Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are moderately down in early U.S. trading Wednesday, on downside price corrections following Tuesday’s decent gains and ahead of another key U.S. inflation report and more testimony to Congress from Fed Chair Warsh. August gold was last down $35.20 at $4,034.00. September silver prices were last down $0.764 at $58.30.

U.S. producer price index on deck. U.S. producer prices are expected to have remained unchanged in June, marking the weakest monthly reading in 10 months, after increasing by 1.1% in each of the previous two months. The moderation was likely driven by lower energy prices following the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, core producer prices are forecast to rise by 0.4% in June, matching May's increase. On an annual basis, today’s PPI report is expected to show headline producer inflation easing to 6.2% from 6.5%, marking its first slowdown in eight months after reaching its highest level since November 2022. By contrast, annual core producer inflation is projected to accelerate to 5.2% from 4.9%, its highest reading since December 2022. TradingEconomics.com

Warsh says U.S. inflation fight not over. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday said slowing inflation in June’s consumer price index report doesn’t mean the Fed’s mission is accomplished and hinted at how the U.S. central bank may eventually have to respond. In testimony to congressional members, Warsh made it clear the options to curb inflation include interest rates, saying, “We have the tools to do it” and that he will ask colleagues to discuss the extent and timing of deploying those tools. Economists said Warsh’s remarks were the closest he has come to saying out loud that U.S. monetary policy may need to be tightened but did not project a near-term interest rate hike. Warsh testifies in front of the Senate today.

U.S. inflicting heavy strikes against Iran. President Trump said he would intensify the U.S.’s bombardment against Iran until it stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. American forces hit Iranian military targets overnight for a fourth straight day, again prompting counterstrikes from Tehran on U.S. bases in Gulf Arab states, including Kuwait and Bahrain. “A U.S.-Iran interim peace deal signed around a month ago has all but collapsed over the past week as the two sides feud over control of the vital strait, through which the likes of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates send most of their energy exports,” said a Bloomberg report. Trump pledged to bomb again on Wednesday night and continue until Iran relents. “We’re going to hit them very hard tomorrow night,” he told Fox News on Tuesday. “We’re going to hit them very hard the night after. And then next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. We’re going to knock out all of their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.” Trump backed away from his plan for a 20% charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but resumed a blockade on Iranian shipping.

China’s economic growth unexpectedly slows. China's economy expanded 4.3%, year-on-year, in the second quarter, slowing from 5.0% in the first quarter and missing market expectations of 4.5%. It marked the weakest annual growth since Q4 2022, as soft domestic demand, subdued private investment and the prolonged property downturn outweighed continued support from resilient AI-related exports. The latest reading also fell below the lower end of Beijing's 4.5%–5.0% annual growth target, underscoring the uneven recovery and reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy support. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement that external uncertainties remained elevated, while the economy continued to face an imbalance between robust supply and weak demand. For the first half of 2026, GDP grew 4.7%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.6%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,238.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,068.60 and then at this week’s high of $4,112.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,990.40 and then at the June low of $3,955.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $61.195. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $57.165 and then at the June low of $56.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0