Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

U.S. pounds Iran for ninth-straight day. The U.S. conducted a ninth straight day of airstrikes on Iran, trying to force that nation to stop shipping attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the Strait has been drastically reduced during the recent military escalation. “The American military bombed military targets and communications networks in a three-hour operation ending around 5:30 a.m. Iranian time on Monday. Iran continued to attack U.S. bases in the likes of Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq. The standoff shows no sign of easing, with Iran refusing to relent over Hormuz and insisting it has a right to manage traffic through the waterway,” said a Bloomberg report. “The diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days, and ideas from some mediators have been conveyed to the Islamic Republic of Iran,” an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said to reporters. The tit-for-tat attacks are getting deadlier. The U.S. military announced the death of a service member in northern Iraq on Saturday during a “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. That was a day after two other U.S. soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack on Jordan, with another service member still missing from the same strike.

U.S. gasoline price average back above $4 a gallon. U.S. gasoline prices climbed back over the $4-a-gallon mark at the pump as the conflict in the Middle East has escalated, “threatening to exacerbate a global crunch for transportation fuels and stoke inflation,” said Bloomberg. Regular unleaded gasoline averaged $4.003 a gallon, according to daily prices posted by the American Automobile Association, breaking through the $4 dollar threshold after hovering below for a month. Gas prices remained stubbornly high even as crude oil prices fell precipitously in June, dropping as low as $3.79 a gallon before trending back up in early July.

Rubio says China’s Xi still coming to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to America remains on track, days after the U.S. leader’s claims of Chinese election fraud threatened to upend the truce. “We anticipate that the trip is happening in September,” he told reporters before departing for a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila and as reported by Bloomberg. “They continue to send over their teams to prepare for it. I’ve heard nothing otherwise.” President Trump last week accused the Chinese government of interfering with U.S. elections in 2020. When asked on Sunday evening if there would be consequences for Beijing’s alleged actions, Trump told reporters: “We’re going to see. We’ll be speaking to them.”

China keeps interest rates at record lows. The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 14th straight month in July, as widely expected. The move reflected caution over the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East, while Q2 GDP growth eased to its lowest level since Q4 2022, although exports remained strongly supported by AI-related demand. The one-year loan prime rate, the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%. Consumer and producer price pressures persisted amid higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.56%.

Technically, August gold futures are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at $4,075.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $3,963.00 and then at $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September silver futures are higher early today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $58.23 and then at $60.00. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $55.00 and then at $53.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

U.S., Iran continue their military strikes. Concerns are growing that the U.S. and Iran will intensify military hostilities, with the sides clashing for a sixth straight day and Tehran refusing to back down over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. hit southern Iran overnight, striking six road bridges, and Iran responded by firing on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, and on Oman's As Salamah Archipelago. China and Pakistan expressed concern over the developments, calling on both the U.S. and Iran to cease hostilities and resume dialogue, as analysts warn of a potential escalation spiral and increased clashes.

Trump accuses China of meddling in 2020 U.S. elections, risking recent thaw. President Trump accused China of interfering with the U.S. elections in 2020, threatening to upend recently improved ties with the world’s second-biggest economy. Speaking in a prime-time address from the White House on Thursday night, Trump said the Chinese government stole 220 million voter files, including names, addresses and other sensitive data in what is “believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history” — claims that U.S. intelligence agencies have previously debunked, Bloomberg reported.

U.S. technology stocks tumble. U.S. equity futures fell overnight as a sell-off in semiconductor stocks gathered steam, pushing investors to look for alternatives in other corners of the market. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 retreated 2.2%, while S&P 500 futures were down 1.1%. Nvidia Corp. led the Magnificent 7 group lower in premarket trading, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was on the cusp of a bear market and set to extend Thursday’s losses. The chip sell-off was triggered by a surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot, which said its Kimi K3 model could rival the strongest offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. Investors drew parallels with last year’s “DeepSeek moment.” China President Xi Jinping at a tech summit hailed his country’s progress in developing low-cost artificial intelligence and called for a more open technological order. Xi urged the world to adopt an inclusive approach to AI development, encouraging collaboration without rivalries and saying that safety risks must be contained. Meantime, U.S. executives are selling shares at the second-fastest pace in more than 20 years, a classic red flag to some investors because it suggests people with the most corporate knowledge are wary about markets. Corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion of stock during the first half of 2026, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to EPFR Global Market Intelligence and as reported by Bloomberg.

Eurozone inflation also cooling. Following tamer U.S. consumer and producer price readings earlier this week, Eurozone annual inflation today was reported at 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May, year-on-year, and marking its lowest level since February. While inflation continued to ease, it remained above the European Central Bank's 2.0% target. Energy inflation slowed to 8.5% from 10.8%, while price growth also moderated for services, non-energy industrial goods, and food, alcohol, and tobacco. EU core inflation, which excludes energy and food, eased to 2.4% from 2.6% annually. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, while remaining unchanged at 3.6% in Spain.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $4,071.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,973.40 and then at $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $58.23 and then at $60.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $55.00 and then at $53.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

Heavy U.S. strikes on Iran for 5th straight day. The U.S. struck Iran for a fifth consecutive day overnight and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near the country’s main export terminal, as tensions between the warring sides show little sign of abating, said a Bloomberg report. “Iran responded to the U.S.’s barrage on military targets such as command centers and missile sites by firing upon American bases in Kuwait and Jordan. The Jordanian government said it intercepted eight missiles. Tehran seems in no mood to back down in the face of President Trump’s warning that he’ll escalate strikes until the Islamic Republic reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that’s now the focal point of the war,” said the report. “As long as the United States does not accept the Iranian legal system, this strait will remain closed,” a spokesman for Iran’s army said, according to a report from the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

Ukraine drones strike more Russian ships. Ukrainian naval drones hit two large Russia-linked oil tankers in the Black Sea as Moscow and Kyiv expand the scope of their mutual maritime strikes, according to Bloomberg. Separately, Ukraine’s General Staff in a Telegram statement said that a total of six Russia-linked oil tankers and two tug vessels were hit in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov on Thursday, providing no names of the ships, said Bloomberg.

Fed’s beige book: U.S. economy growing modestly… U.S. economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in recent weeks as most regions experienced little to no change in employment levels, the Federal Reserve said in its beige book Wednesday afternoon. Prices increased moderately overall, according to the U.S. central bank’s survey of regional business contacts. “Some contacts tied these cost increases to the conflict in the Middle East; others mentioned tariffs. Consumer prices continued to rise, and a few districts said contacts saw greater price sensitivity among their customers,” the Fed said. The report was based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through July 6 and compiled by Chicago Fed. A number of Fed officials have voiced their concerns around high inflation, warning they might need to raise interest rates this year. Still, both chairman Kevin Warsh and New York Fed president John Williams have recently expressed benign views on the inflation outlook. In the report, the outlook for inflation varied as events in the Middle East injected extra volatility into energy prices. On the labor market, the report showed that employment and wage gains were modest to moderate, though some districts saw wage increases related to competition for skilled workers.

U.S. importers rushing to secure foreign goods… U.S. importers are rushing goods into the nation’s two busiest ports, pushing up ocean transport costs during the wait for more tariffs and an extended bout of economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war, according to a Bloomberg report. “Dockworkers at the Port of Los Angeles handled more than a million containers last month, making it the busiest June on record, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka. Long Beach posted its third-busiest June on record, moving more than 779,000 TEUs, a 10.6% increase over the same month last year. Imports rose 11% to more than 387,000 containers, exports fell 1% to about 86,000 TEUs. The number of empty containers climbed 14% to nearly 306,000, according to port data.

Technically, August gold futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,071.90 and then at this week’s high of $4,112.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,990.40 and then at the June low of $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September silver futures are lower early today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $61.195. Next support is seen at the June low of $56.13 and then at $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0