AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

5/14/2026: Gold weaker, silver down; bulls need fundamental spark

Source: Jim Wyckoff, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold prices are seeing modest selling pressure in quieter dealings near midday Thursday. Silver futures are sharply lower on profit taking after recent gains that saw prices hit a two-month high on Wednesday. Gold prices have been languishing in a choppy and sideways trading range the past week. The yellow metal bulls need some fresh, positive fundamental news to push prices above the trading range. At midday, June gold was last down $2.60 at $4,704.00. July silver prices were down $3.878 at $85.45.

In U.S. economic data today, retail sales advanced for a third month in April, pointing to some signs of consumer resilience despite sharply higher gasoline prices. The value of retail purchases increased 0.5% last month after a revised 1.6% gain in March. The report had little impact on the precious metals markets.

Meantime, U.S. import and export prices surged in April by the most in four years, on oil-market pressures tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, adding to evidence of higher inflation in the world’s largest economy. This report follows hotter U.S. CPI and PPI reports this week. The import price index rose 1.9% from the prior month, the biggest increase since March 2022, as petroleum costs surged 19%, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. Export prices rose 3.3% from the prior month, also the most in more than four years.

In other news, India has further tightened rules for importing gold into the country, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi steps up efforts to defend the rupee amid the Middle East war, Bloomberg reported. “Bullion imports of over a 100 kilograms (220 pounds) will be subject to advance authorization, a government notification said, adding that any subsequent imports would be issued only after 50% exports. India’s new rules for import licenses comes days after the government more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver to defend the currency.”

Latest developments in the U.S.-Iran war:

— U.S. bid to end Iran war stumble as ship seized near United Arab Emirates

— Two India-bound LPG tankers add to uptick in Hormuz transits

— Hormuz oil flows fell nearly 30% last quarter, EIA says

U.S. efforts to end the war with Iran were dealt a setback after a commercial vessel was apparently seized by unauthorized personnel near the United Arab Emirates, increasing uncertainty over control of the critical Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. “The ship, whose identity wasn’t immediately clear, was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE coast and is now bound for the Islamic Republic, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said in a statement on Thursday.” The incident came amid an apparent uptick in vessels transiting the strait, which usually handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to persuade Iran to help reopen Hormuz, saying a protracted closure threatens the economies of countries that Beijing relies on for exports.

Trump-Xi meeting highlights... Here’s a catch-up on the latest developments regarding the meeting in Beijing between Presidents Trump and Xi and as reported by Bloomberg: The Xi-Trump meeting lasted more than two hours, with both sides talking up a vision for more stable ties. Statements from China focused on the Taiwan issue, with Xi reiterating the U.S. must handle the issue with “extreme caution.” Meanwhile, the U.S. readout from the meeting said both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. The next public event for the two leaders will be the state banquet. Premier Li Qiang also met with U.S. executives, saying the two countries can and should continue to be friends and partners. Markets are cautious. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks closed at their session lows. The U.S. also said China wants to buy more American crude oil to cut its Middle East oil reliance.

Warsh confirmed as Fed chair... Kevin Warsh won confirmation to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term at the helm comes to an end this month. The 55-45 vote was the slimmest margin in the history of Fed chair confirmation votes, according to Bloomberg. Warsh will be presiding over a Fed wrestling with a significant pickup in inflation resulting from the oil supply shock created by the war with Iran. That’s served to squelch market expectations that Warsh will lead the central bank on the sort of aggressive rate-cutting plan President Trump has repeatedly insisted upon.

Inflation hitting India hard... India’s producer prices surged to just over a three-and-a-half-year high in April as elevated energy prices pushed up manufacturers’ input costs. The wholesale price index rose 8.30% from a year earlier, up from 3.88% in March and above the 5.50% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, data released Thursday by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed. Fuel and power led the increase, with inflation in the category jumping 24.71% in April from 1.05% a month earlier. In February, before the U.S. conflict with Iran, prices in the category had fallen 3.85%. Primary articles, which include raw materials and agricultural products, rose 9.17%, compared with 6.36% in March.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $101.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently around 4.455%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $4,917.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,783.40 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,645.20 and then at $4,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

July silver futures next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the April low of $71.31. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $90.105 and then at $91.00. Next support is seen at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5