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AGE Gold Commentary is our regular report analyzing trends in precious metals and rare coins. We monitor domestic and international markets and extrapolate from our 30 years in metals to place current events into a hard asset perspective. View archives.

9/2/2003: Gold hits $376, signs of bullish autumn


Greetings! In this issue of Gold Market Update:

Gold hits $376, more gains likely
Three signs of a bullish fall season
Silver and platinum holding gains
New York Institutional Gold Conference
Long Beach Coin Show

Gold hits $376, more gains likely

Since our update in late July, gold has been both resilient and bullish in price. After dipping to a cyclical bottom of $346.10 in early August, on the heels of fund profit-taking and a rally in the dollar, gold has been aggressively moving higher. After gaining nearly $12 in the last week, gold broke $376 today before closing at just under $373 on profit-taking. The market looks ready for more gains in the upcoming weeks and months.

Three signs of a bullish fall season

The breakout we advised you of a month ago continues to develop nicely, and the gold market looks stronger to us than it has in years. Three aspects of the current run-up are especially noteworthy; they combine to indicate that gold is entering a strongly bullish phase that could see prices challenge the major $415 resistance level in coming months.

First, gold has been moving higher during the typically dead month of August. Itís highly unusual to see substantial rallies in August. Typically August sees little activity before the fall buying season begins in September. A strong run-up in August augurs very well for accelerated gains this fall.

Second, gold is now often gaining even when the US dollar also gains. In recent years, goldís fortunes have been tied directly to the dollar, with the gold price moving higher only when the dollar moved lower in relation to the euro. Gold is now showing significant independence from the dollar, gaining on its own fundamental strength as well as dollar weakness, opening the way for a much higher gold price this fall.

And third, gold has continued to advance in price despite an unusually large speculative long position among technical traders in the market. At some point, profit-taking by these speculators will knock the gold price back $5 to $10, whether gold is at $375, $385 or $395 at that time. What matters most is what happens afterward, and we fully expect gold to keep grinding higher. Every time gold has gotten a little cheaper during the last 30 days, it has almost immediately ratcheted up to a new progressive high. Such resilience is the mark of a solid bull market with excellent fundamental strength.

It bears repeating that the gold market today looks stronger to us than it has in years Ė and thatís saying something! We continue to anticipate gold trading up to the previous multi-year resistance level of $415, and weíll keep you posted as market conditions warrant.

Silver and platinum holding gains

In other metals news, silver is holding steady at the $5.00 mark. Platinum is trading just over $700 and looks substantially overpriced to us. You should consider selling part or all of your platinum holdings if you are in a profit position!

New York Institutional Gold Conference

Iím heading off to the New York Institutional Gold Investment Conference in next week. Free to the public, the conference is being held at the Marriott Marquis at 1535 Broadway on Monday, September 8, and Tuesday, September 9. If you are in the New York area, feel free to attend and be sure to stop by the AGE booth (No. 106) to say hello!

Long Beach Coin Show

The next major coin show is in Long Beach during the week of September 17-20. We will be there, too. The bull market in rare coins is shaping up just as we thought it would. Gold is running up in price and demand for classic U.S. gold coins is running up even faster. Phase 2 of this bull market (where the big gains occur) is just heating up. The good news is that we expect to see coins values moving higher. The bad news is that we expect to have a very difficult time finding coins to buy for inventory.

Since 1998 weíve quietly built a solid reputation and a loyal clientele by correctly identifying the major market trends in advance, and positioning our customers for substantial gains. None our competitors, to my knowledge, has a similar track record. We take pride in calling ourselves Your Reliable Hard Asset Advisor, and we do our best to live up to this moniker every day.

Thatís it for now. We will keep you posted as further events develop.

As always, thanks for your time!


Dana Samuelson
American Gold Exchange


Metal Ask      Change
Gold $1,780.89           $0.00
Silver $18.21           $0.00
Platinum $832.41           $0.00
Palladium $1,973.67           $0.00
In US Dollars