Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Investors turning away from U.S. stocks: Bank of America. Investors are turning away from U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since March, according to Bank of America Corp and as reported by Bloomberg. The country’s stock funds had $17.2 billion outflows in the week through July 1, the team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, citing EPFR Global data. Investors turned to some international stocks instead, with Japanese equities seeing their biggest inflows in seven weeks at $1.9 billion. The mood around U.S. stocks is turning after a strong start to the year in terms of fund flows. Last week, American equity funds registered their first redemptions in three months. “Skepticism around high artificial-intelligence valuations continued to roil chip stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 11% over the past two sessions, the report said.

Lighter U.S. data week features FOMC minutes, Treasury auctions. The U.S. bond market faces a test of investor demand for longer-dated maturities, with auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries. The Treasury’s $119 billion week of auctions kicks off Tuesday with 3-year notes, followed by the sale of benchmark 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. Investors will also be watching the release of minutes from the June Fed FOMC meeting for insight into any Fed officials’ shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

A China spot gold ETF has overtaken the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF to become the country’s largest exchange-traded fund, highlighting the extent at which state-backed support for the stock market has faded. The Huaan Yifu Gold ETF now has a market capitalization of 90 billion yuan, edging past the 83 billion yuan in the CSI 300 ETF. The reshuffling of China’s largest ETFs offers a picture of where investors are putting their money as state support for the market is scaled back.

OPEC+ to raise its collective crude oil output, prompting talk of glut. Major OPEC+ members agreed in a video conference Sunday to add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target for next month. The increase is part of the group's plan to finish reversing output curbs made a few years ago and means they've added 940,000 barrels a day to quotas since the war began. OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output or fighting over market share — a potential price war — as some forecasters predict the re-emergence of a global crude oil glut. ”The dramatic switch from famine to feast means that worries of an oil-led inflation spike are all but vanquished, and major oil producers may soon face questions about whether they are ready to curb supply to prop up prices,” said a Bloomberg report. “Analysts have warned that the market is at risk of a glut heading into next year, with the physical oil market flashing signs of weakness and suppliers struggling to find buyers for their oil.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $68.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.46%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,750.00. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,215.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,133.80 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $63.73 and then at $65.00. Next support is seen at $61.00 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5