AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

12/18/2025: Gold dips after soft CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was little changed, dipping less than 0.3% to close under $4,334 on rising risk appetite, after softer than expected consumer prices lifted equities and pressured Treasury yields. Silver shed 1.2% on profit-taking, closing at $65.45 after hitting all-time highs this week.

The Consumer Price Index, delayed by the government shutdown, showed prices rising just 2.7% in November, well under the 3.1% consensus forecast. The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose an annualized 2.6%. It was the slowest annual pace since early 2021.

While many question the validity of data collected during the shutdown, Wall Street nonetheless leapt at the news as traders anticipate future rate cuts. Rate-sensitive tech stocks led the way, with eh Nasdaq jumping 1.8% while the S&P 500 added 1.1% and the Dow 0.5%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped as the latest inflation data suggested that the Fed may be less inclined to reign in rate cuts. Indeed, President Trump announced today that his picked for the next Fed Chair will support sharply lower rates.

Platinum and palladium fell less than 0.1% and 3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $13.95 to $4,333.55; silver shed 79 cents to $65.45; platinum dipped 18 cents to $1,932.85; and palladium lost $49.36 to $1,704.05 an ounce.

12/17/2025: Gold gains, silver hits new record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1% to close above $4,347 as faltering equities and rising tensions between the US and Venezuela stoked safe-haven demand. Silver surged 3.6% to finish at a new all-time high of $66.24 an ounce.

Confidence in the AI trade wavered as Nvidia, the leading AI chipmaker, fell 3.8% and Oracle struggled to finance its new mega-data center in Michigan. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.8% in reaction while the S&P 500 shed 1.2%.

Adding to flights to safety, President Trump ordered a "blockade" of Venezuelan oil tankers in his latest effort to force President Nicolas Maduro to leave office. The move raised concerns about the possibility of armed conflict and lifted oil prices by 1.75%. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly as traders brace for tomorrow's release of the delayed CPI report. Inflation was rising before the government shutdown.

The question facing the Fed is whether prices continued to climb during October and November while data collection ceased. The CPI data, followed on Friday by the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, could influence the course of interest rates over the next few months.

Gold has risen 65% this year behind chaotic trade policies, inflation worries, geopolitical instability, and aggressive buying by global central banks. Silver is up 129% for the same reasons, plus substantial supple deficits.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.2% and 3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $43 to $4,347.50; silver surged $2.47 to $6624; platinum picked up %58.17 to $1,903.31; and palladium advanced $48.56 to $1,654.69 an ounce.

12/16/2025: Gold dips after jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped less than 0.1% to close under $4,305 on profit-taking after better-than-expected jobs data slightly lowered the odds of a January rate cut. Silver shed 0.4% to finish at $67.70 an ounce.

The delayed nonfarm payrolls report from the BLS showed 64,000 new jobs added in November, surpassing forecasts. The same report showed 105,000 jobs lost in October, but the data collection was incomplete because of the government shutdown. Annualized unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.6%.

The modest job growth suggested that although hiring remains static, substantial deterioration in the labor market has yet to result from volatile trade and tariff policies this year.

Separately, retail sales were unchanged in October. Consumer spending appears intact among higher-income households while lower- and middle-income families are cutting back because of higher prices.

Fed fund futures traders slightly lowered the odds of a September rate cut to 73% from 78% yesterday, according to CME FedWatch.

Platinum slipped 0.2% while palladium rose 1.8% on supply deficits.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.20 to $4,304.50; silver shed $24 cents to $67.70; platinum lost $2.70 to $1,842.25; and palladium advance $28560 to $1,607.95 n ounce.

12/15/2025: Gold gains ahead of key data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close near $4,307 as Treasury yields and the dollar edged down ahead of a flood of key economic data later this week. Bullion rose as much as 1.2% earlier in the session before retreating on reports of progress in Ukraine war negotiations. Silver surged 2.6% to finish at $62.94 an ounce.

The combined October/November jobs report from the BLS will be released tomorrow after months of delays because of the record-long government shutdown. The widely anticipated nonfarm payrolls report will include partial data for October and a full November survey.

The state of the labor market is a key element in the Fed's calculation about whether to lower interest rates again soon. The delayed US retail sales report is also due tomorrow, along with the S&P flash US manufacturing and services PMI data.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down slightly as traders anticipate that the cascade of data will raise the likelihood of another rate cut from the Fed. Fed fund futures market are pricing in a 78% chance of a quarter-point reduction at the January meeting.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dipped against major rivals including the yen, Swiss franc, and euro, A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rallied 1.6% and 4.3%, which the latter benefiting from new projections of a 200,000-ounce supply deficit this year from Russia's Nornickel, the world's leading producer.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $6.60 to $4,306,70; silver surged $1.58 to $62.94; platinum picked up $27.85 to $1,784.95; and palladium rose $65.15 to $1,579.35 an ounce.

12/12/2025: Gold, silver notch strong week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close above $4,296 despite slight upticks in the dollar and Treasury yields as investors digest surprisingly neutral messaging from the Fed about future rate cuts. Bullion finished the week 2% higher. Silver tumbled 3.7% on profit-taking after yesterday’s rally to a new all-time high but still rallied 5.8% this week.

After cutting interest rates at its third straight meeting, the Fed suggested this week that it might pause further rates reductions for now. The so-called dot-plot forecast accompanying the Fed’s updated policy statement is now projecting a single quarter-point cut in 2026 and 2027.

The Fed next meets in January. Nine of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported a quarter-point rate cut this week, and one wanted a half-point reduction.

But post-meeting statements by Jerome Powell and other Fed officials were less hawkish than the markets feared and the dot-plot forecast might indicate. Powell said he expects to see “solid growth” next year, and the central bank will “wait to see how the economy evolves” before taking further action. Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby, one of three dissenters from the December rate cut, said he is “optimistic that interest rates can come down a significant amount over the next year.”

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged up on the suggestion of a pause, limiting gold’s rise by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar inched up slightly, further impeding gold’s gains by making it pricier overseas. But the buck lost 0.6% this week and is down 1.1% so far this month.

Platinum added 2.1% for a weekly rise of 5.9%. Palladium picked up less than 0.1% today and advanced 2.8% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $10.85 to $4,296.35; silver shed $2.15 to $61.78; platinum rose $36.45; and palladium picked up $1.50 to $1,514.20 an ounce.

12/10/2025: Gold dips ahead of Fed decision

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% to close under $4,197 on light profit-taking ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates as traders anticipate a rate cut, but one with hawkish forward guidance. Silver extended its record run, adding 0.3% to finish at $60.38 an ounce.

Fed fund futures traders are pricing in an 89% likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it concludes its two-day meeting today. This is up slightly from 87.4% yesterday.

But the widely expected reduction may come with a hawkish approach to next year's rate path. A divided Fed is struggling with elevated inflation, a dearth of fresh economic data because of the government shutdown, and the uncertain prospect of a change in leadership when Jerome Powell's term expires in May.

The interest-rate futures market is pricing in two quarter-point cuts in 2026, which would bring the Fed policy rate to 3%—still lower than the Fed's most recent dot-plot projection of 3.4%. All ears will be tuned to the tenor of the post-meeting policy statement and Powell's press conference for additional clues.

Silver rallied to a fresh all-time high, driven by increased industrial demand, a global supply deficit, and its designation by the U.S as a critical mineral.

Platinum and palladium fell 3.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $10.30 to $4,196.40; silver rose 21 cents to $60.38; platinum shed $63.80 to $1,632.95; and palladium retreat by $64.10 to $1,465.85 an ounce.

12/9/2025: Gold gains, silver surges past $60

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.5% to close near $4,207 on expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates this week. Silver skyrocketed another 4.1% higher to close at a record high of $60.17, its first ever finish above $60 an ounce.

The Fed meets today on monetary policy with the market expecting that it will reduce interest rates by a quarter-point for the third time this fall. Fed funds futures traders put the likelihood at 87.4%, down slightly from yesterday but substantially higher than one month ago, when the odds were 67%.

Prominent Fed officials in recent weeks have signaled their preference to support a moribund labor market even if doing so conflicts with the other leg of their dual mandate, pushing inflation down to 2%. Traders will be especially attentive to the Fed's policy statement and Chairman Powell's post-meeting comments, scanning for clues about future rate cuts.

Lower interest rates are typically supportive of gold and silver because they pressure the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost for holding either metal as a safe-haven asset.

In something of a role reversal, gold was also pulled higher today in sympathy with silver, which rocketed above $60 for the first time behind a global supply deficit and projections of rising industrial demand in coming years. In addition to its status as currency and safe-haven asset, silver is used in higher-growth sectors such as solar energy, data centers, AI, and electric vehicles.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $19.50 to $4,206.70; silver surged $2.39 to $60.17; platinum picked up $43.80 to $1,696.75; and palladium added $26.35, to $1,509.95 an ounce.

12/8/2025: Gold slides ahead of Fed meeting

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.6% to close under $4,188 as Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs on expectations that the Fed will deliver a "hawkish cut" at its meeting this week. Silver shed 64 cents to finish at $57.78 an ounce.

The markets almost universally anticipate another rate cut of 25 basis points at the Fed's final meeting on monetary policy this year. Supporting the US labor market has emerged as a priority in recent commentary from Fed Chair Powell and other committee members, with inflation taking a back seat.

But the persistence of inflation above the Fed's 2%, even before tariffs have fully hit prices, has bond traders apprehensive about prospects of additional easing in 2026.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest level in three months on expectations that Powell's post-meeting statements will be hawkish, signalling a high bar for further easing. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar edged higher against major rivals, weighing on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium added 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $25.70 to $4,187.20; silver shed 64 cents to $57.78; platinum picked up $5.60 to $1,651.95; and palladium added $11.20, to $1,483.70 an ounce.

12/5/2025: Gold ticks up for day, week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up less than 0.1% to close near $4,213 after belated data on inflation and consumer spending from September did nothing to change expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates next week. Bullion rose 0.1% for the week. Silver surged 2.8% to finish at $58.42 an ounce, notching a weekly gain of 3.5%.

Delayed by the government shutdown, data from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending stalling in September as households felt the pressure from higher inflation, volatile trade policies, a frozen job market, and the pending government shutdown. Spending rose 0.3% after three straight months of stronger gains.

Separately, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rising at the fastest pace in 18 months in September. Inflation increased by 0.3% for a 12-month rate of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in August.

The markets breathed a sigh of relief that the data, while stale, was not worse. All three major stock indexes rose more than 0.2%. Fed funds futures traders kept the odds of a quarter-point cut from the Fed next week at 88%, virtually unchanged from yesterday.

The dollar edged slightly higher against major rivals, limiting gold's gains by making it pricier overseas. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also crept higher.

Platinum slipped 0.3% for the day and 0.2% for the week. Palladium rose 1.4% today but fell 3.6% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained 0$1.10 to $4,212.90; silver climbed $1.58 to $58.42; platinum slipped $.80 to $16,46.35; and palladium advanced $20.50 to $1,472.40 an ounce.

12/4/2025: Gold rises ahead of PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close near $4,212 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors bet on another rate cut from the Fed. Silver retreated 1.8% to finish at $56,85 an ounce.

Running counter to a recent slew of negative employment data, new jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 last week to 191,000, the lowest level since 2022. The number of people collecting ongoing benefits edged down slightly to 1.94 million but hovered near a post-pandemic high.

Earlier this week, ADP reported 33,000 jobs were lost last month in the private sector, marking the third month out of the past four in which the economy shed jobs. Other sources like ISM surveys and Beige Book reports indicated frozen hiring. But layoffs remain relatively muted, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labor market.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched up on the news, limiting gold's gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.1% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders foresee an 87% likelihood that the Fed will reduce rates by a quarter-point when it meets next week. Tomorrow's release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures index, delayed by the government shutdown, should give a clearer sense of the Fed's plans.

Unless the PCE shows much higher inflation than expected in September, the dovish voices on the FOMC are likely to hold sway, given the recent emphasis by key Fed officials supporting the labor market.

Lower rates are typically bullish for gold because they reduce bond yields and weaken the dollar. A falling dollar makes gold and other commodities less expensive on other currencies, lifting demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.50 to $2,11.80; silver shed $1.07 to $56.85; platinum dipped $7 to $1,651.15; and palladium lot $24.90 to $1,451.90 an ounce.