The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, following an upwardly revised 23,000 rise in July and much higher than expectations of a 56,000 gain. Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in August, in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 115,000 to 7.03 million, while total employment surged by 569,000 to 162.75 million. The labor force expanded by 683,000 to 169.78 million, lifting the labor force participation rate to 61.6% from a five-year low of 61.4% in July. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.1%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, eased to 7.7% from 7.9%, pointing to a modest improvement in broader labor-market conditions. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, rose by 10 cents, or 0.3% over a month to $37.75 in August, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in July and matching market forecasts. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $32.53. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1%. Today’s report runs much hotter than expected and fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks.
The World Gold Council reports central banks continued their gold accumulation in July with net buying reported at 23t. Emerging markets have also continued to accumulate gold this month with China (20t) and Poland (8t) taking the lead (Chart 1). Notably, activity from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has picked up pace in recent months, with double-digit monthly purchases of gold since May 2026. Russia was the top net seller this month, posting sales of 6t, followed by Turkey, Jordan and Uzbekistan at 1t each. On a y-t-d basis, central banks reported purchases have totaled around 130t of gold. This compares to a reported ~160t which was purchased over the same period last year.
Meantime, some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their long gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure. Fund managers at companies including Amundi SA, Pictet Asset Management Ltd., and Fidelity International Ltd. added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high. Investors’ renewed appetite for gold is reflected in funds’ net-long position, which rose to its highest level so far this year, as they consider gold a hedge within a broader investment portfolio, said a Bloomberg report.
U.S. envoys traveling to Moscow, Kyiv to talk peace. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend, according to Russia’s state-run Tass news service and as reported by Bloomberg. They’re likely to travel to Moscow first and then head to Kyiv, Tass reported today, citing a person familiar that it didn’t identify. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he expected to meet with U.S. envoys within the coming days. It would be the envoys’ first visit to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. Witkoff and Kushner have visited Russia multiple times for talks with President Vladimir Putin and his officials in an effort to broker a peace deal that has so far proved elusive. Putin said Thursday that Russia and Ukraine need to reach agreement between themselves first of all, though powers such as the U.S. and China can help. “Is there a chance (for peace)? In my view, yes it exists,” Putin said.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.8%.
Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,500.00 and then at this week’s high of $4,558.50. First support is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,350.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $68.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at this week’s low of $63.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5
