There may be some fresh clues on U.S. monetary policy in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has vowed to restore price stability, spurring bets on interest-rate hikes. Traders currently see the Fed raising rates at least once this year. That is in stark contrast from before the start of the Iran war in late February, when traders still saw the central bank lowering borrowing costs in 2026.
Global traders have turned the most positive on the outlook for the U.S. dollar since 2015 as bets that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer have fueled a monthlong rally in the U.S. currency. “Wagers on a stronger dollar have increased to nearly $40 billion as of June 30 — the highest amount in more than a decade, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Monday,” and as reported by Bloomberg. “The latest CFTC data, which includes positions held by asset managers, hedge funds and currency speculators, arrives as the dollar wrapped up a 2% rise in June — one of the best monthly performances this past year.
In overnight news, Hong Kong has launched the trial operation of a new gold clearing system, backed by several major banks, in a key step toward its ambition to become a significant bullion-trading hub with price-setting power. The mechanism will help lay the groundwork for the city to contribute a global reference rate for the gold-trading market, according to Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee. The government-owned Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Ltd will offer a comprehensive suite of services, including gold deposits and withdrawals to transaction settlements for the over-the-counter market.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index just slightly firmer. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.5%.
Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,750.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,215.50 and then at $4,250.00. First support is seen at $4,125.00 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
September silver futures prices are also trending down. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $62.59 and then at this week’s high of $63.73. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $60.71 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
