Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver futures prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading Friday, with short covering and perceived bargain hunting featured after prices hit seven-month lows on Thursday. Some better optimism on a U.S.-Iran peace deal is also working in favor of the gold and silver market bulls on this day, as metals traders reckon and end to the Middle East war would improve global demand prospects for metals. August gold was last up $122.30 at $4,236.30. July silver prices were last up $3.254 at $67.24.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

-- Trump says Iran deal is close after scrapping new military strikes

-- U.S.-Iran deal slowed by web of go-betweens facilitating peace talks

-- Oil and gas prices extend slides on optimism over U.S.-Iran peace deal

-- Benchmark Brent crude oil falls to over 3-month low on peace prospects

President Trump pulled back threatened military strikes against Iran in a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure. Trump announced on social media the attacks were off, claiming again that a deal was close — without any confirmation from Iran, and described it as “a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual,” which would restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars said earlier Thursday that officials had not yet approved the text of any agreement with the U.S., citing an unnamed source, and talks remain stuck over several key issues, including the release of frozen Iranian funds and Iran’s demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Blockbuster SpaceX stock IPO expected today… Shadow markets are pricing a SpaceX stock debut with a potential pop of at least 35%. Derivatives and perpetual futures markets are implying a market value of over $2.3 trillion, with prediction markets giving 70% odds of SpaceX stock closing above $2 trillion in total value on its first day. The pricing indicates strong investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure, which could bode well for upcoming initial public offerings and set a precedent for future mega-IPOs.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower, hit a seven-week low and are trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,267.80 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,191.10 and then at $4,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $69.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold futures prices are sharply lower and hit a nearly seven-month low near midday Wednesday. Silver prices are down and hit a 10-week low overnight. A key U.S. inflation report that is close to problematic pushed gold prices to session lows in early U.S. trading. Technical selling is also featured as gold and silver markets are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. August gold was last down $141.10 at $4,145.70. July silver prices were last down $0.69 at $64.53.

The annual consumer price inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April and in line with market expectations. This represents the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation. Compared to the previous month, the CPI was up 0.5%, slightly less than 0.6% in April, and in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate went up to 2.9% annually, a new high since September 2025, compared to 2.8% in April and matching forecasts.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $89.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,162.60. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,281.10. First support is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,050.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $68.00. Next support is seen at $63.00 and then at $61.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold futures prices are sharply lower and hit a nearly seven-month low near midday Wednesday. Silver prices are down and hit a 10-week low overnight. A key U.S. inflation report that is close to problematic pushed gold prices to session lows in early U.S. trading. Technical selling is also featured as gold and silver markets are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. August gold was last down $141.10 at $4,145.70. July silver prices were last down $0.69 at $64.53.

The annual consumer price inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April and in line with market expectations. This represents the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation. Compared to the previous month, the CPI was up 0.5%, slightly less than 0.6% in April, and in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate went up to 2.9% annually, a new high since September 2025, compared to 2.8% in April and matching forecasts.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $89.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,162.60. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,281.10. First support is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,050.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $68.00. Next support is seen at $63.00 and then at $61.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold sharply down as both metals hit 10-week lows overnight. Technical selling is featured as gold and silver markets are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Worries about higher global interest rates and the resulting higher bond yields are also keeping the gold and silver buyers very tentative at present. August gold was last down $99.10 at $4,188.00. July silver prices were last down $0.935 at $64.32.

Key U.S. inflation report on deck this morning. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April. This would represent the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline U.S. inflation, driven largely by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. However, the broader pass-through to consumer prices is expected to remain relatively limited. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are projected to increase by 0.5% in May, following a 0.6% rise in April. Gasoline prices likely went up around 9%, but the fading impact of a one-off adjustment to rent data should have a moderating effect on inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to edge up to 2.9% year-on-year, a fresh-high since September 2025, from 2.8% in April. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. TradingEconomics.com

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

-- U.S., Iran attack each other over Apache downed near Hormuz Strait

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes overnight after President Trump retaliated against Tehran for shooting down an American Apache helicopter. The U.S. military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missiles on four American targets and fired drones at the U.S.'s main naval base in the Middle East, with no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks. The skirmishes further jolted a two-month-old truce and exposed the fragility of talks between the warring sides aimed at securing peace in the Middle East.

Global shipping price rates declining… A key measure of bulk shipping rates saw prices dropping for an eighth consecutive day as demand in the larger-vessel segments cooled. The Baltic Dry Index fell 3.4% to 2,818 points on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak since mid-January. The fall in the Capesize market coincides with a rise in the number of ballasters, or vessels sailing without cargo, which can signal weakening demand relative to vessel supply. “It’s attributed to the recent loss of momentum in the Capesize segment, but we should note that it has still delivered the strongest first half of the year in the past three years,” said Maria Bertzeletou, a senior market analyst at Signal Group and as reported by Bloomberg. “The index has been on a tear this year, supported by strong demand and volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The Capesize segment accounts for about 40% of the Baltic Dry Index and is the vessel class most exposed to iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient,” said the report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,162.60. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,281.10 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at $4,162.60 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $58.00. Next support is seen at $63.00 and then at $61.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold and silver futures prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, with both markets notching seven-month lows overnight. More technical selling is featured today as gold and silver markets are in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Metals traders are bracing for this morning’s U.S. producer price index, fearing it will run hot on inflation. August gold was last down $25.10 at $4,108.60. July silver prices were last down $0.83 at $63.94.

Today’s U.S. producer price index seen running hot. U.S. producer prices likely increased by 0.7% month-over-month in May, following a 1.4% surge in April, which was the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Energy prices are expected to remain a major driver of inflation, particularly gasoline and jet fuel. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise by 0.5% in May, moderating from the 1% increase recorded in April. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month to 6.4%, up from 6% in April and marking its highest level since December 2022. Meanwhile, annual core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 5.4% annually, from 5.2%, also reaching its highest reading since December of 2022. The PPI report follows Wednesday’s consumer price index report for May that also ran hot.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--U.S. steps up strikes against Iran

-- Ship traffic thins in Persian Gulf as U.S.-Iran tensions intensify

-- Trump vows more strikes on Iran today if it holds out on deal

The U.S. launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day after President Trump accused that country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. U.S. Central Command said it had begun "additional self-defense strikes" at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, targeting surveillance systems, air defense sites and communications networks. Trump said in a Fox News interview that he had spoken with top Iranian officials Wednesday and they had asked him to halt the bombing, but he added the U.S. would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an agreement. At the same time, a growing number of oil tankers are moving through Hormuz, boosting the flow from a trickle to a stream. President Trump said on Wednesday that more than 100 million barrels have now crossed the waterway since a secret U.S. mission began supporting maritime trade in the region. Those offsets have helped bring oil prices down by more than a quarter since the war began, even though a lasting peace deal has remained elusive.

European Central Bank set to raise interest rates. The European Central Bank today is set to raise its interest rates for the first time since 2023 due to the upswing in inflation caused by the Iran war and spiking energy prices. Economists expect the deposit rate to be lifted by a quarter point to 2.25%, with new quarterly forecasts likely to suggest inflation will quicken further. Today’s ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging.

An Asian currency contagion? Asian central banks are increasingly facing currency pressures originating outside their borders, Bloomberg reported today. “From South Korea to India and the Philippines, policymakers have ramped up efforts to curb offshore forex speculation as high oil prices, foreign fund exodus and a strong dollar pressure regional currencies.” South Korea’s finance ministry said on Sunday it will step up oversight of offshore currency derivatives. The Philippines has asked banks to ensure non-deliverable forward contracts are limited to economic purposes, while India has tightened limits on banks’ net open position to $100 million. Indonesia, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday, has said its central bank is active in currency markets “around the world, around the clock” to support the rupiah. “The warnings underscore concerns among Asian policymakers that offshore trading is adding to pressure on currencies. The oil-price shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict has worsened the problem, hitting the region’s energy-importing nations.

Technically, August gold futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,046.20 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and the

Gold and silver futures prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading Friday, with short covering and perceived bargain hunting featured after prices hit seven-month lows on Thursday. Some better optimism on a U.S.-Iran peace deal is also working in favor of the gold and silver market bulls on this day, as metals traders reckon and end to the Middle East war would improve global demand prospects for metals. August gold was last up $122.30 at $4,236.30. July silver prices were last up $3.254 at $67.24.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--Trump says Iran deal is close after scrapping new military strikes

--U.S.-Iran deal slowed by web of go-betweens facilitating peace talks

-- Oil and gas prices extend slides on optimism over U.S.-Iran peace deal

-- Benchmark Brent crude oil falls to over 3-month low on peace prospects

President Trump pulled back threatened military strikes against Iran in a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure. Trump announced on social media the attacks were off, claiming again that a deal was close — without any confirmation from Iran, and described it as “a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual,” which would restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars said earlier Thursday that officials had not yet approved the text of any agreement with the U.S., citing an unnamed source, and talks remain stuck over several key issues, including the release of frozen Iranian funds and Iran’s demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Blockbuster SpaceX stock IPO expected today… Shadow markets are pricing a SpaceX stock debut with a potential pop of at least 35%. Derivatives and perpetual futures markets are implying a market value of over $2.3 trillion, with prediction markets giving 70% odds of SpaceX stock closing above $2 trillion in total value on its first day. The pricing indicates strong investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure, which could bode well for upcoming initial public offerings and set a precedent for future mega-IPOs.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower, hit a seven-week low and are trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,267.80 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,191.10 and then at $4,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $69.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold and silver futures prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, with both markets notching seven-month lows overnight. More technical selling is featured today as gold and silver markets are in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Metals traders are bracing for this morning’s U.S. producer price index, fearing it will run hot on inflation. August gold was last down $25.10 at $4,108.60. July silver prices were last down $0.83 at $63.94.

Today’s U.S. producer price index seen running hot. U.S. producer prices likely increased by 0.7% month-over-month in May, following a 1.4% surge in April, which was the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Energy prices are expected to remain a major driver of inflation, particularly gasoline and jet fuel. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise by 0.5% in May, moderating from the 1% increase recorded in April. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month to 6.4%, up from 6% in April and marking its highest level since December 2022. Meanwhile, annual core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 5.4% annually, from 5.2%, also reaching its highest reading since December of 2022. The PPI report follows Wednesday’s consumer price index report for May that also ran hot.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--U.S. steps up strikes against Iran

-- Ship traffic thins in Persian Gulf as U.S.-Iran tensions intensify

-- Trump vows more strikes on Iran today if it holds out on deal

The U.S. launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day after President Trump accused that country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. U.S. Central Command said it had begun "additional self-defense strikes" at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, targeting surveillance systems, air defense sites and communications networks. Trump said in a Fox News interview that he had spoken with top Iranian officials Wednesday and they had asked him to halt the bombing, but he added the U.S. would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an agreement. At the same time, a growing number of oil tankers are moving through Hormuz, boosting the flow from a trickle to a stream. President Trump said on Wednesday that more than 100 million barrels have now crossed the waterway since a secret U.S. mission began supporting maritime trade in the region. Those offsets have helped bring oil prices down by more than a quarter since the war began, even though a lasting peace deal has remained elusive.

European Central Bank set to raise interest rates. The European Central Bank today is set to raise its interest rates for the first time since 2023 due to the upswing in inflation caused by the Iran war and spiking energy prices. Economists expect the deposit rate to be lifted by a quarter point to 2.25%, with new quarterly forecasts likely to suggest inflation will quicken further. Today’s ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging.

An Asian currency contagion? Asian central banks are increasingly facing currency pressures originating outside their borders, Bloomberg reported today. “From South Korea to India and the Philippines, policymakers have ramped up efforts to curb offshore forex speculation as high oil prices, foreign fund exodus and a strong dollar pressure regional currencies.” South Korea’s finance ministry said on Sunday it will step up oversight of offshore currency derivatives. The Philippines has asked banks to ensure non-deliverable forward contracts are limited to economic purposes, while India has tightened limits on banks’ net open position to $100 million. Indonesia, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday, has said its central bank is active in currency markets “around the world, around the clock” to support the rupiah. “The warnings underscore concerns among Asian policymakers that offshore trading is adding to pressure on currencies. The oil-price shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict has worsened the problem, hitting the region’s energy-importing nations.

Technically, August gold futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,046.20 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then

Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold sharply down as both metals hit 10-week lows overnight. Technical selling is featured as gold and silver markets are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Worries about higher global interest rates and the resulting higher bond yields are also keeping the gold and silver buyers very tentative at present. August gold was last down $99.10 at $4,188.00. July silver prices were last down $0.935 at $64.32.

Key U.S. inflation report on deck this morning. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April. This would represent the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline U.S. inflation, driven largely by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. However, the broader pass-through to consumer prices is expected to remain relatively limited. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are projected to increase by 0.5% in May, following a 0.6% rise in April. Gasoline prices likely went up around 9%, but the fading impact of a one-off adjustment to rent data should have a moderating effect on inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to edge up to 2.9% year-on-year, a fresh-high since September 2025, from 2.8% in April. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. TradingEconomics.com

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

-- U.S., Iran attack each other over Apache downed near Hormuz Strait

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes overnight after President Trump retaliated against Tehran for shooting down an American Apache helicopter. The U.S. military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missiles on four American targets and fired drones at the U.S.'s main naval base in the Middle East, with no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks. The skirmishes further jolted a two-month-old truce and exposed the fragility of talks between the warring sides aimed at securing peace in the Middle East.

Global shipping price rates declining… A key measure of bulk shipping rates saw prices dropping for an eighth consecutive day as demand in the larger-vessel segments cooled. The Baltic Dry Index fell 3.4% to 2,818 points on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak since mid-January. The fall in the Capesize market coincides with a rise in the number of ballasters, or vessels sailing without cargo, which can signal weakening demand relative to vessel supply. “It’s attributed to the recent loss of momentum in the Capesize segment, but we should note that it has still delivered the strongest first half of the year in the past three years,” said Maria Bertzeletou, a senior market analyst at Signal Group and as reported by Bloomberg. “The index has been on a tear this year, supported by strong demand and volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The Capesize segment accounts for about 40% of the Baltic Dry Index and is the vessel class most exposed to iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient,” said the report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,162.60. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,281.10 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at $4,162.60 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $58.00. Next support is seen at $63.00 and then at $61.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0