Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are posting good gains near midday Thursday, on upside price corrections following Wednesday’s solid losses. Some improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace late this week has also aided the precious metals bulls. U.S. stock indexes are firmer and bond yields have stabilized. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker and crude oil prices are modestly down. These markets are likely reacting in part to reports President Trump said Iran called him last night and wanted resume negotiating a peace deal. Gold and silver metals bulls are also stepping in to do some perceived bargain hunting after the recent price pressure. August gold was last up $52.00 at $4,133.90. September silver prices were last up $2.015 at $60.555.

FOMC minutes Wednesday p.m. show a divided Federal Reserve. Fed officials were divided on the future of U.S. interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and monetary policy, minutes from the FOMC meeting in June showed. Participants generally assessed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and a few commented that in light of these developments there was a case for raising interest rates. Most participants also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all the FOMC participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%. However, under their most likely economic outlook, many Fed officials expected interest rates to end the year at or slightly below their current level. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, in line with expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near slightly down. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.55%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4,192.40 and then at this week’s high of $4,215.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,063.40 and then at this week’s low of $4,032.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $61.455 and then at this week’s high of $63.73. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $57.605 and then at the June low of $56.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, on upside price corrections following Wednesday’s solid losses. The two precious metals bulls are also stepping in to do some perceived bargain hunting after the recent price pressure. August gold was last up $29.50 at $4,112.60. September silver prices were last up $0.765 at $59.31.

U.S., Iran trade military strikes. The U.S. military struck Iran for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf, raising fears that the tit-for-tat attacks may derail talks on a permanent peace deal. U.S. Central Command said on X it hit about 90 targets on Wednesday “to further degrade” the Islamic Republic’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency and as reported by Bloomberg. “We just hit them very hard, and I say we hit them 20 to 1. Every time they hit us, we’ll hit them 20,” President Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “I don’t know. We’d win it very quickly. We have many ways we could win,” Trump said when he was asked whether the U.S. and Iran were returning to an all-out war. Centcom said it targeted Iran’s air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, and missile and drone storage sites.

FOMC minutes show a divided Federal Reserve. Fed officials were divided on the future of U.S. interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and monetary policy, minutes from the FOMC meeting in June showed. Participants generally assessed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and a few commented that in light of these developments there was a case for raising interest rates. Most participants also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all the FOMC participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%. However, under their most likely economic outlook, many Fed officials expected interest rates to end the year at or slightly below their current level. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, in line with expectations.

China’s annual inflation rate cools. China's annual inflation eased to 1.0% in June from 1.2% in both April and May, slightly below market expectations of 1.1%, marking the softest increase in three months. Non-food inflation slowed (1.5% vs 1.9% in May) due to a moderation in transport costs (4.1% vs 5.4%), as the government cut domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices in June amid lower energy prices following an easing of the Middle East conflict. On the food side, prices fell for the third consecutive month (-1.6% vs -1.7%), largely due to persistently weak pork prices and continued declines in fresh fruit prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 1.0% year-on-year, following a 1.1% rise in May. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.3% after edging down 0.1% in May, compared with market forecasts of a 0.2% decline.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.56%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4,144.70 and then at Tuesday’s high of $4,192.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,063.40 and then at this week’s low of $4,032.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $61.455. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $57.605 and then at the June low of $56.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0