The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell sank by 22,000 to 187,000 on the week to July 18, well under expectations that it would increase to 212,000, for the lowest claim count in nearly 60 years. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the U.S., fell by 2,000, to 1,796,000, on the previous week following an aggressive downward revision to the first period of July. The data continued to reflect a strong labor market in the U.S., aligned with statements from FOMC members that see the U.S. economy in full employment.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note continued to climb to 4.71% today, rising for a fourth consecutive session to its highest level since January of 2025, as surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions fueled expectations that the Fed will need to raise interest rates. Markets are now pricing in a more than 33% chance of a rate hike next week, while the probability of a September increase has climbed above 78%, up from 61% a day earlier.
Hostilities in the Middle East continue to intensify, with no signs of a near-term resolution. As a result, oil prices have surged nearly 31% above their pre-conflict levels seen earlier this month.
Meantime, the European Central Bank today left its key interest rates unchanged, following a 25bp increase in June, the first rate hike in three years, driven by rising energy prices and persistent inflationary pressures.
In other news, silver imports into India have slowed sharply due to a new licensing regime disrupting shipments, pushing local premiums to a multi-month high. Most banks have yet to secure the permits needed to import silver and remain awaiting government approval, with only a handful having obtained licenses. The resulting supply squeeze has pushed the estimated 30-day average premium to the highest since at least 2019, with the domestic premium nearing "squeeze-like territory" as demand holds steady, Bloomberg reported.
Iran-backed Houthis claimed their first attack on commercial ships in recent months, “opening a new front in the U.S.-Iran war that has already disrupted global energy supplies and rattled bond markets,” said a Bloomberg report. Meantime, the U.S. carried out its 12th consecutive day of airstrikes on Iranian military sites overnight, including missile and air-defense facilities. President Trump has said American forces will destroy one bridge or power plant each time Iran shoots at vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The hostilities show little sign of easing. The attacks by the Houthis have escalated the conflict further. Brent crude oil prices today hit $100 a barrel.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply up, hit a two-month high and trading around $92.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.7%.
Technically, August gold futures see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $4,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,955.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,144.00 and then at this week’s high of $4,171.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $4,042.50 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
September silver futures also see a price downtrend on the daily bar chart that has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at this week’s high of $61.27. Next support is seen at $57.00 and then at $55.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
