Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, as some safe-haven demand has surfaced as the U.S.-Iran war is expanding in the Middle East and bond markets have become jittery after the FOMC meeting. A weaker U.S. dollar index today is also a positive for the precious metals. December gold was last up $39.30 at $4,136.60. September silver prices were last up $0.161 at $58.275.

Bond markets signaling Fed not doing enough to combat inflation. “The message from the bond market was clear: For all of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tough talk about taming inflation, he’s not rushing fast enough to deliver. After the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month, investors dumped 30-year Treasury bonds, sending the yield shooting up as much as 14 basis points to nearly 5.23%, a 19-year high,” said a Bloomberg report. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that Warsh won’t manage to rein in inflation that has run above the Fed’s target for five straight years. “As a result, bond holders both pushed down yields on the most short-term Treasuries — a reflection of how they rapidly scaled back bets on immediate increases — and demanded higher payouts on longer-term bonds to compensate for inflation risks in the years ahead. The drop in two-year yields coupled with the rise in 30-year rates made for one of the biggest such steepenings of the yield curve after a Fed meeting since at least the mid-1990s. That steepening indicates Warsh’s “policy strategy lacks credibility,” said Ben Emons, managing director of fixed income at Highline Asset Management and founder of FedWatch Advisors and as reported by Bloomberg.

U.S. Q2 GDP, PCE inflation data on deck. The U.S. economy likely expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, matching the pace recorded in the first quarter and signaling continued resilience despite the conflict in the Middle East, elevated gasoline prices, and the impact of tariffs. Consumer spending is expected to have remained robust, accelerating from the previous quarter as larger tax refunds and the World Cup soccer provided additional support. Business spending on equipment likely posted another quarter of double-digit growth, driven by continued investment in AI-related technologies. However, net trade is expected to have weighed on overall growth, possibly subtracting more than one percentage point from GDP. Also out this morning is the June personal income and outlays report, including its closely watched PCE inflation indexes. The PCE price index is seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year.

Central banks bought 57 tons of gold in the first quarter, 187 tons less than previously thought, the weakest start to a year in well over a decade, said the World Gold Council.

Central-bank demand recovered sharply between April and June, totaling a net 289 tons, a record amount for a second quarter, with Poland and China among the top buyers. The World Gold Council expects central banks' gold purchases to decline this year, after a rebound in demand in the second quarter, with the overall pace of purchasing likely to fall below 2025.

U.S. strikes Iran again as conflict widens across Middle East. The U.S. launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran in response to an attack on American forces in Jordan, escalating a conflict that’s now spreading across the Middle East. Washington hit dozens of military targets in an operation early Thursday aimed at degrading Tehran’s ability to threaten U.S. troops, its Arab allies and commercial shipping in the region, U.S. Central Command said in a post on X and as reported by Bloomberg. Iran targeted a building in northern Kuwait, killing one worker and causing “significant” material damage, the Kuwait Army said, while Jordan said it intercepted five missiles from the Islamic Republic. Two liquefied natural gas vessels at an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean Sea were struck by drones, according to the North African nation’s cabinet, causing fires but no injuries. No party has yet claimed responsibility. Saudi Arabia and Iraq have now also been drawn into the fray, with Riyadh this week joining the US in attacking Tehran-backed militias in Iraq to response to attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have also attacked Saudi vessels in the Red Sea after announcing a blockade targeting the kingdom. “We’re going to be hitting them very hard because it’s our turn to hit them,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. “They know what’s coming,” he said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $84.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.7%.

Technically, December gold futures see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,276.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,178.50 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,053.90 and then at the June low of $4,015.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures also see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at last week’s high of $61.27. Next support is seen at $56.13 and then at the July low of $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold prices are down a bit and silver prices are up a bit in quieter early U.S. trading Wednesday, as traders and investors await the results of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting this afternoon. A higher U.S. dollar index and a slight uptick in Treasury yields are limiting buying interest in the two precious metals at mid-week. August gold was last down $10.80 at $4,027.80. September silver prices were last up $0.276 at $57.81.

Fed’s FOMC meeting ends this afternoon; markets a bit jittery. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on U.S. monetary policy ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. “Hike or Hold? Fed’s Warsh Has Markets Unsure.” That is a Bloomberg headline today. The Fed is expected by most of the marketplace to hold interest rates steady. However, some market participants are eyeing the possibility of a surprise hike as patience with high inflation wears thin. Fed officials have kept rates on hold this year as they wait for temporary price pressures to wane, but concern is mounting that inflation won’t reach the Fed’s target unless higher rates are used to rein in demand.

U.S.-Iran hostilities resume; crude oil rallies. Iran fired on American forces overnight and the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, abruptly ending a days-long lull in hostilities. The U.S. and Iran had paused attacks at the end of last week to give diplomacy another chance, leading to a significant drop in energy prices. However, late Tuesday Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched by Iraqi groups that were targeting its oil facilities for a second straight day. Shortly after, the U.S. military said Iran’s military fired multiple ballistic missiles from Iran at American troops in the region, with all the projectiles being thwarted. Iranian media said Iran’s military targeted a base in Jordan in response to “aggressive US actions,” without offering details, said a Bloomberg report. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia then jointly hit weapons and other sites belonging to “Iran-aligned terrorists” in Iraq, the U.S. military said. Iran had, according to the U.S., directed the same militias to launch more than 30 drone attacks in the past few days. “The latest skirmishing underscores how far Iran and the U.S. are from formally restarting peace negotiations, let alone agreeing a deal to permanently end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” said the Bloomberg report. Crude oil prices jumped today, with Brent trading up almost 4% to $87.10 a barrel. That extends its gain for July to 20%, though it remains far below the level of $100 reached last Thursday, just before the U.S. and Iran halted attacks on one another. Nymex WTI crude oil today rallied to a high of $83.30 a barrel.

Ukraine says it attacked major Rosneft oil refinery in Russia. Ukraine says it attacked a refinery owned by Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft PJSC, overnight--its first strike on a major oil-processing facility in nearly two weeks, Bloomberg reported. “The attack resulted in a fire at the plant, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement on its Telegram account, providing no further details. The Ryazan refinery is around 75 miles from Moscow. It’s been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks,” said the report. Ukraine intensified its strikes on Russia’s downstream industry from May through mid-July to limit Russia’s ability to process crude and produce fuel. The strikes contributed to gasoline shortages across the country. Moscow imposed a temporary ban on exports of most gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. However, in the past two weeks Ukraine has switched focus and stepped up attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The shift has allowed several Russian refineries to resume operations, easing domestic fuel shortages. At the same time, Russia has been hitting key Ukrainian ports and vessels in the Black Sea, halting some commodity loadings.

U.S. risks escalating trade tension with China. The U.S. has tightened curbs on some foreign-made robots and inverters, citing possible “supply chain vulnerabilities” identified by national security officials, said a Bloomberg report. The Federal Communications Commission added “advanced robotic devices” and connected inverters to its registry of communications-related items it considers posing an “unacceptable risk,” said the report. China responded by saying it opposed the use of the concept of national security to target Chinese companies, and will take “all necessary measures” to defend its firms. The U.S. announcement didn’t mention Beijing directly, saying only the curbs apply to foreign-made products. However, given China’s dominance in robotics and inverters, which convert solar and battery power into usable electricity, the move is effectively a targeted ban, said Bloomberg, adding, “Washington’s move will likely add to tension between the economic superpowers even as officials try to maintain a fragile trade truce before President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet again in September.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.614%.

Technically, August gold futures see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $4,085.70. First support is seen at $4,000.00 and then at $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures also see price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at last week’s high of $61.27. Next support is seen at $56.13 and then at the July low of $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday, with pressure coming from keener uncertainty heading into today’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. The marketplace is placing around or just above 30% odds the Fed might raise U.S. interest rates due to inflation concerns. A firmer U.S. dollar index is also working in favor of the precious metals markets bears early today. August gold was last down $47.20 at $4,030.20. September silver prices were last down $1.192 at $57.51.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. There are lingering concerns the Fed could raise interest rates this week. Markets are currently pricing in an over one-third chance of a Fed rate increase on Wednesday, an unusually high level of uncertainty this close to a Fed meeting compared with recent years. Citadel Securities said it expects the Fed to raise rates this week to reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in fighting inflation after the central bank chief repeatedly pledged to restore price stability.

U.S.-Iran tensions appear to be de-escalating; crude oil prices drop again. The U.S. and Iran extended their pause in hostilities Tuesday, with the focus turning to talks between Tehran and Oman over restarting shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. “Omani officials hope to make an announcement signaling progress in the next few days, though there’s no guarantee that will happen, as discussions between Omani and Iranian negotiators are ongoing,” said a Bloomberg report. President Trump said there are currently “very deep talks” with Iran and suggested the negotiations involving Oman are the main track, and that Iran is talking because of the pressure caused by U.S. military strikes, said the report.

China continues to push back on unfair trade allegations. China has mounted a forceful defense of its booming exports, “rejecting Western claims of overcapacity as it braces for escalating trade friction with the U.S. and European Union,” said a Bloomberg report. China’s Ministry of Commerce published a 10,000-character position paper on Tuesday rejecting trading partners’ claims of excess factory production. It comes as Washington continues a probe into Chinese manufacturing, while Brussels faces an October deadline to address the bloc’s record trade imbalance with China. “Some economies have hyped up the so-called China excess-capacity issue,” Vice Commerce Minister Yan Dong said at a briefing in Beijing. The paper was intended to “set the record straight,” he said, and as reported by Bloomberg. “The document amounts to Beijing’s most comprehensive rebuttal yet of an argument increasingly driving Western trade policy: that China’s combination of state support, weak domestic demand and continued factory investment is pushing surplus goods onto global markets and threatening producers elsewhere,” said the report. Meantime, U.S. customs officials have carried out spot inspections on China-linked factories in Vietnam to determine how much value was added before exporting to the U.S. and potential software intellectual property violations, said Bloomberg.

Computer chip stocks melting down. A sell off in semiconductor stocks deepened overnight “as signs of progress in China’s advanced chipmaking compounded worries about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence spending boom,” said a Bloomberg report. U.S. technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%, while in Asia, a 7.5% slump put a Bloomberg gauge of semiconductor shares on course for its biggest decline since April 2025. The MSCI World Semiconductor index has plunged 13% this month to track its worst performance since 2022, although it remains about 33% higher for the year. “When one trade becomes this crowded, investors don’t wait for bad news, they simply need a reason to take profits,” said Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares, said the Bloomberg report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.62%.

August gold futures see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,085.70. First support is seen at $4,000.00 and then at $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures also see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at last week’s high of $61.27. Next support is seen at $57.00 and then at the July low of $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, with some buying support seen from a big drop in crude oil prices overnight that have somewhat and at least temporarily eased inflation concerns just ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Gold and silver bulls are hoping the easing inflation worries could prompt the Fed to lean less hawkish on its monetary policy. A weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in bond yields to start the trading week are also working in favor of the precious metals market bulls. August gold was last up $34.90 at $4,106.00. September silver prices were last up $0.604 at $59.51.

U.S., Iran pause hostilities; crude oil prices drop. The U.S. and Iran held off attacks on each other for a third straight night, helping lift global stock and bond markets and push down oil prices. President Trump, who last week threatened to step up attacks in Iran, is giving diplomacy “some space,” Mike Waltz, Washington’s ambassador to the United Nations, said on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg. The New York Times reported Trump and his advisers decided to hold off on plans to escalate U.S. strikes, partly because of concerns about diminishing stockpiles of air defenses such as Patriot interceptors. Waltz, speaking to NBC, said American forces had all the weaponry they needed. Trump has consistently said “he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies,” a White House spokesman said in a statement. Still, tensions between the warring sides remain high and Iran has said there’s no change to the status of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning it’s likely to continue targeting commercial ships that don’t receive its permission before transiting. Traffic through the vital waterway — through which one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict — remains negligible.

Fed’s FOMC meeting this week. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Wednesday’s rate decision is approaching with more suspense than many anticipated after June consumer price data in the U.S. came in much cooler than expected. Still, many Fed watchers are expecting the FOMC to lean toward the hawkish side.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. September Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply lower and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.63%.

Technically, August gold futures see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,171.40. First support is seen at $4,050.00 and then at $4,024.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September silver futures also see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart stalling. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $61.27 and then at $63.73. Next support is seen at $57.32 and then at the July low of $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5