sachs estimates that official government data will show 50,000 jobs were lost in October.

Backstopping gold's slide, the dollar lost 0.2% against major rivals on expectations that the weak jobs numbers will encourage the Fed to lower interest rates again in December. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

Platinum and palladium added 0.1% and 2.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $5 to $4,106.80; silver rose 44 cents to $50.62; platinum picked up $1.50 to $1,591.25; and palladium climbed $30.90 to $1,459.55 an ounce.