AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

3/18/2026: Gold falls on PPI, rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 2.2% to close at a one-month low under $4,890 as rising wholesale inflation and the raging war in Iran dimmed the outlook for rate cuts from the Fed, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver shed 2.9% to finish at 77.24 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.7% in February, lifting the annualized wholesale inflation rate to 3.4% from 2.9% in January. It was the third straight monthly increase and the biggest in seven months. The core PPI, excluding fuel and food, rose 0.5% for an annualized rate of 3.5%

Notably, the readings were taken prior to the US attacks on Iran, which have pushed global oil prices over $100 and driven US gasoline prices up 30% in less than three weeks.

Fed fund futures traders now see inflation pressures preventing the Fed from cutting interest rates until late this year, if at all.

The odds that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year have risen from under 5% a month ago to 36% today, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood of just a single cut of 25 basis points by December, rather than two, has risen to 76% from less than 25% a month ago.

Meanwhile, the Fed's two-day meeting on policy ends today with almost universal expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. The question is whether they signal concern about rising inflation and the Iran war, and perhaps the need to suspend rate cuts indefinitely.

Adding to inflation worries, the US war on Iran shows no signs of de-escalating. In the first reported attack on Iran's energy infrastructure in the Gulf, the gigantic Pars gas field was hit today, prompting vows of retribution against the energy installations of neighboring countries.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed on the rising PPI and dimming rate view, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, limiting overseas demand.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $111,10 to $4,889.90; silver shed $2.29 to $77.24; platinum dropped $60.50 to $2,062.85; and palladium lost $79.40 to $1,532.35 an ounce.