The monthly ADP employment report showed private businesses in the U.S. added 38,000 jobs in August, the least since January, following an upwardly revised 46,000 in July and below forecasts of 47,000. Today’s report reflects a broader slowdown in the labor market. Meanwhile, pay gains held steady.
Also out today, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 0.9% month over month in July 2026, rebounding from a revised 0.2% decline in June and beating market expectations of a 0.6% increase. The increase was led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment orders, driven by a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft and parts. Orders also rose for defense aircraft and parts (4.9%), ships and boats (5.3%) and motor vehicles (0.4%).
A sell off in U.S. Treasuries overnight pushed the yield gap between U.S. and Chinese 10-year securities back toward an all-time high, raising the risk of capital outflow from China. “The widening spread reflects starkly contrasting monetary policy paths, with the Federal Reserve under pressure to raise interest rates and the People’s Bank of China keeping borrowing costs low. The widening U.S.-China yield gap has had little impact on the yuan, which traded little changed at 6.72 per U.S. dollar today, lingering near the strongest level since early 2023,” said a Bloomberg report. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield inched as high as 4.81% in Asian trading overnight, its highest level in nearly three years, while Chinese yields of a similar security held steady at 1.69%. Meantime, bond traders are scrambling to shield their portfolios against further losses in Treasuries, as worries over the budget deficit and inflation push yields toward multiyear highs. Investors have shelled out millions of dollars in premium over recent sessions on Treasury options that would benefit if yields continued climbing. The global slide in bond prices is due in part to ongoing fiscal challenges and a war-fueled oil price surge that has further stoked inflation fears.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly down. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $90.25 a barrel, hitting a six-week high overnight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.8%.
Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,500.00 and then at $4,550.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,329.40 and then at $4,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5
December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $68.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $63.88 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
